Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[hack]

The guy started for a month behind a terrible offensive line and QBd a dysfunctional offense led by coaches who weren't on the same page. I'm not suggesting he has a bright future, and it seems unlikely he'll ever start for Michigan, but writing him off based on what we've seen seems premature.

[iam416]

Good news. I got M as my B10 East team in the 4th round! Last time I had M was in 2016 when they were a unstoppable juggernaut of awesomeness! Increase optimism accordingly!

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'll go with Peters as a decent back-up but not as a Div 1 starter. Two things: He's probably #2 behind Patterson but that's not even a sure thing as McCaffrey and Milton sound pretty good. I think he gets passed by one of those two for 2019 starter at QB if Patterson leaves for the NFL at the tend of this season. That's because I think Harbaugh is moving the offense toward guys with at least quick feet who can throw outside of a stable pocket and on the move. He could transfer to another Div 1 school like Speight did to UCLA but not a lot of top programs are looking for guys whose skill set is similar to Peter's.

[WM Wolverine]

Peters won't have any trouble finding a landing spot, tons of P5 programs need QBs even if it's just a guy whose going to be a backup... Agree with hack that it's not fair to judge him based on '17...

I also agree with JB that McCaffrey (I thought he was a near 5 star talent) is likely to pass him, Milton is extremely raw. Don't expect Milton to play till year 3...

[Detroit Dan]

Well, I'd agree with that but there were no guarantees from the coaches. Shea had to win the job and clearly he did.

In comes Shea Patterson. I think he'll be much better than Peters would have been. Much better but I also think he's going to press and because of that, he'll make mistakes. You can't watch film of him and not conclude that. Nonetheless, I'm darn glad he transferred and is starting fro M v. ND. By the time BT play rolls around, he just could have M's offense rolling.

I haven't watched much film of Patterson. I'd rather he "press" and have a few interceptions, than to not move the ball. Harbaugh and Hamilton know what they are doing and will go for the right mix of getting the ball out without risking interceptions.

[Detroit Dan]

Credit to Harbaugh for getting Patterson while still developing Peters, McCaffrey, and Milton for future. The QB situation last year wasn't good and drastic measures were called for.

I agree that it's unreasonable to make any definitive statements on Peters at this point. Tom Brady wasn't all that great as a redshirt junior.

[Detroit Dan]

At any rate, as a fan, it will be interesting to see how Patterson does. Something new for the new season. I'm also excited about redshirt freshman James Hudson possibly starting at tackle. And it could be fun to see a full season of Tarik Black, and possible sophomore jump by Donovan Peoples-Jones. The tight end corps also looks special, as do running backs 1a and 1b. Lots of potential based upon good recruiting classes a couple of years ago, solid defensive continuity, and major overhaul of offense.

[Jeff Buchanan]

SEASON PREDICTIONS:

M @ ND: good stuff has already been written about this game in the Game Thread. Not much to add as we approach game week. If Patterson is as good as his billing and Brown has a game plan that makes Wimbush miserable, M wins looking like they did soundly beating UF in 2017's opener for both teams. Note that UF was expected to be good but was, in fact, not very good at all. I think ND in it's opener at home will be a bit better than UF was in 2017 but M still wins and beats the spread.

WMU @ M: M is either going to on a high after beating ND or pissed off from losing. Either way, M wins this walking away. WMU is not going to win the MAC this season. New QB, established RB, a defense that is second tier at best and should be porous against most P5 teams. M by 30+.

SMU @ M: The AAC conference changes head coaches as often as women change clothes. Sonny Dykes is SMU's new HC. He is a Mike Leach devotee and his offense will feature the air raid approach Leach made famous. The drawback for Dykes is while he's got a 3rd year QB to run a new offense, he doesn't have the kind of receivers he needs to make air raid work. This could be a possible INT fest padding the numbers for an impressive M back end. Should be a fun game to watch though. I'll be there. SMU with a bad defense; M by 30+

NEB @ M. BT play opens v. Scott Frost's Nebraska. We can assume Frost will feature an offense much like UCF's and it appears (or not) that he has a QB in Martinez to run his fast paced offense. Bob Diaco, DC under Reily, was awful and Frost replaced him with the DC that was with him at UCF. Both units are going to be in the transition mode in 2018. Locals aren't predicting great things for Neb in 2018 but think Neb can challenge for the West crown in a year or two. M's D under Brown has mostly handled spready, up-tempo offenses although there have been times where players looked confused facing such things. Hoping that's not the case in 2018 and that Martinez doesn't outplay Patterson. There's going to be some tight assholes (or front holes as the case may be) but M takes control in the third quarter. M by 10+ but it will look like a not very good game.

M @ NfW: Harbaugh takes his team on the road to Evanston for the second time 5 games. The nice thing about the Kitty's football stadium, Ryan Filed, is that huge numbers of M fans from the Chicago area vastly outnumber very nice NW student and alumni fans. These are fun games to be at until it turns out that Pat Fitzgerals, regardless of talent level, has his team ready to play football. While NW won 10 games in 2017, including it's bowl game against UK, they lost all 3 of their games to good teams including M that really wasn't that good. QB Thorson is still rehabing and Fitzgerald has been circumspect about his return for NW's opener Thursday, 8/30 v. Purdue. Observers a lot more knowledgeable than I am about NW football don't think much of this years chances for the Kitty's to get to 10 wins again. M goes into Evanston and after a slow start v. a Fitzgerald famously pumped up team, asserts itself to win by something like 20.

Maryland @ M: A badly soiled and probably a bit dejected football team minus DJ Durkin comes to AA to face likely 5-0 Michigan. Latest news is that the Terrapins are hemorrhaging recruits as chaos is likely to follow the anticipated firing of Durkin. This one is going to be a blowout and I do not think Harbaugh will call off the wolves. I have no idea how bad this one will get. It really depends on whether or not Maryland comes to play or just to lie down and take it in the ass.

WISKY @ M: This game could be a nationally televised ABC game featuring two unbeaten and top 10 teams. Wisconsin as it is known to like to do is not going to run over the M defense and Hornibrook is going to have to throw the ball to stay in it. That should be no problem as he is among the top, if not the top QB, in the BT. This game comes down to keeping the Badgers one dimensional then harassing Hornibrook into shitty throws. Meanwhile, M has to play error free ball on offense to win. I think Harbugh gets his first signature win against a top 10 opponent here but it's not going to be an easy win by any stretch of the imagination. M by 3.

M @ MSU: M goes back to EL to face Mark Dantonio and dependable if not spectacular Brian Lewerke. LJ Scott is still there and presents a credible big play threat behind Dantonio's excellent in game play calling. This one could go either way because it always can and the likelihood of an M loss has increased dramatically since Dantonio took over the Spartans. MSU always plays very solid defense and if Patterson succumbs to it while M's running game gets off the rails, I can see MSU winning this one in a low scoring game that could go to OT bringing back memories of Spartan Bob. MSU knocks off M in EL bouncing the Wolverines out of the top 10.

PSU @ M: Yes, Franklin is over-rated and so is McSorely minus Moorehead and his top receivers from 2017. M is pissed about losing to Sparty and spanks PSU big time in a revenge game for last season's blow-out loss to the Nits in HV. M 42 - 17 or something like that. PSU comes in undefeated and at #5 or 6. M jumps back into the top 10.

M @ Rutgers: Never mind. M will leave New Brunswick, a quaint NJ town, with an 8-1 record.

IU @ M: Last season when M went to Bloomington Kevin Wilson was already at osu and Tom Allen turned IU's defense into something credible. It had not been that way in decades. Allen also slowed down IU's fast paced offense under Wilson and also slowed IU down in the process. However, John O'Korn was John O'Korn and Don Brown had a brain fart in this game. O'Korn was 10/20 and 58 yards. He had no INTs but he was ineffective. Higdon ran for 200 yards and M prevailed in OT but this wasn't a good win. By this time last season, you had a bad taste in your mouth about M football. This season Indiana brings back Peyton Ramsey who threw relentlessly to Simi Cobb. Cobb is gone to the NFL but Ramsey brings QB experience and the returning receivers are not chopped liver. M might overlook the Hosiers with The Game looming the following week. A trap game? Maybe but baring a bunch of key injuries M just has too much talent to give this one away. M wins 34 - 28 in a game that wasn't really that close.

M @ osu: If talent's prediction is correct and osu is 10-1 facing a 10-1 M team in the shoe, a battle royal will ensue. I actually do think M wins this one to go 11-1 and wins the East outright as M will have beaten PSU and MSU will have lost at least one more game. M 10-1, 8-1. M gets to the CCG and beats Wisconsin advancing to the CFB Play-offs by virtue of winning the BT conference. I don't think another BT team will make it.

I'm obviously going with the AP's CFB play-off pics: Alabama (1) v. Washington (4). Michigan (2) v. Clemson (3). Heh, M wins it all ...... HARBAUGH!!!!!

Now stand-by for me to look like a foolish homer as this very optimistic, looking through Maze and Blue glasses view of the 2018 season and CFB play-off crumbles in front of my eyes.

[iam416]

Good stuff, Buchanan. I don't think Notre Dame will be anywhere near as easy as that write-up. It's a 4th quarter, 1-score game, IMO. I think PSU will be much closer. It'll be interesting if M loses to ND, goes 8-1 in the East and wins the B10 -- do they get in as a 2-loss team? It's hard to see Clemson losing more than 1 game. The SEC Champ is an automatic. And if the SECCG is between two undefeated teams, I'd think the loser is in as well based on last year's precedent.

[Hannibal]

Five losses (ND, Wisky, MSU, OSU, PSU). LOL @ "does Michigan get into the playoff as a 2-loss team?"

[The Oracle]

Five losses (ND, Wisky, MSU, OSU, PSU). LOL @ "does Michigan get into the playoff as a 2-loss team?"

I'm sure you won't be taking any bets on the 5 loss woe is me, misery hannibalism. $500.

[WM Wolverine]

Over/under for M is 9.5 wins, which I wouldn't touch. 9-10 wins is my expectations... Really like the talent on this team, except at offensive tackle where the hope is they are better than adequate.

[iam416]

Yeah, I think 9' is a really hard number for this team. With 3 legitimately difficult road games you have to at least give them 1.5 losses. Then the question is "how good is Wisconsin, really?"

In my write-up for OSU I said that the TCU game will be much easier to predict after seeing Haskins spin it for two games. Stating the obvious, I know. But it's still worth saying. And it's worth saying that the 9' for M turns, IMO, on how well Shea plays at QB + to a lesser extent, tackle play. Lest anyone forget, last year at this time the board was mostly optimistic that Nolan Ulizio had emerged and supplanted JBB. Until that position is not a glaring weakness I think the presumption has to be that it is. Which really puts it back on Shea.

If the QB Whisperer can coach up a 5* QB then M should win 10 or 11 games. If he can't then they're going to fall closer to Hannibal's prediction.

Personally, I had M as the 2nd best pick in the B10 East (and drafted them accordingly). I'm banking on 9 as the floor and 11 as the reasonable ceiling.

[hack]

Well it's not just about Harbaugh getting the most out of Patterson that will get them to 10 or 11. It's those tackles too. I think the default assumption here has to be that the tackles aren't going to be any better, but the coaching is going to be coherent, Patterson's feet will extend a few drives that would have ended last year, and the move from O'Korn/Peters to an experienced QB will allow for more options from the playbook in a way that will help mask the tackles problem. To an extent.

I'm very tempted to say that the addition of Patterson and a year's maturation from the talented but young WRs puts Michigan at the 10-11 level. I'm also thinking that the fact that McCray's gone and all linebackers from here on will be built to play the spread is also an incremental factor. Even if you can still go over the safeties, there's one less mismatch available to exploit. But I think there still should be skepticism. It may be that Harbaugh's back-to-college adjustment still needs a few more tweaks before it's complete.

[WingsFan]

I posted a few hours ago and deleted b/c I didnt want to post Fake News - But looks like Black has a serious injury (leg) might be out for the year. Rashon Gary has injured his shoulder (?) should be back, Christian Turner is also injured wearing a cast. Will know all for sure tomorrow (open practice) nfm