U of M MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2018-2019

[The Oracle]

Since we have nearly a week until the next game, I'll once again do a little crystal ball-looking regarding next year. I think Matthews is likely gone, even though he's projecting in the mocks I've seen as a 2nd rounder at best. It would be great if he came back but his upside as a pro-prospect probably is what it is at this point. If he wants to be on a stacked team and enjoy college life a little longer, it's there for him. However, he's had 4 years of that so he might be up for the next challenge.

Unless somebody blows up in the tourney, I see all other players returning. A few will put their name in to get evaluated by the NBA but nobody is projecting that high. Both Poole and Iggy could play their way into being lottery picks next year so I think that will be the way they'll go. Teske could maybe play his way into being a top-40 pick if he returns. I think he's pretty much a lock to do so. Then, you have your transfers. I could see 2 or even 3 guys leaving. It all depends if they are okay with being deep-bench guys or not. Austin Davis is now probably the 5th option at center, although he could be 3rd if going small isn't the plan. The do also have preferred walk-on Jaron Faulds who's 6'10" and maybe on Davis' level. DeJulius looks like he's passing Brooks. Nunez will have more competition next year with Wilson and Bajema coming in. Nunez seems like the most likely of those 3 transfer-candidates to come back but they all might. I suppose there's an outside shot of Johns looking elsewhere but I think he's more likely a candidate to make that Sophomore jump and be a real contributor on game days.

I think the rotation will be

C Teske/Castleton
F Iggy/Johns
W Livers/Wilson/Johns
W Poole/Wilson/Bajema
PG Z/DeJulius

spot minutes to Brooks, if he comes back. Slight chance of Bajema redshirting. If Brooks leaves, they could possibly look for one of those grad-transfers to get a 3rd PG.

IF Iggy or Poole has a crazy tourney and makes the jump, we'll have to adjust but should still have a Sweet 16-ish team. If they both leave, there will have to be some scrambling. Still, with a senior PG and Center, and some other good talent, I think we'd still make the dance.

They're putting the full court press on Lester Quinones, so I'm leaning towards they know someone is serious about a transfer. He'd get major minutes from day 1 at the 2-3.

I firmly believe iggy and Poole are back barring a glen rice type tourney.

[WM Wolverine]

https://kenpom.com/index.php

M currently 5th in Kenpom, Sparty 4th... Winner gets a decent boost though it appears NET is the fancy stat of choice by the committee which is better than RPI. Looks like a 2 seed with little room to move up or down...

So which one seed do we prefer? Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga look like one seeds with one yet to be decided. Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Sparty and M could earn that last one seed.

[hack]

Gonna be interesting to see if Duke has to earn that down the stretch. I would be delighted as the two seed in the region of Gonzaga, Virginia or Tennessee. A Rick Barnes team with not very much tournament experience does not scare me.

[Hannibal]

I don't think that we will win out, but if we do, then I can't believe that we wouldn't be a #1.

[Hannibal]

[The Oracle]

I think Gonzaga very well might be the best team in the country, but with their schedule they should be capped at a 2. They haven't played a real game in 3 months.

I think all the 1s and 2s are very even, dont have a preference nor fear to be in/out of their region.

Win the next 4 games and we'll be a 1 ourselves.

[The Oracle]

No idea who Craig ross is, but don't know why turnover rate for a big with low usage and only touches the ball on pick n pop/rolls and putbacks would be a highlight.

[Hannibal]

Craig Ross has written a couple of Michigan-related sports books and he is a regular on the WTKA morning round table with Brian Cook. He is a big fan of numbers, analytics, etc. I confess I don't know how all of the usage numbers are calculated, so for funsies, I crunched a few numbers on Teske. He has 18.3 field goal attempts for every one turnover and a 2:1 assist ratio. Here are a few other historical bigs stack up on FGA/TO.

Terry Mills 1990 -- 5.4
Juwan Howard 1993 -- 4.4
Mitch McGary 2013 -- 4.8
Chris Webber -- 4.3
Jordan Morgan -- 4.4
Deshaun Sims -- 9.3

I don't know exactly where Teske ranks on blocks but we have the country's #14 2-point field goal defense pct. I'm not madly in love with fancystats but for what it's worth, this site has him as the #6 defensive rated player in the country.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2019-leaders.html

Damn Teske is really good.

[WM Wolverine]

Confirms what I see about Teskes defense, it's really, really good.

[hack]

The point about Teske is that he catches everything you can throw at him, even if he's halfway to perpendicular in the air. Is good.

[hack]

I think Gonzaga very well might be the best team in the country, but with their schedule they should be capped at a 2. They haven't played a real game in 3 months.

That's exactly why I'd love to be in that region.

[*JD*]

No idea who Craig ross is, but don't know why turnover rate for a big with low usage and only touches the ball on pick n pop/rolls and putbacks would be a highlight.

I was thinking the same thing. Teske almost never puts the ball on the floor for more than one dribble.

[The Oracle]

And I don't want anyone to think that I don't absolutely love jon teske. There's just other things I'd highlight besides to rate.

I was amazed that the stat earlier in conference play where he had something like 10/12 steals and blocks with zero(0) fouls. Was amazing.

[WM Wolverine]

These refs are brutal, are we in the penalty already?

[WM Wolverine]

They need Iggy in there, everyone else can't get a good look.