Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[iam416]

I agree that QB is far less an issue than OL, but it's also a question of expectations. HARBAUGH!!!! is the QB Whisperer. And, yet, in Year 4 he's still not starting a kid he recruited and developed.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Buchanan:

I disagree on the Rudock thing -- I mean, he wasn't guaranteed a job at Iowa, but his career trajectory didn't hit a huge and sudden upslope at M. Whatever. In any event, it's Year 4 and JH had to get a transfer to come play QB.

Yes, I miss OP. Oh, what I wouldn't give to hear his "Kiddie Table" schtick these days!

On balance, I can't make a case that Harbaugh's QB stable has been elite, from a recruiting and development standpoint, like we might have expected it to be by year 4. It's been pretty hard to judge how good this stable has been in the passing game because the shit-stain that OL recruiting and development appears to be has affected every aspect of the passing game in Harbughffense. That's why Harbugh went hard on Patterson to get him to M.

Harbaughffense needs the deep ball to get defenses to play less Cover 1 and more Zone but the reality that your QB is going to get killed in the time that it takes those plays to develop due to poor tackle play has to be a powerful negative factor on the offensive efficiency of JH's scheme. Some would argue, change the scheme. Seth's neck sharpies at mgo seem to make it pretty clear the coaches did.

Based on that, I think Warriner is going to be the coach that can get OL play improved unlike the previous OL coaches who couldn't. I also think that JH will continue to tweak Harbaughffense to accommodate whatever OL weaknesses persist.

ND had an excellent game plan on O and on D. There was a definite synergistic effect on the D after the O scored two quick TDs to go up by 14. It allowed them to risk playing aggressive cover 1 to pressure Patterson through the first half and when called for in the second. IMO, those two early scores, then the addition of the third screwed up M's game plan. I also think that the brain trust stayed with that game plan too long. Go air-raid. M had nothing to lose at that point. Instead they plodded until it was way too late.

Anyway, I think the fundamental problem of OL play will resolve itself by the time M plays Wisky and I shouldn't count Nebraska out on D or O as everybody saw what ND did v. M and will attempt to replicate it. We have to hope that Patterson's QB play will improve with improved OL play and we can then credit Harbaugh for developing him. We'll know what we need to know about that with WMU and SMU coming to town; if M struggles on O against either of those two teams, a repeat 8-5 or worse is much more likely that 10-2 and Patterson is going to continue to look pretty much like he looked in his two seasons in the SEC v. top defenses there.

[hack]

I agree that QB is far less an issue than OL, but it's also a question of expectations. HARBAUGH!!!! is the QB Whisperer. And, yet, in Year 4 he's still not starting a kid he recruited and developed.

This is a cold hard fact. And a disturbing one. Makes no difference whether QB play this year is better relative to tackle play. Is still a fact.

[UMStan White]

"Basically we don't know shit about the game or what the coaches know about how the team actually performed in a game."

True observation. But that hasn't stopped you from posting entire novels as to what you think is right and what you think is wrong.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In the first three games of the 2017 season, the best quarterback in the NFL, Tom Brady, got sacked on 8.3 percent of his passes compared to 4.2 lifetime. Through those three games, Brady was sacked 10 times and hit 20 more. The Patriot's OL sucked; Brady looked bad and Patriot fans started to worry about their then 40yo QB. OL play improved behind good coaching and the Pats went to the Super Bowl.

The point is that you can't fairly evaluate QB play, or the coaches ability to develop it, when the OL play sucks.

[UMStan White]

'The point is that you can't fairly evaluate QB play, or the coaches ability to develop it, when the OL play sucks."

Thank you Captain Obvious!

[Jeff Buchanan]

You're right, Stan. It's much harder to write about a problem and then offer solutions than it is to say, Michigan football sucks without offering any reasons why..... and that M lost to ND is, IMO not sufficient. Football is a complicated game, you know this. You practice law. You can't go to court without substantive evidence that the guy you are representing is innocent. But here it's Ok to do just that.

On the statement that M fans don't know shit about football ........ writers offering observations about M football games should be careful to identify that they are amateurs and don't have the full picture that the coaching staff does. I think I do that.

In all of the complaints I've seen here and to some extent on the web in general, I don't think there's been enough posts containing them that acknowledges that limitation. These complaints, the hot takes, become a statement of fact without any qualifiers or generally any support for a negative observation.

I linked to, what I think, was the best post after the ND loss in a thread asking, You're the Coach, Now Fix the Problems. The post was made by Space Cyote at mgoboard. It started out by saying this:

My personal take for what I would do differently, or at least try (without insight into what has been repped and practiced and done well/poorly during camp, etc.)

The poster then goes on to list the problem and provide a solution. It's a long post.

So, STFU. Maybe you can go to trial today and in your opening statement announce that my client is innocent, the defense rests and you can then sit your ass down. That should work.

[UMStan White]

Jeff ,I love you man! My postings are nothing more than the rants of a fan who lived through the "glory days" of UM football and is now distressed that I probably die before seeing a return to that glory. (and i envy you for having the time to write such insightful analysis while I work toward retirement.)

[AlabamAlum]

You are all in various stages of Kubler-Ross: Denial, anger, grief, acceptance, and with my one good real-life M friend, Bargaining (Lord, just let us beat MSU and we will be okay).

It's hard as fans. I have lived it. You have no control over anything so you end up arguing with each other. Just know that I am keeping you in my thoughts and prayers.

[hack]

Beilein and basketball. That's what keeps me sane. October 15 is right around the corner.

[Detroit Dan]

Rough start to the year, but it was a worthy opponent. It would be nice to be in OSU or MSU shoes and be 1-0, but on the other hand it's good to taste defeat and realize that improvement is needed. From the coaching staff to the offensive line, weak points have been exposed and the need for corrective measures obvious.

It was not a bad game. Notre Dame deserved the victory as they came out of the gate and hit some big plays, then did enough to preserve the lead and victory. Michigan got some bad breaks and has some obvious weaknesses, but hung in and made an interesting game of it.

Bring on the B1G!

[hack]

hip-hip hurray

[Jeff Buchanan]

I can't remember if I posted this guys work on the passing game v. ND but it is quite good stuff if you have any interest in understanding why plays don't work.

This is a breakdown of 6 failed run plays. The takeaways:

NDs front 7 v. M's run game played lights out. I don't know if they simply played beyond their level or if they are really good. We'll see as the season unfolds.

Related to the above, one of three things is going on: (1) The ND LBs and Ss reactions to the 6 plays broken down here is exceptional, (2) M's offense is tipping their hand, (3) either the play design or Patterson's play fakes (when a PA is run) or his read option (not RPO) isn't being executed well enough to hold the LBs or advantage himself or the RB against the play side DE. Doug Dillon, who was at the game, thought Patterson was tipping run/pass with hand movements before the snap. I looked live on TV and didn't see it.

Football is hard.

There are blocking whiffs among all the OL and by blocking TEs and receivers. Is the ND front 7 really good or is M's blocking the the dumpster fire it was in 2017? My take after one game against a good opponent is that at least the OL, blocking TEs and receivers look like they know what they are supposed to be doing play to play, they just aren't doing it well enough. I'd call that progress. We shouldn't care that ND might be good or not; they were good in their opener but M is going to face at least three defenses (MSU, Wisky and PSU) that are going to be as good as ND and one (osu) that is going to be better. M has a couple of games to sort this out before facing Wisconsin at home. Lets hope Warriner can work some magic. Anyway, it's something fans should be watching - maybe not live because it's really hard to do that - but paying attention to available video post game before running to the Internet to post hot-takes.

https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/film-analysis-ep-12-run-offense-struggles-vs-nd

[WM Wolverine]

NDs front seven looked really good to me, imo better than Sparty/PSU which is a step below Wisconsin/ND... NDs linebackers were terrific in coverage, which is why we saw a ton of lessl than 5 yd passes.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Post occurred about 90 minutes ago siting a snap chat post from a friend of Aubry Solomon. Said he had knee surgery today. If True, that explains a lot.