Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[iam416]

Not sure that strategy works when they play an elite defense and a really good offense.

You're not going to find out on Saturday, but you will find out in the CFP and I'm very much of the opinion that it will not work. In a very a big way.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Sadly, I'm in agreement.

My hope is that if Harbaugh gets M to the CFP he won't be stubborn. He'll see the strength of the defenses he might face among the contenders and do what most coaches do when there is a mismatch - open up with higher risk strategies. The only problem with that is I don't think M can win a shootout in any of it's upcoming games, including the CFP.

[iam416]

To win in the CFP, they'll need Shea to be outstanding. They aren't going to line up and run the ball at will. They probably will have some issues in pass protection. And they'll have to throw into tighter windows. Shea will have to be fantastic. I mean, I'm talking Peyton Ramsey fantastic!

I'd look at it like this. M has a really good defense that basically stymies anything and everything in the B10. They're sorta like Sparty's really good teams from 2013 to 2015. In 2013, they gave up 24 to a very good offensive team in OSU and 20 to a blah Stanford team. In 2014, Baylor put up 41 on them and they won because of Cook. In 2015, Alabama put up 38 on them and they did not have the fire power to deal with that defense. Ohio State in 2016 was also very good defensively and gave up 31 to Clemson.

I just don't see M making a CFP game a rock fight. I don't see them holding Clemson or Alabama or, hell, Notre Dame to anything less than 24. But Clemson (and, obviously, Notre Dame) are beatable. I'm not sure Alabama is if Tua is healthy. I mean, outside of the truly bizarro game.

In any event, you'll cross that bridge when you get there. First, rail OSU, then rail nFw and by then you'll have yourself believe you can win!

[THE_WIZARD_]

fNW wins the B1G Title Game. Book it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fail ....... rewrite and resubmit.

[THE_WIZARD_]

No

[THE_WIZARD_]

Ok

[THE_WIZARD_]

FNW will win the B1G Title game. Mark it down.

[WM Wolverine]

Sadly agree with talent, Georgia belongs in the discussion too as I think they are very similar to M... I do think M is a better team in quite a few areas than they were vs ND (OL at all five spots, WR have grown, ditto DTs) and the Irish hit a few big plays against the DBs that might not be repeated.

Not sure if Clemson has been tested this season, way prefer to play them than Bama.

[iam416]

I think M could make it hard on Clemson's offense. Lawrence is going to be a superstar, but he's still a frosh. I think Clemson's DL would wreck most of what HARBAUGH!!! wants to do. I could see that game as something like 27-17.

I agree. Alabama is way, way, way more problematic.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Cody_Russell]

Yeah the question is what Lawrence will do when pressured. Playing M, the 2nd best D in college football, would be unique for the true freshman Lawrence

[hack]

I'd have to go back and look at running plays in isolation but overall, M has an average 5.7y on third down (2nd best nationally) and a 56% 3rd down conversion rate (4th nationally).

I recall a shit ton of short yardage plays where Mason carries or one of the RBs carries behind him to get the first. So, yeah, I think Harbaugh thinks running between the tackles is feasible on 3rd and 3. In fact, that's where he wants to get to most of the time.

It's worth pointing out AGAIN that Harbaugh's approach is to get to 3rd and short in every series of every possession, possess and move the chains. He wants to drive the field, pounding as much as possible. I suspect he's working off of a play chart that through analytics gives him a best call given a set of variables. The chart is opponent dependent with regard to the defenses they run and their tendencies within them.

It's boring, it doesn't look sexy, big plays are rare because generally they aren't needed when you can drive the field, burn clock and score - FGs are fine as long as the defense is keeping the opponent from scoring. Most of the time Brown does that. None of this strategy leads to blow-outs. It leads to points per game around 30. When opponents are averaging only 12, its a win without style points. What all this does to fans is that it makes them nervous ..... I get nervous but I'm starting to understand and live with it.

I meant in the playoff. Obviously, against the conference this year, he's fine to run on 3rd-and-medium, and he's fine not getting the conversion and punting much of the time. But the context of this conversation was the playoff, which is different.

[Detroit Dan]

Michigan overachieved this year. OSU barely met expectations, but resurfaced in crunch time. For those not demanding the impossible, this was a very good year for Michigan.

The hard part is, where does M go from here? The M loss to OSU is almost totally on the defense. Don Brown is obviously here to stay as long as he wants. Our best hope is probably that OSU comes back to the pack after an erratic year. If OSU gets stomped again in the playoffs, then they are also damaged goods. If they win and Meyer moves on for health reasons, they are also challenged. Meanwhile, Harbaugh has to get a bowl win and hold steady to possibly take advantage of opportunities that may present themselves.

[Cody_Russell]

M's only hope to win the B10 is for Urban to leave Ohio State. Otherwise, M's hit its ceiling.
Ohio State will continue to dominate recruiting. Goodbye, Zach Harrison.
Harbaugh and the offensive assistants are mediocre if you look at their results vs competent defenses. Its time to embrace the spread. Saban did it.
Defense? It was just random that M couldn't pressure Haskins in this game. It seemed like M had everything there to get the job done. Gary, Winovich, Paye, Uche, etc ... didn't show up.

Until Urban leaves, this 1-14 record vs Ohio State since 2004 will continue to get worse. So bad.