Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[Jeff Buchanan]

In another thread, there's been this on-going discussion of UA's SOS arguing subjectively that they have the easiest SOS of all those that are legitimately battling for a CFB play-off spot. Yeah, that's becasue The Nick makes sure that happens.

Objectively UA is ranked #1 and probably will remain so until they presumably meet UGA in the SEC CCG and then the matter will be settled on the field. In the meantime, if you read the Resume, S&P+ article linked to above, you will see why Alabama is correctly ranked #1 and why M's ranking at #15 is probably a good bit off. Whatever.

[AlabamAlum]

Alabama's SOS issues are real, this year, and last, but it is NOT a M.O.

I challenge you to look at Bama's end of year SOS numbers in Saban's other nine years at Bama, they were usually top 5 or 10, but back to this year: if things hold the way they are now, and we win out on the way to the CFPs, we will have beaten three top 10 teams.

[Detroit Dan]

I hate sitting on pins and needles during most Harbaugh coached games that are close. I preferred Nebraska.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...kings-2018-sos

I enjoyed watching the Northwestern game. The comeback was impressive and the team didn't disappoint despite the poor officiating. It was thrilling to see players we have heard about but not seen, such as Josh Uche, step up big.

On the other hand, I was multitasking at the computer and thus not overly concerned by the far too numerous commercials. It's hilarious but must be difficult to endure in person.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On the commercial breaks ...... there are four 2.5 minute breaks per quarter or 10 minutes of commercial breaks for every 15 minutes of clock time. There is also one 30 second spot for the schools to each do their spots. Broadcasters can combine an injury time out with a commercial break ostensibly to cut down on commercials interrupting clock time.

It is what it is and at this point it is strictly contractual. The BT agrees to this type of shit to generate maximum revenue while decreasing the quality of the in-stadium and TV viewing experience by a lot, IMO.

I don't think this is ever going to change ...... spiraling ticket prices and ever increasing commercialization of the entertainment that is college football is only going to get worse. The BIG has a 6 year deal with ESPN and Fox Sports worth a reported $2.64 billion that guys in suits with calculators think is a victory for the conference. The deal runs through the 2023 season.

Obviously, these suits have never watched a football game live on TV or in the stadium of it they did, they were in a suite with plenty of liquor and food available while they chatted nonchalantly paying little mind to the football that we avid viewers love.

[Detroit Dan]

"Broadcasters can combine an injury time out with a commercial break ostensibly to cut down on commercials interrupting clock time."

They can, but don't apparently don't. Another injury? Great -- a chance to run that Discover commercial again!

[Detroit Dan]

One reason I was optimistic about the season for Michigan is the defensive depth. We saw some of that yesterday with the play of Paye and Uche. Watson has been a strong 3rd cornerback all year. We don't lose much when Hawkins comes in to replace Metellus. Mone is a good DT, even if not a starter. We've been without Aubrey Solomon and done well on the defensive line. Jordan Glasgow has done a good job of filling in for Khaleke on several occasions. Ambry Thomas is waiting in the wings. This is the strength of the team.

Secondarily, the offense has much better QB and WR play, even with Tarik Black out again. The offensive line seems much better since the ND fiasco.

So, all things considered, the team is much better than last year, even though our record is worse at a comparable point in the season. We have 4 tough games ahead, but I think we beat Wisconsin and MSU. 9-3 is not bad, and 10-2 possible with a win over Penn State at home. The Buckeyes have top 4 talent, so it will be hard to beat them on the road, but that's not the end of the world. We can solidify as a top 10 team before pushing into the top 5.

[WM Wolverine]

Don't think Sparty is good, problem is I don't think M is much better and Sparty always plays their best game of the season vs M...

Buckeyes, Badgers and lions will be tough. Wisconsin is a tier below the former two.

[iam416]

I think that's about right. I think Sparty and Wisky are toss-ups (Wisky is better, but venue matters). I think Penn State is also a toss-up because it's at M. I reckon Donnie will dedicate Bush to McSorley and that will stop a lot of PSU's offense. KJ Hamler is really good. He's going to be a problem. It doesn't seem likely that M sweeps 3 games that I think are no more than 3 point-type games. And Ohio State is good.

[drok]

Not much to disagree with in the past two posts. My sense is we beat both Wisconsin and Sparty (in a tough, tough win). Lose to PSU and OSU again. Another 3rd place finish.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Assuming M doesn't lose one they shouldn't - and there's some history of that but it is a long time ago sort of history - of Wisky, @MSU, PSU, @osu, fancy stats after week 5 predicts M will lose only to osu, slightly favored v. PSU, all the rest are prohibitive favorites including MSU. The eyeball test validates that MSU isn't putting it all together ..... yet.

For some reason, road trips seem to affect M's offensive play, especially early in the game. So, there is that v. MSU and the Mork preparation thing for M that according to Dantonio himself starts in June. The D always clamps down on squirrely shit an opponent does to open the game. STs are way better this season than last and that's an objective assessment. M presents a credible return threat, field position changing punts, a 50 yard FG kicker and good kick return coverage - also an objective observation.

The thing to me that is problematic is systemic with the offense. In 2017 M's offense ranked 85th in S&P+ Offense. It ranked 103rd in Passing, 14th in Rushing, 49th in Explosiveness and 44th in Success Rate. Those numbers aren't championships level. Obviously the QB debacle greatly affected M's overall rankings for S&P+ Offense. The 2018 rankings come out after week 7. I'd expect M to be ranked much higher than 85th on offense mainly due to what appears to be a much more efficient passing game. I don't think explosiveness or success rate will be much higher than it was in 2017 and to me, that's the systemic issue. Harbaughffense is what it is andis going to stay that way ....... plodding compared to more explosive, and seemingly more competitive, offenses nationally. Can JH deliver championships with his offensive style? Can he beat M's rivals? He's got the tools to do that in his subjectively conservative, objectively run-centric offense but there are chinks mainly in the OL and primarily due to execution. Will Warriner bring this around before Wisky comes to town or M travels to EL? Key question to me regarding M's chances in those 4 BTE deciding games. Fancy stats thinks it will in all the games except osu.

[hack]

Not much to disagree with in the past two posts. My sense is we beat both Wisconsin and Sparty (in a tough, tough win). Lose to PSU and OSU again. Another 3rd place finish.

Much is going to be based on whether Don Brown's defense gets racked early. Off the top of my head, it seems like that's the pattern this year whereas last year that was just the PSU game. It would be according to script if, finally in the year Michgan has a QB that can make plays, the defense suddenly puts it in a serious hole in key games.

[iam416]

fancy stats after week 5 predicts M will lose only to osu, slightly favored v. PSU, all the rest are prohibitive favorites including MSU

Yeah, I don't know how M could be a prohibitive favorite against Wisconsin. I mean, sure -- S&P!!!! But in reality I just don't see Paul Chryst's Wisconsin getting pushed around the field or being intimidated by the venue or being anything other than a tough out. I could see something like 2016 where the feel is that M is in control but the scoreboard is close. The only team to lay it on Paul Chryst's Badgers was Alabama's 2015 National Title team, and even that was Badger'd up for awhile. And that was Chryst's first game. And M ain't, in no way, a national title caliber team.

As an FYI, Chryst and HARBAUGH!!!!! were both hired in 2015....Chryst is currently 37-8.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, "prohibitive" was over-board. Here are the ESPN FEI win probabilities:

Wisky - 72%

MSU - 62%

PSU - 52%

All the other games have win probabilities > 90% except osu (26%)

Chryst's record? BFD. JH is 32-12 ...... his win % is .727, Chryst's is .822. We're talking a minuscule difference here.

But to your point, I agree M is not going to roll Wisconsin. OTH, I think NfW is more explosive than Wisky is, albeit less talented. M ended Fitzgerald's hopes after a time. v. Wisky, who is not explosive at all, there's going to be an excruciating waiting game feel to this game.

Based on M's and Wisconsin's play to date - all five games - we're likely to see two teams plodding along satisfied with this waiting .... low risk play calling combined with a who will make the big mistake first approach.

If you like Brown's D, some don't, I do, I'd predict the pressure to get to Wisky's offense forcing something to M's advantage at some point. The earlier the better. I don't expect Chryst to come out firing on the road. That's hi-risk stuff. JH is more likely to do that at home to get a lead but despite some signs that he appears to try to do it (wins the toss and receives instead of more commonly to defer), results have been poor - 3/4X he's elected to receive, M went 3 and out on the first (2x) or second (1X) series.

[iam416]

Chryst's record? BFD. JH is 32-12 ...... his win % is .727, Chryst's is .822. We're talking a minuscule difference here.

9.5% seems significant to me. I mean, M has a 0.4% advantage over OSU all-time (probably a little less now), and I'm sure that's of significance. But that's an aside.

I think NfW is more explosive than Wisky

Yeah, I know you're all fancystats and shit, but no. nFw is the antithesis of explosive. Wisconsin is plodding, as well, but Taylor is legit big play and they have some skilled WRs.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Sure ...... maybe I should have stuck to the important point in this game. Based on M's and Wisconsin's play to date - all five games - we're likely to see two teams plodding along satisfied with this waiting .... low risk play calling combined with a who will make the big mistake first approach.

I think that will characterize what this game feels like.

My second point is also germane. If you like Brown's D, some don't, I do, I'd predict the pressure to get to Wisky's offense forcing something to M's advantage at some point.

Jonathon Taylor does have big play capability ...... he also fumbles the ball on the regular - 1 fumble each in his first two games - looks to have cleaned that up a bit but still.

Alex Hornibrook had 15 INT in 2017, he's got 2 this season.

I'll go your "but Taylor is legit big play and they have some skilled WRs" and lay down forced fumbles and INTs as difference makers in this game. We'll see.