U of M MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2018-2019

[WM Wolverine]

I'm really excited to see a M team that can get to the basket, rebound, hit the three, and play excellent defense. I'll take the over on win total.

[Hannibal]

Last year's team overachieved, big time. It's pretty hard to surpass winning the B1G tourney and making the national title game -- so much that getting stopped in the round of 32 would be a crushing disappointment. I'm looking forward to the season though.

[hack]

I don't know if they overachieved or not. . You're probably right. Hard to factor in making the final game, as they played low seeds most of the way there. Any time Beilein starts with a question at PG, it's going to be an in-season improvement kind of year. But they were damn good team by early February, though with a weak schedule and yet with few marquee-win opportunities, so the seeding projections made them look worse than they really were, perhaps. No question that if Beilein has it hitting on most cylinders by March, the nature of the post-season is going to favor him.

[WM Wolverine]

In the NCAA tourney M had fortunate draws which aided their run to the title game. Still really impressed by that team and they are deserving of their accomplishments.

[*JD*]

Michigan can't replace Mo and Jordan Poole's improvement from Freshman to Sophomore is a big key but this team should be a top 10 team through the season. I think Iggy is going to threaten to be our first one-and-done since Jamal Crawford. I hope he's at least a 2-year guy but I think he's really versatile and will be a big scorer.

[WM Wolverine]

Counting on lots of progression and production from underclassmen though these freshman and sophomores are really talented.

[The Oracle]

Haven't listened to mgoblog podcast preview just yet, but THIS IS THE YEAR. Junior PG with a soph backing him -- that's a lot of PG experience for a Beilein team these days. I'm confident Z's going to be a 37%+ shooter from 3 -- nobody's taking that kid's minutes. He knows what he has to do, and has shown he can shoot very well from 3 in the low-stakes December/January portion of the season. Matthews will come back with a better 3 too, and a more rounded game. We'll see if he can vary his tendencies that the conference knew really well last year. Between Matthews and Poole and Iggy, there are three get-you-some-buckets-when-the-offense can't guys, which is good because the offense isn't going to be smooth. Teske is ready to anchor an elite defense, set picks, and hopefully nail elbow jumpers. Livers isn't chopped, either. Could come back ready to rebound and spot up. I'll not be surprised if Beilein can't resist getting Castleton out there.

Beilein has had plenty of time to figure out how to get all this done without the Mo pick/roll. Michigan fell apart without some sort of 1/5 p/r three years ago, but Teske isn't Donnal. It may be a somewhat constipated offense with less shooting than Beilein wants and more one-on-one ability than he's had in the past, but that's going to be enough, given the defense potential.

I'm going to be very disappointed if Michigan doesn't come in expecting to be heavy favorites in almost every game of the season. This is the year to stop being the catch-a-fire underdog nobody wants to play. Could be the last year people just assume MSU will be better than us, and it looks like the conference is going to be worse than last year, even. I haven't looked at the schedule yet, but this might be one of those years where you get a 4-loss team or less. Must get the double-bye in the conference tournament; must get a high seed. Must learn from Villanova, who plays a similar game on offense but also knows how to bully people around on the court and put fouls on people.

I'M REALLY FUCKING EXCITED ABOUT THIS YEAR'S TEAM!

You better pump the brakes a bit. A 4 loss team?????? Closer to 10 than 5, IMO. Wagner, MAAR and to a lesser extent DRob bailed them out a ton offensively last year. I'm not confident in Zs or Matthews being much more than 33-33% from 3. Brooks will back up more 2 than 1 and I think all the freshmen besides Iggy will take 10+ games to acclimate.

I think record wise will be similar to last year, 23-8, 24-7 type, but still playing their best come tourney time after Johns, DDJ get set and Poole grows into his hunter role.

[hack]

I AM NOT GOING TO LOSE THE REST OF THIS DAY TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU ASSHOLE. I HAVE A FUCKING DEADLINE OK?

(I will be back soon. It's time to look at the schedule before we go further.)

(It's also time to look at the pic of Iggy vs Castleton on the mgoblog podcast post. See why Iggy is going to rip through November and December, but I think he'll have a tough January before adjusting.)

[hack]

OK, quick break from work. IMO we made the final four last year and played ultimately one good offensive game in the tournament. We are conditioned to panic about the offense, but times have changed. In particular because we have more guys now that can manufacture points than ever before in Poole, Matthews and Iggy. Iggy could be one-and-done and his whole game is just getting buckets. I have a feeling he goes wild in Nov/Dec, and has to work a lot harder and has some struggles in January, but by mid-February will be a serious weapon. I'm betting that the defense carries it and the offense smoothes itself out over the course of the season, but the offense won't be terrible to begin with. It'll be better out the gate than last year's, that's for sure. Mo took a bit to fire up last year.

We don't go to Omaha, W Lafayette or Columbus this year. That's a factor. Here's the schedule. I bolded potential losses, based on the eye test for the preseason and the following for conference play: any road game against a top-50 Kenpom is bolded, any home game against a team with a higher Kenpom ranking is bolded.

The potential preseason losses are Nova and UNC. Would be nice to split those, but the risk of 0-2 is clear. Three days after UNC is Purdue at home. I don't expect to lose that game, but Purdue is good enough and Edwards experienced enough. Put that at 2.5 expected losses. Never expect to win @Wisconsin @Iowa or @Indiana, so now we're at 5.5 expected losses, but the team is good enough to take one of those three. So, back down to 4.5.Penn State is top50 Kenpom but lost their best player by far. That's an expected win. IMO @Maryland goes in that category too.
Never reasonable to expect to sweep MSU, so, 5.5.

Having said all that, there will probably be one awful headscratcher night they won't escape, and one blow-the-barn-doors-off night. I think it more likely there will be two of the latter and only one of the former, but let's be conservative and say one of each.

So, in the end, this rough system suggests 4-6 losses.



Nov. 2: Northwood (Exhibition)
Nov. 6: Norfolk State
Nov. 10: Holy Cross
Nov. 14: at Villanova
Nov. 17: George Washington (neutral site)
Nov. 18: Providence/South Carolina (neutral site)
Nov. 23: Chattanooga
Nov. 28: North Carolina
Dec. 1: Purdue
Dec. 4: at Northwestern
Dec. 8: South Carolina
Dec. 15: Western Michigan
Dec. 22: Air Force
Dec. 30: Binghamton
Jan. 3: Penn State
Jan. 6: Indiana
Jan. 10: at Illinois
Jan. 13: Northwestern
Jan. 19: at Wisconsin
Jan. 22: Minnesota
Jan. 25: at Indiana
Jan. 29: Ohio State
Feb. 1: at Iowa
Feb. 5: at Rutgers
Feb. 9: Wisconsin
Feb. 12: at Penn State
Feb. 16: Maryland
Feb. 21: at Minnesota
Feb. 24: Michigan State
Feb. 28: Nebraska
March 3: at Maryland
March 9: at Michigan State

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'd like you to make your posts more detailed and a little longer. Thanks in advance.

BTW, love your Bball posts.

[*JD*]

No love for Michigan from this CBS Sports Insider:

Jon Rothstein?Verified account @JonRothstein 20h20 hours ago

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Updated Top 25: 1. Kansas 2. Gonzaga 3. UVA 4. Tennessee 5. Kentucky 6. Auburn 7. Nevada 8. Duke 9. Michigan St 10. VT 11. UNC 12. Nova 13. Kansas St 14. Syracuse 15. FSU 16. Mississippi St 17. TCU 18. Oregon 19. WVU 20. UW 21. LSU 22. Clemson 23. ASU 24. Nebraska 25. St. John's

[Hannibal]

I don't know if they overachieved or not. . You're probably right. Hard to factor in making the final game, as they played low seeds most of the way there. Any time Beilein starts with a question at PG, it's going to be an in-season improvement kind of year. But they were damn good team by early February, though with a weak schedule and yet with few marquee-win opportunities, so the seeding projections made them look worse than they really were, perhaps. No question that if Beilein has it hitting on most cylinders by March, the nature of the post-season is going to favor him.

They were a legitimately great team by February, but they overachieved in the sense that they won the B1G tournament and made the NCAA final with guys like MAAR and Duncan Robinson playing big roles. The team had perfect chemistry and they took turns being heroes. It felt like lightning in a bottle. In terms of what you could or should reasonably expect out of a basketball team, it was off the charts on exceeding expectations. I don't know if we will ever see that particular phenomenon again. The midpoint of expectations this year should be -- a tourney seed of around 5? I dunno. What do you think?

[*JD*]

If their top 8 players stay healthy, I expect them to: win at least 22 games before the B1G Tourney, vie for a conference championship (both regular season and B1G tourney), be a 6 or higher seed and play in the Sweet 16. If the young talent gels and Teske is at least a solid rebounder and shot-blocker (like 8 to 10 boards and 2 blocks a game) they could go to another Final Four.

If Wagner had come back, I would say they could be the favorite to win it all. Either them or dooook.

[Cody_Russell]

Full highlights of the preseason Northwood game:

If Teske has a 3 point shot this season... oh boy.
Iggy is indeed impressive.
Poole looks like the man.

First regular season game is tomorrow!

[hack]

I would be disappointed with a 5 seed; content with a 3 or 4. I don't think the March run felt like lightning in a bottle -- I think a Beilein team is going to do very well in single-elimination games. In each of the last two conference tournaments they've gotten better and more comfortable every game, to the extent that the final game in both were really just a formality. Shooters in rythym, coach making adjustments, etc. etc.