U of M MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2018-2019

[WM Wolverine]

I'll take a 3 out west than a 2-seed with Duke.

[hack]

I'd love to be in the West. Nevada lost, so there may be an opening there to nab that spot.

But if it's a #2 in Duke's region, well, that's fine. So be it. I think some of us here don't see a 24-4 juggernaut seeing as they haven't played a complete game in a while, but this is an increasingly quantitative process.

[hack]

Duke lost tonight, and Kentucky's down 11 at the half to Arkansas. UNC played tight by Cuse.

[lineygoblue]

I think I'd like to see a Michigan v Duke matchup in the Regional Finals. Even if Little Lebron is 100%. I would have to wonder if all those freshmen have the patience to run their offense against Michigan's defense for a full 40 minutes. Duke is more of a high-flying, run-the-floor team, while Michigan (when they are at their best) runs a lot of ball screens, and is very patient. On defense, Michigan's team movement, switching, etc., is as good as any team in the country. And, I'd think that maybe their experience would be a factor in their favor as well. Duke could certainly beat Michigan, but I wouldn't consider them to be a lock.

[hack]

My thoughts as well. Can slow them down, hit them with a larger playbook, and have been there before. All is going to depend on Zion though, and they'd have to make their 3s.

[iam416]

There would have to be an outlier performance for M to beat Duke, whether it was M shooting the lights out or Duke being dead cold. M has been above 70 once in the past 11 games (against Rutgers -- a surprisingly non-awful Rutgers). I think the fat part of the bell curve for Duke scoring against M is about 75. They scored 72 against UVa on a regular offensive night and 81 on a very good offensive night. UVa is always ridiculously good on defense. They scored 69 against TT early in the season, as well.

If I were M, I'd take UVa first and then UK. I'd take UVa because M is equipped to play a slog game and UVa can't score consistently enough to put tons of pressure on M. If M hits 40% of 3s then they can get up a ton of pressure on Virginia. IMO, Virginia's offensive limitations and defensive excellence are precisely why they don't do well in a tournaments. They're always at risk if the opponent has one of those nights and when you have to win 6 odds are you'll run into one of those nights. Of course, the rate high in OEff, so what do I know.

I don't think Calipari is much of an in-game coach. It's all pretty straight-forward -- out-talent you. I'd like JB in a matchup with UK and I'd really like M's chances to frustrate UK far more than their chances to frustrate Duke and Coach K.

I haven't seen enough of Gonzaga. I mean, they fall off the radar after December. They looked pretty damn good early, but that doesn't mean a great deal now.

[WM Wolverine]

Concur on Virginia, similar styles but they can get the ball in the basket a bit better, more efficiently. I don't like this teams shooting, guard/wing play enough in the NCAA but favorable matchups/seeding could give us an easy enough path and like Talent said, this team can beat anyone if the shots just happen to fall that night...

Poole needs to take 3 less bad shots a game and is only a good, not excellent shooter... Both Poole and Matthews can penetrate (Poole can finish, Matthews pulls up for low percentage jumpers) but opposing teams know they aren't looking to setup their teammates. Same could be said of Iggy, but that's to be expected of a power forward... Z would be terrific if he had a reliable jumper but he doesn't...

[iam416]

M plays roughly 65 possessions per game if all is going to plan. M is probably going to score on roughly 32 of those. I don't know what the last month looks like, but my guess is possessions are still around 65, but scoring has dropped to 28-30.

In any event, that's how small the margin is. Against a team like Duke they would, IMO, need to score on 3 more possessions to be really in the game. If they only scored on 28-29 possessions then odds are they would get absolutely run.

What's interesting is that Virginia's tempo is by far and away the lowest of any tourney team the lowest in the entire country -- 59! And, of course, they have best DEff. And Duke was able to play against that morass to the tune of 153 points in 2 games.

[hack]

Duke is obviously the team you want to beat the most, but should be the team you want to play the least. I agree that Michigan matches up well against UVa and Kentucky for the reasons you mentioned. It would be nice to get a crack at Kentucky too. Gonzaga isn't shit, but apart from the year they made that good run, it seems to me they usually go down to a lesser-ranked team that plays in a better conference. You can get an admirable SOS with premium matchups in December and Gonzaga does that, but that's doesn't prepare you for the tourney as well as playing 20 challenging conference games like B10 teams might.

But, as a secondary goal to winning the damn thing, nothing would be more satisfying than a win against Duke. Michigan can do that if they play at or near their best. This is a good year to match up against a typical Duke team.

[WM Wolverine]

Re: Duke... Barrett is always the best player on the court unless Zion is on the floor and gets ignored when talking about Duke.

[AlabamAlum]

[iam416]

Gonzaga is, indeed, prone to tournament failure. Whoever draws Gonzaga could end up with an automatic FF path similar to what M had last year. Unless, of course, Alabama is the team that knocks the Zags off. Then you're losing in the E8.

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[AlabamAlum]

[THE_WIZARD_]

^{Shit. Wrong forum.HARBAUGH!!!!!!}