Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[iam416]

[Detroit Dan]

If RB is a problem, then we've got that covered with the recruits for next year.

Higdon and Evans are good, proven backs. And they're both injured. Tru Wilson looked good in his first significant appearance, and we've got a bunch of other running backs including O'Maury Samuel and Christian Turner.

With regard to safeties, Michigan has a boatload of players who may be able to do what needs to be done. Of course, Brad Hawkins has only played a couple of games and has 2 mistakes, so it's way too early to pass judgment on his prospects at safety. We've also got Jalen Kelly-Powell, Casey Hughes, Ambry Thomas, Myles Sims, Ben St-Juste, Michael Barrett, the Green twins and the other relatively unheralded freshmen, along with Jordan Glasgow. Lots of possibilities there, and it wouldn't hurt to have another top notch recruit or two.

With regard to Khaleke's backup, JKP, Hawkins, and Barrett are other possibilities.

If those are our troublespots, we're in pretty good shape, IMO.

[Jeff Buchanan]

To the scheme issue that Harbaugh is vulnerable to legit criticism ...... I watched some NFL games today only because I'm in Ann Arbor and my son, Sean likes to watch NFL games with his 6 yo son who is into league flag football. He played today. It is a blast to watch these kids play flag football.

Anyway, you can see the 11 and 21 personnel formations that are pass-centric with WCO passing concepts and that predominate NFL wide. It is clearly what Harbugh is trying to run except his offense is run-centric. The difference between watching these NFL teams compared to Harbaughffense is huge. Obviously, NFL OLs can run and pass block well, esp. pass block. There is a pocket. Most of the time, the QB steps up and makes a play or doesn't depending on the coverage and route running skills of his receivers. The speed of the play is starkly different and I don't know if M's coaching staff is taking them step by step in the learning process or whether Harbaughffense is what it is .... slow and plodding by necessity due to talent levels. I think it is the later plus a huge transition between what these guys did in HS compared to what Harbaugh wants and expects them to do in college. It's a big step IMO but I guess he thinks he can pull it off.

I'd like to think he can. But I'm skeptical he can consistently win with that strategy at the top of the food chain.The primary reason is the amount of practice time available to transition the grunts on the OL from the simplicity of blocking schemes that predominate in HS to the complex pro-style blocking schemes required for success in the run game at the college level. Maybe he can get there after years of stock piling quality offensive linemen, getting the depth needed to let them grow into these more complex blocking schemes and develop physically. Right now, what he has, is apparently not great. Improving, I suppose, but not great ..... and then there is recruiting. Is Harbaugh getting the best OL prospects? In three years this has been a problem and one that directly contributes to what we are seeing on the field in 2018 .... an inconsistent OL performance with a few good plays interspersed between a lot of bad ones.

[iam416]

[Jeff Buchanan]

M supposedly has solid interior line play. v. SMU, I slo-mo'ed Ruiz getting knocked over by blitzing LBs (the dreaded A-gap blitz) several times contributing to unblocked defenders stuffing multiple inside, strictly power, nothing fancy, run plays. This is what and where JH's wants to run. To do that, he is going to have to have better interior line play from his C. Ruiz is a 4, marginal 5* C and was listed as the top C prospect in the nation, a true top 100 guy. Yet, he's getting blown off the line by aggressive defenses that Harbaugh fails to punish for doing what they do with the screen game or probably more appropriately, quick slants. True, Gentry had 5 targets and 4 completions and some of these abused what Dykes was running on D. But there needs to be a whole lot more of that and less wasting of downs by running in to 9 and 10 man fronts to prove you can ...... why isn't Patterson checking out of obvious blitzing situations/stacked boxes? Not sure he has the green light to do that and maybe, as Harbaugh terms it, he'll add more "layers" into the offense. It's clearly not there now and while it may be fruitless to compare NFL offenses/QBs to M's, Patterson has the skills to throw short and intermediate range passes off a 2 step drop into the zones vacated by blitzing LBs and/or Ss. It's frustrating to watch when you see NFL offenses/QBs to that with regularity when that space is vacated by aggressively playing NFL defenses.

One other unrelated observation. You may remember the stacked wide receiver formation that Porche scored a big gain on blown M coverage. I watched SF run this exact play v. the Lions. It was perfectly defended when the CB recognized the pattern that the deepest stacked receiver was about to run. He broke off and covered him outside while the S covered the other dude slanting inside perfectly resulting in a coverage sack. First the scheme got Metellus matched on Porche who beat him badly when Brad Hawkins got confused on who had who and while Hill, probably incorrectly took the inside receiver. That should not have happened. Hawkinsshould have had inside coverage and Hill outside. Anyway it was instructive regarding how hard it is to teach these skills to 18-20 year olds (Hawkins is a Sophmore) just finding their way into high level football.

[hack]

How hard it is for this coaching staff, at least.

I agree that Evans is a change of pace. I wonder why he's not been fully weaponized in space. He has such good balance with the ball in his hands. Amazing feet. I would just assume he can't catch, but after watching them squander Peppers -- not exactly the same kind of athlete in space, but Evans has taken a wildcat snaps too, IIRC -- you wonder.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah, the play calling vis-a-vis the predictable use of Ambry Thomas on offense (ala. the Pepcat though Thomas does a jet sweep ala. McDoom) and the apparent reluctance to call a bunch of short and intermediate passes into the areas vacated by blitzing LBs and/or Ss is getting some ink - a lot of it. That tells me that observers are consistently seeing the same thing. I don't think they are all wrong.

As hard as I try to come up with a reason for this to absolve the play-calling, I can't. Like I mentioned in another post, it might be unfair to compare M's offense to NFL offenses, but it's easy to do because that is the exact kind of offense JH is building and trying to run now. But there is plenty missing from Harbaughffense compared to the NFL style offense he wants to run. He'd like to be run-centric but opposing DC's know how to mitigate the effectiveness of that by bringing defenders up and aggressively deploying them. They don't fear doing that because it appears Harbuagh isn't punishing that approach, using a short passing and screen game, like NFL offenses would for this.

I don't know if this is Harbaugh's famous stubbornness in an effort to have his OL get the required blocking right (proving he can do this) or intentional limits to the play-book to keep things simple or an observed inability in practice to safely and efficiently run pass plays intended to get LBs and Ss to back off. I don't think the deep ball 3-4X a game does that even though it appears this is JH's tactic. So, who knows but it's aggravating to see an offense seemingly capable of exploiting defenses who stack the box and run blitz a lot not take advantage of that.

[iam416]

I didn't realize they were using Ambry Thomas in the Pepcat role. That's such a gimmick no matter who does it. And by gimmick I mean it's a one-trick pony/thin role. If you're you going to use those players then use them robustly. Speed and quickness works between the tackles, too. It works on LBs in coverage.

I think maybe Buchanan mentioned it (or I'm imagining it), but I could see Evans and Higdon as a Samuel and Weber pairing from 2016. Evans is definitely a guy defenses would have to account for if he were deployed more aggressively. He's not really a guy you have to change plans for if he's the RB. I haven't a clue if he can catch or not. But, it's moot because that's not really an option for HARBAUGH!!!

I'm a little surprised about Ruiz. I mean, he's still just a true sophomore. Isaiah Prince was getting absolutely wrecked by Penn State and then Taco as a true sophomore in 2016. Ruiz isn't the problem on the OL -- but it does go to something I said -- the interior, while better than the OTs -- strikes me as more around the serviceable level (especially on Pass Pro). That's a problem. I just have a really hard time imagining what that OL does against Ohio State or, good god, Clemson.

[hack]

If you're you going to use those players then use them robustly.

Yes. Two years ago, you saw that stuff -- Pepcat for Peppers, jetsweeps for McDoom -- and assumed they'd be building off that. But some of these offensive specialists, who might not have command of the full playbook, just go do one thing until defenses recognize it and know how to stop it. And then Harbaugh keeps sending them out there to do that one thing.

[Hannibal]

Yup. Ambry Thomas is going to be that guy who participates in some big plays against Maryland and Rutgers but then gets completely shut down by MSU. Through a few games it's obvious that they are not going to use him like a conventional receiver. I don't know why they don't just move him over to offense permanently since CB is deep and talented already and the skill positions are extremely thin. That way, they could maybe have him run a variety of routes. Until then Thomas is either a jet sweep guy or a jet sweep decoy and likely nothing else.

And since we don't seem to have a problem with putting our mediocre safeties matched up against our opponents' best receivers we don't need the CB depth anyways. I could gladly go the rest of my life without seeing Josh Metellus try to cover a guy who is going to end up all conference.

[Jeff Buchanan]

To be clear, Ambry has only been deployed on the jet sweep. He's never taken a direct snap like peppers did and that's all peppers did. Observers always thought there'd be counters to the pep cat thing. Never happened. Thomas will likely get the same treatment. That kind of thing really convicts Harbaugh. It does not appear after 3+ seasons he is at all innovative. Pretty boring actually but that's him. From what we've seen so far, he appears to think like an NFL coach .....mismatches dont happen (of course they do) and you cant run the plays that a defense doesn't expect because those defenses are too good (usually full of exploitable weaknesses). Its disappointing in light of the fact that hes got a good if not elite QB that makes plays.

[hack]

I agree that either get Thomas out there in coverage instead of a safety, or get him over on offense and learning to do more. He's a talent and needs to be on the field. IMO, on offense. Is a potential playmaker. We need some athleticism out there beyond DPJ.

[Hannibal]

I still don't understand how we play almost nothing but man coverage and yet we will constantly end up with safeties covering our opponents' best receivers. Can we really not stick Long or Hill on a guy when he's their only threat?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I found this interesting if not at all believable............Michael Onwenu says Michigan hasn't used half of the play-book yet:




JH opened the 2017 season with a healthy Wilton Speight at QB. In the first three contests v. UF, Cincy and USAF, the offense didn't look particularity good or innovative or any of that; it was the classic JH run-centric thing with an occasional deep ball - routinely missed by a combo of Wilton Speight and young receivers - or so we were told. We are seeing the same thing now excpet the receivers are better and SHea Patterson is the 5* everyone thought he would be. For the he rest of the 2017 season JH deployed QBs that didn't allow him to do much at all and IMO, he didn't try until osu and then lost that game.

I find this claim by Onwenu to be very dubious. I made the point earlier. JH is who he is. He thinks he can win with a low risk run-centric offense that is neither innovative or up-tempo. Maybe he can but in the first three games, I don't think his players have got that down yet. They got stuffed by ND and for the most part v. SMU. The run game was very average in both those contests and not off-set by an over-balance to the passing game. It was nice and efficient but it continued to play second fiddle to bashing RBs into 10 man fronts that looked more like, I can do this if I want to. Well, I'm not sure he has proven yet, he can.

https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/2018/9/17/17870946/ol-michael-onwenu-says-michigan-hasnt-used-half-of-playbook-what-to-expect

[Detroit Dan]

If one were to look at the game log ( comments on this site ), one would see Detroit Dan's comments early in the game:

M offense needs some adjustment. 1 lucky first down, and a lot of plays for little or nothing

Nothing working so far for offense. I think it's mostly rock, paper, scissors. They've anticipated our play calls fairly well

Shortly thereafter, Michigan went on to score on 6 straight possessions (5 TDs and 1 field goal), up to the end of the game. You cannot do better than that. So all of you criticizing the offensive coaching are full of shit.