Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[hack]

Still just ``a source"

[Jeff Buchanan]

Ed Warinner emerges as M's OL coach (per his twitter account) after Drevno resigns. He also tweets the M spring football schedule - starts 3/23 and ends in the Spring Game Saturday, 4/14.

Fingers crossed for me that Harbaugh is abandoning the Co-OC approach to play calling. As I said up thread, McElwain is unlikely to have joined M's staff as a WR coach. The strongest argument that he did just that is a re-hab gig, i.e., he took some major hits as a coach while at UF. Resume needs polishing kind of thing. I think he's going to end up as the OC but doubt that will be announced in line with JH's quirky submarine behavior in making it clear what his plans are.

While resume polishing is a potentially solid reason for him to sign on with M, there are just too many other clues suggesting major changes to Harbaugh's entire approach to the offense and offensive recruiting are in the offing. Morevoer, just guessing, the strategy for change has been in the works since Peters was concussed by a free rusher that became so as the result of blitheringly obvious missed assignment. The entire 2018 season was pocked by missed assignments ..... that's coaching and that's on Frey (now gone) and Drevno (also gone).

Drevno had a decent run in his first year working with an experienced OL (#13 Adjusted Sack Rate) but while the run game got better, number of sacks skyrocketed. M's play calling, obviously restricted by its ability to remain unpredictable due to QB play, became a laughing stock in terms of it's predictability. Incidentally, that has been a hallmark of M's offense since Jake Ruddock departed after the 2015 season. M's inability to attract talented OTs during his three million dollar tenure falls heavily on Drevno's shoulders. Frankly, M is going to labor under an all OG OL in 2018 and that isn't going to change any time soon it appears. Accordingly, I've got some doubts M's OL is going to be a killer unit in 2018 despite Warinner's reputation as an OL coach.

About QB play and Pep Hamilton. It's been terrible. Most say it's because the OL couldn't pass block and starting with season starter Wilton Speight, QBs feared the big hit and rightfully so. Clearly affects a QB's "it." My view is that the O'Korn (did not work out) and Patterson (TBD) recruitment reflects two things: (1) the OL reality and (2) A signal that JH seeks hybridizing of his strategy on offense. I feel that poor QB play is less about Pep Hamilton and more about a combination of the performance of the guy who is no longer on the staff - Tim Drevno and JH's apparent failure to adapt from what the players in the NFL game could do to the what the players in the college game can do. It is hard however to know definitively that QB regression/poor development is on Pep Hamilton or a combination of factors with PH being less of a factor than the others I've mentioned.

So, all things considered, regardless of who plays QB in 2018, we'll likely see a more option based run game - still out of pro-style sets. IZ will still be the likely bread and butter run play as it fits in well with an increase in RPO plays. QBs are going to be more comfortable in an offense like this where they get rid of the ball much more quickly than in the long developing deep throws that JH/PH seemed to be trying to implement although very unsuccessfully.

The only fly-in-the-ointment in this thinking is that McElwain isn't an option kind of OC. His offense at UF was very much like M's. I also think if JH is driving the change reflective of the team's QB/OL reality, McElwain will follow and I suspect JH made that clear to him when he was offered.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This isn't a bad article even though it doesn't move the dial one way or the other regarding the question of Patterson's eligibility for the 2018 season. Key points raised:

The NCAA system is dysfunctional and predicting a decision on Patterson in a dysfunctional and inconsistent NCAA is impossible.

A decision favorable to Patterson lies in his side being able to convince the NCAA that he and the other student athletes pressing the eligibility issue along with Patterson were misled about the severity of the likelihood of NCAA sanctions and that those sanctions would result in bowl bans. In that way, it comes down to a he said, she said circumstance.

A decision unfavorable to Patterson and his cohorts would send just another signal that the NCAA institution and it's members are more important than the student athlete. Observers think that is not the kind of message Emmert wants to send but the fact that he has been tone deaf since he assumed leadership there, who knows.

https://www.landof10.com/michigan/michigan-football-shea-patterson-transfer-ncaa-ole-miss-2018

[Hannibal]

We'll see if Warriner can work the same magic at UM as he worked at OSU. And "magic" is an appropriate term there. His OLs were ridiculous and that was arguably OSU's weakest recruiting area. The work that he did with the discombobulated patchwork bunch that was left over from the Fickell era was incredible. OSU averaged 245 ypg rushing with a converted TE playing tackle.

[iam416]

As it turned out, he had some players there. Converting Fragel was a really good move, but they had Mewhort, Norwell and Linsley anchoring that line with ol' Double Bird Hall.

Perhaps it's a credit to his player development, but the first 3 players are all starting in the NFL and playing well (and they were fairly highly regarded recruits -- 4* -- so was Hall).

He also coached Price, Elflein and Decker. I think the job he/OSU did with Price is fairly remarkable.

Anyway, no matter how you slice it -- he took good recruits (not great) and put together very good OLs and developed a shit-ton of NFL OL in a short span. That's light years ahead of M's efforts in the space.

[Hannibal]

Yeah he wasn't working with the Nolan Ulizios of the world, but if I remember right, he had lots of low 4* and high 3* guys there. Kind of like us now.

But in the end, the offense is Harbaugh's. I'm still skeptical. There were big time problems at the top of the team last year that fall directly on Jim's head.

[iam416]

Ulizio. Woof.

[hack]

Well our guys have done little with talent that still winds up in the NFL. We should be very excited about the OL change, even though it doesn't address other serious issues.

[Hannibal]

Yup. The other issue is that Harbaugh seemed like he was checked out last year and nobody was in charge. And that one is much bigger.

[hack]

There's just so little in the way of facts to support those feelings. I agree with you that a guy in his 50s known for sideline tantrums doesn't just flip a switch and become composed. Then again, there were still plenty of times where the offensive gameplan was pretty damn good. He can be as checkedout as he wants to be if he can keep doing things like going up 14-0 against OSU with O'Korn as QB.

IMO the other REAL issue is QB play. None of them improved last year and 2 of 3 regressed. (Not possible with O'Korn to actually get worse.)

[Hannibal]

There was his demeanor on the sidelines, but also the coaching staff. Greg Frey and Drevno obviously did not mesh together. The playcalling was really bad most of the time. The offense constantly looked out of sync and confused. Next to nobody made progress. The team was just so poorly coached on so many levels. I can't imagine a fully engaged Harbaugh letting that happen, which is why I'm speculating that he has something going on off the field. The child-like enthusiasm that Harbaugh has always shown for the game just didn't seem to be there.

[Detroit Dan]

It seems like the passing game meltdown was a team thing -- QBs, OL, receivers The running game was actually pretty good. I'm glad to see major, if belated, reshuffling with the offensive coaches.

[hack]

Without question it wasn't just a shitty OL or bad QBs. It looked like a poorly-coached team in multiple ways last year on offense. It really did, yes. You're right that it's not just sideline antics. It was very inconsistent. At times it was chicken-salad kind of offense, and at other times it was all chicken shit.

[Jeff Buchanan]

There's just so little in the way of facts to support those feelings. .....

I tend to agree with this and disagree with the view that something was or is wrong with Harbaugh's heatlh beyond what I addressed up thread (WPW v. A-Fib).

Neither of these heart conditions are life threatening except under the most unusual circumstances. Having either of them could be sobering to the patient who has them. By-in-large though, for most who do have them cardiologists will encourage you to not lie around because of them as exercise is beneficial given the conditions. Moreover, I can't believe Harbaugh would have started dialing it back in any significant way knowing he had either of these conditions.

I also can't see how a major health issue afflicting Jim Harbaugh would not have leaked out. My guess from watching the team in Tampa was that their play and the emotions on the sideline (I sat 12 rows up behind the M bench) signaled major clubhouse problems. Like I said earlier in this thread, it's my view that the offensive performance, most notably the OL allowing big hits on M's QBs and including JH's own self analysis, prompted some soul searching. Harbaugh may have done a good bit of screaming at the coaches. This never works out well. It can produce disarray rather than improvement and the team, as Hack remarked, did look in disarray on many occasions after Speight went down and especially after Peters was concussed.

[whodean]

Indeed lot of respect for Dan. I wouldn't get excited about 2018 either :-)

There are quite a few reasons for optimism, actually. Player experience and seasoning, incoming talent at the QB position etc.

That schedule is a real bitch though.