Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[Hannibal]

The SuperFan weighs in on the season...

[Hannibal]

It still boggles my mind that we told Erik Swenson to fuck off. That's like being a homeless bum and refusing a free meal because the vegetables aren't organic.

[iam416]

M is 9-8 in their last 17 and has, I think, lost 16 straight road games against ranked teams. Is that right? Jesus.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You are correct if my memory serves me. SuperFan is spot on describing the football emotions of probably 90% of the M fan base over 50. It is that group that has some sense of M football before 2006 - IMO, the year the decline started although it could have been the 2005 Rose Bowl loss to Texas, a 38/37 soul crushing defeat. I think Lloyd Carr lost his fire after that loss and its been 12 years down hill since then. My view is that a lot of the blame can be laid on the two ADs, Bill Martin and Dave Brandon, that contributed to the coaching debacle that started with the hiring of Rich Rodriguez - a poor fit if there ever was one. Lloyd, as everyone now knows, vehemently opposed RR's hiring and it appears that he and his followers worked to undermine him and RR did the rest for himself. Then there was Brandon and everyone knows that story.

So, Jim Hackett arrives and lures Harbaugh back home. Huge unmet expectations for him that continue to this day. There are legitimate excuses but, if the buck stops with JH, and I think it does, he's made some bad calls on his watch.

I also think CFB has changed so dramatically over the last decade that instead of a large group of blue-bloods there is only a handful of them left. That's because the teams that couldn't compete for various reasons - the have nots - have found ways, politically and practically, to compete with the haves, taking down plenty of blue-bloods and their coaches in the process. Rather chaotic scene and the status quo of the 80s has been disrupted and given way to the current place we find ourselves ....... and that includes M, Texas, USC, UCLA, Oklahoma and Nebraska, Penn State to a lesser extent but still recovering, among others, clamoring for national recognition and prominence.

That does not change SuperFan's viewpoint though. It doesn't change the shitty course M football has been on since 2005/6 so, yeah, let's start the the climb back to respectability after a 13 year hiatus where M wasn't feared at all when it came to town for a road game and win versus ND.

[WingsFan]

Wilton Speight named starting QB by Chip Kelly UCLA

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, I like or liked fancy stats and the term like appealed to me in picking winners the first 4 rounds of AA's pick-em contest last season until I was ruthlessly reminded that shit doesn't work often enough to make it better that a coin flip.

So, new season, new set of fancy stats (albeit pre-season which are shaky at best) is out there and collated into something readable by Ecky Pting. He does this every season and will update the stats after each game this season as before. Link below if you care to spend and an hour or two going through them to understand, in Hack's terms, the nuances of the author's report. Otherwise, here's his conclusion. Mine to follow:



BTW, the emboldened is a great line. Great and everyone here should know where it came from and when it was spoken. Here's my Cliff Notes take:

M finishes the regular season at 9-3 in a bunch behind osu with PSU and MSU. Worst case M is, once again, 4th in the BTE. This will not be good for JH's health.

osu, because #1 it is good and #2 has the easiest path to glory of all the BE teams, will win that division. It's not even close according to fancy stats. The author then groups the rest of the BE teams into three categories:

............. the Contenders (Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan), the Bubble (Indiana) and the Bottom Feeders (Rutgers and Maryland). The Contenders are those teams that by one rating or the other, are shown to be within 2 total expected wins of the top rated team. The Bubble consists of those teams within 2 total expected wins of being bowl-eligible (or not). The Bottom Feeders are the teams with few prospects of gridiron glory or post-season hijinks.

I have three takeaways from the Pting's fancy stats piece:

#1: M needs to beat ND to get off the schneid (and this is a perfect term for M's drought of winning on the road, BT championships and beating it's ...... never mind. It sets the tone for the season. Sure, goals will still probably be in tact but, damn, this is a big one for Jimmy Ball Game and if the players manufacture a road win against a ranked opponent since, I don't know, baby Jesus showed up, it is going to infuse the team, players and coaches, with a lot of confidence. So, BEAT THE IRISH!

#2: M should be competitive per fancy stats but will lose, v. MSU on the road. That means that getting a win v Sparty is probably the most important conference game in 2018. So, FGS start manufacturing wins in games you are supposed to lose. That would be really nice and a pleasant departure from the rut M football has been in for more than a decade. Think about that. No, don't.

#3: If M beats both Wisky and PSU at home like it should per fancy stats (FGS, don't lose games you are supposed to win, boys!!!), that sets up a game v. osu in the shoe for all the marbles ...... exactly like it should be (caveat, and I think this will happen, MSU has to lose two conference games).

One step at a time. Don't fuck it up in SB people.

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/b1g-expe...018-pre-season

[drok]

'Twas the night before football, when all through the Big House,
not a fan was stirring, not even a mouse.
The cleats were hung by the lockers with care
In the hopes that a Big Ten Championship soon would be there.
The players were nestled all snug in their dorms
While visions of National Championships were possible should the team play to form.
And mamma in her jersey and I in my Nike Jumpman cap,
Had settled our brains for a long off season nap.
When out on the field there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from my tailgate RV to see what was the matter.
Away past the BBQ I flew like a bullet pass,
Kicked through the tall boy empties and let out some gas.
The moon on the breast of the newly painted field,
Gave the lustre of gameday after victory had been sealed.
When what to my wondering eyes did approach,
But a pair of tan khakis and one heck of a coach.
He was a raging sum-bitch, so lively and raw,
I knew in a moment he must be Harbaugh.
More rapid than eagles his players they came,
And he whistled, and shouted and called them by name:
"Now Uche, now Hudson, now Winovich, and Gary.
On Patterson, on Higdon, on Evans and Gentry.
To the Big House midfield, to the north end goal line.
Now hit them hard, hit them hard, all of the time."
So off to the end zone, the players they flew,
With a bag full of footballs and coach Harbaugh too.
And then in a twinkling I heard in the stands,
The cheering of one hundred and twelve thousand fans.
As I fixed my eyes upon the glistening gridiron,
Down the tunnel Harbaugh blared like a ringing siren.
He was dressed in maize and blue, from his head to his toes.
And his clothes were all branded with Nike logos.
A bundle of footballs he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a QB avoiding the sack.
His drole little mouth was ready to explode,
With profanities so vulgar, his mother would scold.
The stump of a whistle he held tight in his teeth,
And the smell of success encircled his head like a wreath.
His jaw was fixed, he was a coach full of fire,
And I cheered when I saw him, the kids he would inspire.
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head
Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread;
He spoke not a word and went straight to work,
And got his team in order then turned with a jerk.
And placing a new football into his hand
and giving a nod, to the sidelines he ran.
He sprang to his headset, to his team gave a whistle,
And away his kickoff team flew like the down of a thistle.
But I heard him exclaim as the sun set in the west:
"Hail! Hail! To Michigan, the leaders and the best!"

[UMStan White]

Great!!

[Rocky Bleier]

"My view is that a lot of the blame can be laid on the two ADs, Bill Martin and Dave Brandon, that contributed to the coaching debacle that started with the hiring of Rich Rodriguez - a poor fit if there ever was one. Lloyd, as everyone now knows, vehemently opposed RR's hiring and it appears that he and his followers worked to undermine him and RR did the rest for himself."



If you read the transcripts, you know that Rich Rodriguez was revealed as a huge pervert in Arizona by his secretary. Did anyone ever hear any whispers to that effect while he was in AA?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I didn't but he has certainly gone to the mattresses as toxic as he has become. Haven't seen or heard a peep from him or about him in a good while. Not sure he will ever emerge as a capable HC that a team is willing to take a chance on.

[Jeff Buchanan]

New format for Inside Michigan Football. Not bad. There's a couple of film studies in this video that isolates Brown's pressure approach and the price to be paid when you throw paper and get scissors. There's also a Jansen discussion about defending a guy like Winbush on 3rd down. I think he hints Brown might want to take a different approach with QBs like this. The good thing is, M's D doesn't face a QB like that in an offense like ND runs the rest of the way. SMU maybe but the talent level is way different.

There's also a clip of JBB getting beat by what Jansen calls defensive line movement (shifts) and another of a classic A-gap blitz that doesn't get picked up leaving Patterson with a guy in his face in a 3 count.

https://mgoblue.com/watch/?Archive=13435&type=Archive

[Dr. Strangelove]

Wait a minute...it's my understanding that Llllllloyd vehemently opposed hiring Les Miles, which is how you wound up with Rich Rod.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, that too because Les was a known Lethario and participated in various dalliances with a number of women on M's staff and/or wives of coaches on M's staff during his tenure at M as an Assistant for Bo.

LC actually wanted Jim Harbaugh in 2007 not getting behind likely candidates (besides Miles) Brian Kelly (at Cincy at the time), and Mike Trgovac (Panther's DC). Bill Martin is rumored to have made inquiries about Jim but the timing was wrong. Harbaugh was headed to Stanford after his successful stint at SDSU. His wife loved the West Coast and Palo Alto was a dream location for her and the kids so, he apparently wasn't interested.

[WingsFan]

At this point Harbaugh reminds me of Charlie Weis, you know the guy who was not going to get out schemed. The guy they and we all thought would bring ND back to the glory days.


Charlie Weis high water mark was the 'Bush Push' when he almost beat hated rival Southern Cal.

Jim Harbaugh's high-water mark so far (and maybe forever) is 'JT Was Short.'

[hack]

Harbaugh's high-water mark is the Super Bowl. And he beat USC. At this point he's out of excuses and we may very well be looking at a reality where he's been elite at every coaching stop until this one. Maybe the college game's changes in the four years he was gone were just too much for him. Maybe this, maybe that. Dunno. But reality's reality and it's Year 4 and there has to be huge-steps improvements in the OL and QB play this year or else there's just not much reason to expect the guy we thought we were getting.