Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[froot loops]

Nebraska would still be in a bind with Frost if they had 200 scholarship players.

[THE_WIZARD_]

That is the dumbest thing I've seen posted since Marty was around...

[Jeff Buchanan]

This guy has been doing these replays since the ND game. He's changed his format from labeling the critical components of the play to narrating them. They have gotten really good ..... in a way, they are better than Seth's Neck Sharpies.

I've studied everyone of these things and I don't think I've posted a link - maybe one - because I thought they really don't add a great deal beyond the offense UFRs. What they have done for me is help to understand the immense improvement of the offense overall in the run game from last season and even from the ND game. I'm aware of the layering that's being added only because there have been suggestions from the coaching staff that and players that is what is going. You can see that the addition of well executed zone read option plays for Patterson has made M's offense much more difficult to defend. The number of times that key Wisconsin defenders dorfed due to the ???? of where the ball was going at the mesh is startling. The Wisconsin players singled out as being fooled are heretofore high level players.

So much for RPOs - the thing we were supposed to be seeing with Patterson at QB. What killed the badgers was the zone read - a Rodriguez specialty. You used to see RR's WVU team at it's best going inside and outside of the zone read. Defenses were utterly confused by his offense when it clicked. I don't think the deception factor of the sone read as M runs it will continue with as much success as it has had. This is mainly because Wisconsin keyed on Higdon getting the ball at the mesh like 81% of the time. Cats out of the bag now. Still, when these plays are as well executed with respect to blocking assignments as they have been - with minor, fixable errors - that may not matter.

I'd like to see a bit more RPO going forward. That's been missing. I would not doubt one bit that the coaches might bring some of this in v. MSU.

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/film-analysis-ep-71-offensive-domination-vs-wisconsin

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Detroit Dan]

In column by Heather Dinich at ESPN, Michigan is listed the most likely one-loss team to get into the College Football Playoff.

Given how poorly Georgia played in its loss to LSU and the Bulldogs' difficult upcoming schedule, it seems -- at least for now -- more likely that the Wolverines will win their league, rather than Georgia winning its. Michigan might wind up having the best loss in the country -- the season opener to Notre Dame.

[Detroit Dan]

After LSU loses to Alabama next week, UM will be #4 (Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan). Of course, that doesn't mean much, although it does provide a boost for program prestige, which is an important factor. (This assumes Ohio State loses tonight to Purdue. If OSU comes back, we're still in the top 5 going into the Penn State game.)

[Hannibal]

Michigan is averaging 6.3 yards per play. Our opponents are averaging a paltry 3.7 yards per play. We are +2 on turnovers on the year. We have 14 TD passes vs 4 INts. Our opponents have 6 TDs and 7 INTs. We have one pick six for every two of our opponents' pass TDs. We have 24 sacks to our opponents' 13. We are outgaining our opponents by 200 ypg. Our opponents have only attempted four field goals. This might be the most statistically dominant Michigan team that we have ever seen. For some strange reason though this does not show up on scoreboards. We were -1 on TOs versus MSU but they were still lucky to only lose by 14 points. We only beat NW by 3 and we only beat Maryland by 21. Is it because of punting? Nope. We also are outpunting our opponents by 9 yards per punt! There is one obvious reason though, and that is penalties. We are averaging 9 penalties per game and our opponents have a whopping 26 first downs by penalty. We have also been royally fucked on a handful of drive killing phantom holding calls like the one on Higdon and the hold on Wilson that took a TD off the board against Maryland. Bad calls by the refs going against us are costing us at least a few points per game on average. The one exception was the SMU game when we got a couple of laughers that went in our favor.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I tend to devalue the penalty yards M gives up - there were a lot of them v. MSU and I had this strange sense that MSU was gooning it up a bit more late (although they did this the whole game according to post game comments by players) and the M players might have thought fuck-it, you want to goon it up, you're going to pay with a kick in the balls in the pile, eye gouging, shoving the life out of you, OOB, into the benches ..... it doesn't matter, take the penalty yards, you're not going to score anyway. And they didn't the game getting sealed with two vicious sacks. Anyway ........I digress.

There are two things hurting M's scoring efficiency entirely unrelated to penalties: (1) M has a nation leading worst third and long, drive ending, conversion percentage. (2) I'm sure there is a stat out there but I suspect that M's ability to score when given a short field (like maybe a first down inside the opponent's 40) is terrible.

The two are related and IMO on Shea Patterson's shoulders. Despite the fact that he makes big plays at key times, his ability to make routine throws on standard downs sucks (I'm also sure there's a stat for that somewhere too). I'm not sure he is making all his reads correctly, commonly referred to as checking down. He's been by-passing (or not seeing) open receivers or receivers about to be open. He holds on to the ball too long and I'm not entirely convinced he's not being coached in a certain way that is making him hesitant for fear of throwing a pic. I've alluded to this elsewhere.

In any event, despite his tremendous contribution to this team improving a shit-ton from last season and the fact that, as Hanni points out, he is QB'ing the most statistically dominant M team that we have seen - maybe ever in the modern era - it is these two things keeping M's offense from being as elite as it needs to be to compete with Alabama, Clemson, GA and probably ND - all four and maybe LSU being likely play-off teams: (1) Shea's inability to convert third and long (the play calling has been fine) or recover with a throw on second down from a first and ten incompletion or stuff, and (2) M's inability to score consistently given a short field.

Am I down on M football, then? Absolutely not but while M is really good and improving in 2018, while Harbaughffense is gads ahead of 2018 because of improvied OL play and Shea Patterson's phenomenal QB play, it's still a step away from being an elite offense capable of winning it all.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Found some numbers and these are before MSU and after Wisconsin:

Passing Down Marginal Efficiency*

-6.7%, # 105

*Marginal Efficiency rates examine a team's efficiency and consistency in staying on schedule and putting yourself in position to move the chains. A QB will have an expected efficiency percentage and can either be above it or below it (a negative number like this one). It takes into account down and distance to go and, indirectly, pass-pro. Michigan, and specifically Shea Patterson, are not good at converting third and long to a first down.

Third and Long Percentage*

32.7%, #2

*You don't want to be first in this category. It means you are seeing these situations more than you would like to see them and in Michigan's case more than all the nation's FBS, CFB teams except one.

Third and Long Success Rate:

23%, #120

21 - 30 yards Success Rate:

32%, #113

11-20 yards Success Rate:

26.3%, #117

These are sobering numbers for M fans warming up to the idea that M may find itself winning the BT East and getting a play-off bid. I think it was talent who said the top SEC teams (and I'd add Clemson of the ACC) look at the BIG and laugh. This is one of the reasons why.

[AlabamAlum]

M is playing good ball. The defense is nasty and the offense is competent. You have the inside track to win the B1G and get to the CFP.

Halcyon days in Ann Arbor.

[WingsFan]

Jims getting his big dick back

[Detroit Dan]

Found some numbers and these are before MSU and after Wisconsin:

Third and Long Percentage*

32.7%, #2

*You don't want to be first in this category. It means you are seeing these situations more than you would like to see them and in Michigan's case more than all the nation's FBS, CFB teams except one.

I believe you have this exactly wrong. Michigan has the second lowest percentage of 3rd downs with long to go for a first down. That's second best in the country.

[Detroit Dan]

M is playing good ball. The defense is nasty and the offense is competent. You have the inside track to win the B1G and get to the CFP.

Halcyon days in Ann Arbor.

Thanks AA. At least we're back in the playoff conversation -- along with teams such as Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas, LSU, Florida, Penn State, and Washington (Alabama and Clemson are unquestioned top dogs).

[Rocky Bleier]

Shea has been inconsistent, but he plays with confidence and grit, and he seems to make plays when he needs really needs to. He is still learning to play the position. At Ole Miss he played out of the shotgun, and I don't think he was required to read many options downfield.

[Tslisher]

Am I down on M football, then? Absolutely not but while M is really good and improving in 2018, while Harbaughffense is gads ahead of 2018 because of improvied OL play and Shea Patterson's phenomenal QB play, it's still a step away from being an elite offense capable of winning it all.

I'd agree with this - Although we are much improved from last year, and much improved from our first game of this year, we aren't yet on the level of the Alabama's, Clemson's etc. (I would have included Ohio State, but it looks like they are regressing). However, right now, I don't see a team in the Big Ten better than us, or have a more complete team. I'd rate of offense a B+ - good, but not elite. Our defense on the other hand can't be anything but an A+ - absolutely elite. I suspect we'd give Alabama or Clemson a game, because our defense would keep us in it for a while, but I think our offense would struggle against them and barring any miracles we'd probably lose by 15-20 points. However, this team does keep improving. Who knows by the end of the season?