U of M MEN'S BASKETBALL: 2018-2019

[Hannibal]

Was hoping to make it Sunday, but alas. My niece's birthday party

You sure as hell didn't miss anything.

Awful game.

[hack]

Looks like it. Glad this December is done. Time to get back into focus here.

[Hannibal]

[Kstat]

Those were 6 ministers well spent. Not everyday you can look completely lost against mighty Binghamton.

[*JD*]

Highlights of what I shot from today's Michigan Basketball game. They did have some struggles in the first 20 minutes but Poole was lights out from deep, Livers played well, and Iggy picked it up in the 2nd half.:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/mgoblog/sets/72157703704018161?fbclid=IwAR2HEJ26K6ldVdsQunniWh2DFb1_1gBiv1RMzNOAS_fEasTdbSrIyMt_uQI

[WM Wolverine]

Depth is an issue, will be more apparent when they play twice a week and better competition. Livers is the only reserve where there isn't a dramatic drop off from the starters.

[*JD*]

This has other sports too but here are some of my faves of the year:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/mgoblo...oNaBRQs8vcs8P8

[drok]

Really nice set. The wrestling ones were cool along with Matthew's dunk, Robinson's attempted block and the Poole post game interview.

[*JD*]

Thanks!

[hack]

Am thinking I'd better redo my predictions on the eve of conference play. I think my prediction of 4-6 losses is looking good.

[hack]

Here's my original prediction.

OK, quick break from work. IMO we made the final four last year and played ultimately one good offensive game in the tournament. We are conditioned to panic about the offense, but times have changed. In particular because we have more guys now that can manufacture points than ever before in Poole, Matthews and Iggy. Iggy could be one-and-done and his whole game is just getting buckets. I have a feeling he goes wild in Nov/Dec, and has to work a lot harder and has some struggles in January, but by mid-February will be a serious weapon. I'm betting that the defense carries it and the offense smoothes itself out over the course of the season, but the offense won't be terrible to begin with. It'll be better out the gate than last year's, that's for sure. Mo took a bit to fire up last year.

We don't go to Omaha, W Lafayette or Columbus this year. That's a factor. Here's the schedule. I bolded potential losses, based on the eye test for the preseason and the following for conference play: any road game against a top-50 Kenpom is bolded, any home game against a team with a higher Kenpom ranking is bolded.

The potential preseason losses are Nova and UNC. Would be nice to split those, but the risk of 0-2 is clear. Three days after UNC is Purdue at home. I don't expect to lose that game, but Purdue is good enough and Edwards experienced enough. Put that at 2.5 expected losses. Never expect to win @Wisconsin @Iowa or @Indiana, so now we're at 5.5 expected losses, but the team is good enough to take one of those three. So, back down to 4.5.Penn State is top50 Kenpom but lost their best player by far. That's an expected win. IMO @Maryland goes in that category too.
Never reasonable to expect to sweep MSU, so, 5.5.

Having said all that, there will probably be one awful headscratcher night they won't escape, and one blow-the-barn-doors-off night. I think it more likely there will be two of the latter and only one of the former, but let's be conservative and say one of each.

So, in the end, this rough system suggests 4-6 losses.



Nov. 2: Northwood (Exhibition)
Nov. 6: Norfolk State
Nov. 10: Holy Cross
Nov. 14: at Villanova
Nov. 17: George Washington (neutral site)
Nov. 18: Providence/South Carolina (neutral site)
Nov. 23: Chattanooga
Nov. 28: North Carolina
Dec. 1: Purdue
Dec. 4: at Northwestern
Dec. 8: South Carolina
Dec. 15: Western Michigan
Dec. 22: Air Force
Dec. 30: Binghamton
Jan. 3: Penn State
Jan. 6: Indiana
Jan. 10: at Illinois
Jan. 13: Northwestern
Jan. 19: at Wisconsin
Jan. 22: Minnesota
Jan. 25: at Indiana
Jan. 29: Ohio State
Feb. 1: at Iowa
Feb. 5: at Rutgers
Feb. 9: Wisconsin
Feb. 12: at Penn State
Feb. 16: Maryland
Feb. 21: at Minnesota
Feb. 24: Michigan State
Feb. 28: Nebraska
March 3: at Maryland
March 9: at Michigan State

[hack]

I'm minded to narrow it down to 3 or 4 losses. It's hard to identify more than 3 losses on the schedule. I don't doubt the team's ability to go into EL or Madison and win, but it's never reasonable to expect wins there, or in Assembly Hall. I'm thinking they go 1-2 in those games. Add in the once-a-year headscratcher that every team has and that's 3.

All this assumes they wake up after sleepwalking through December. And, of course, no injuries, given that the biggest weakness this year is probably the short rotation.

[Kstat]

[Hannibal]

Not the prettiest win ever, but I'll take it. It will still take a pretty big upset for us to not be 17-0 going into the Trohl Center. I'm glad that we had those huge wins in November. I don't think that they are quite the same team now. If the season started today I'd be thinking of them as a 3 or 4 seed.

[hack]

I haven't seen last night yet -- was busy with my own bricklaying, unfortunately. But this is what defense-first resilience looks like. Like in the tournament last year, in which we were either cold and ground out wins on D, or hot and ran A&M out of the gym in ten minutes.

Agreed -- doesn't look like a 1 seed at the moment. We'll see if they can get themselves back in gear. Livers' health and an 8th man seem particularly important.