Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[froot loops]

I think the title passing game coordinator and running game coordinator are just gussied up titles of duties that assistants have always had.

[whodean]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jeff Buchanan]

You have to read the entire thread at mgoboards. These are futures - talent, and others here, know the betting stuff much more than I could ever hope to or want to.

M was 14-1 to win the NC entering 2017, only five teams had better futures. They are 10-1 entering 2018 and you see those teams above M above.

What I am told this means is that the sharks think M is better entering 2018 than they were entering 2017. Thus the improved futures.

As usual, there is plenty of rainbows being blown out the asses of unicorns at mgoboard about this. I'm not even thinking about wins and losses until we see how the coaching staff shakes out, especially on offense AND who the starting QB is.

I can't imagine the OL being as bad as they were in 2017 but even that's a guess right now. A functional QB and OL will help. How much in 2018? No way to tell right now but the sharks seem to think M will be improved from 2017. Can't disagree. 2017 was BADDDD.

[whodean]

You have to read the entire thread at mgoboards

If I wanted to do that I wouldn't be here.

[hack]

I have about a ten-post limit before I can't read an mgoblog thread any further. Well beyond me how anyone can handle that.

[iam416]

What I am told this means is that the sharks think M is better entering 2018 than they were entering 2017. Thus the improved futures.

No, but Vegas thinks they have roughly those odds. That's a real reflection, IMO, of what Vegas thinks.

But, it's odds to win the NC (and, as a prerequisite make the CFP), so it's not best team. Alabama should be 1:2 since they're already in the CFP next year. That also means no SEC West team will make it -- which is why a really good team like Auburn is low. Clemson's path is 2nd easiest.

Georgia at 8:1 reflects the very real likelihood that the SEC CG will be an exhibition where both teams make the CFP.

There's not a great deal of difference b/t 8/10/12:1. If you think of the implied odds, it's 12.5%, 10%, 8.3%. So the see the East as pretty even.

I'd have to look at schedules for the others, but the price I like best on that board (aside from the Alabama steal) is Miami at 25:1.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This was in a post at mboboard unrelated to M's 2018 outlook but was posted in response to incessant whining from the peanut gallery about 3* OLmen:

Bredeson - 4-star, 0.9799 (Mattison, Drevno)

Onwenu - 4-star, 0.9571 (Drevno)

Ruiz - 4-star, 0.9786 (Partridge, Drevno)

Hudson - 4-star, 0.9121 (Mattison, Partridge - was both DE and OL)

Filiaga - 4-star, 0.9475 (Drevno)

Mayfield - 4-star, 0.9023 (Drevno)

Hayes - 4-star, 0.8968 (Frey)

Two things standout: (1) The guys coming up on the OL are talented. (2) Frey, because he wasn't there, had nothing to do with their recruitment (except Hayes and that was late). It's all Drevno and Partridge. Spinallis was left out of that list because, he's a 3*. He started the OB Bowl at C. He would not have been out there if he wasn't physically ready. Compared to his recruiting videos he's gotten a lot bigger. We'll probably see him in the 2018, 2 deep at C/OG at the least. Frey probably did have a lot to do with coaching these guys though. Good v. Bad job? Who knows and who cares. Just get it together for 2018.

For 2018, the OL commits are:

Hayes - 4 star, 0.896 (Frey)

Mayfiled - 4 star 0.902 (Drevno)

5*, Petitte Frerr WAS being recruited by Frey for the 2018 class. He'd be a big loss and there's nothing floating around that hints he's staying in FL v. coming to Ann Arbor.

Makes the rumors that Drevno is staying in an unknown capacity with hints at Assistant HC/OL make sense.

The word is that staff finalization/announcements, despite the need to get on with recruiting, isn't going to happen as soon as maybe it should because negotiations are still underway.

umbig.11 made a post that we should not expect any big time staff hires like the names floating around (Canada, Gundy, et. al.). Not sure I like diminished talk of a new OC. I'd be unhappy if Drevno stayed on as OC for 2018. He also shot down the recent rumor of Mike Hart at RB coach. Not going to happen.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is the only news this morning on the coaching staff that I can say is coming from multiple sources that aren't echoing each other .......

Offensive Analyst Scott Turner is headed to the Carolina Panthers where he will work under his father Norv Turner who?s the Offensive Coordinator there. Also there?s news (noise?) that Hamilton is headed to the Raiders.

There is so much BS out there right now, I feel pretty good about just waiting until staff changes additions or subtractions are officially announced.

[Jeff Buchanan]

From mgoblog ..... CMU TE's coache Sherron Moore to join the coaching staff.

Out of the blue hire, he's got a good rep and resume although very young (34). He worked with Enos at CMU so, there is that.

Still no word on Pep Hamilton and most are speculating he and Drevno both stay. But with the hiring of Enos, that is puzzling if accurate.

On the passing game ......There was a lengthy discussion about it in one of the threads at mgoboard this week. It essentially said that Michigan's passing game, arguably it's worst in terms of production in the modern era, had more to do with Peter's limitations than it did with Pep Hamilton's schemes.

The basis of that claim came from the well known chain of events that led to Speight starting and O'Korn in relief after Speight went down. Peters, as it was said, just wasn't ready; apparently he still isn't if the Outback is an indicator of that, and may just not be that good.

IMO, it's Peter's mechanics, his slow release, that is a problem; you can couple that with slow reads, not looking off the primary, inexperienced receivers in terms of route running and you have what you have.

Watching the NC game and on the ESPN News feed with that the film room thing, Mike Gundy was talking about how his QBs had to have a quick release (under 3s is ideal) to make his offense work. Duke's HC, David Cutcliff echoed that saying that HS guys Duke might be looking at, if they didn't have that down by their Junior year in HS, they weren't a prospect.

Admittedly this is offensive scheme specific for both these teams (Duke and OkSt) but UGA is a power team and Fromm gets the ball out in like 2.5s according to the coaches commenting on this. The most noticeable thing in UGA's passing game was how the receivers could run themselves open and Fromm would hit them for the split second they were open. That's coaching, the ability to read the defense and make check downs as the drop back takes place or while the snap is the air (i.e., can't have your QB looking at the ball and your hands - have to be looking out at the defense and receivers in that first second) and chemistry and it frustrates me that M can't seem to get that part of their offense to work.

This leads me to the notion that the Patterson deal was very specifically related to how he plays the game, his mechanics, his apparently quick reads and his mentality. If you look at Alabama's QB situation in that game, Hurts wasn't making it happen so, Saban goes with Tua Tagovailoa who lit up the UGA secondary to win that game for Alabama. Coaches in the film room I was watching commented on how quickly he made his reads and how he looked off his primary. That is really hard to do and may be an innate skill. I think it is safe to say that Saban, when he went with Hurts, was looking for a quicker pass game. There is no question that when he recruited Tua, he saw exactly what he was looking for in his mechanics and quick read capacity. This, even though he was not highly sought after but still a 4* and well regarded.

We'll see how all this sorts out with coaches and QBs but if M has a plodding, inefficient offense, like it has been in 2017, then finishes 4th in the BIG, I'm pretty likely to bail on season tickets with diminished hopes that Harbaugh is going to make M anything better than Hoke would have and at half the cost.

[whodean]

Sources told me that Michigan assistant Chris Partridge was offered a linebacker coaching position at Alabama, but Partridge decided against taking the job and is turning down the offer. A source said more offers might be on the table for Partridge,but the Alabama job is being turned down.

https://t.co/4dsaB7tD4w

— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) January 12, 2018

Excellent news is true.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is updated based on various stuff I'm hearing or reading:

HC: JH
Assistant HC, OL Drevno (best available info says he's staying)

DC: Don Brown
Assistant DC, DL: Mattison
LB: Al Washington
DB: Mike Zordich
ST: Al Washington
TBD: Chris Partridge*

Co-OC - Run Game Coordinator: TBD (going to be tied to RBs coach)
Co-OC - Pass Game Coordinator: Pep Hamilton (best info says he's leaving)
RB: TBD
OL: Drevno
TE: Sherron Moore
WR: Enos**
Jay Harbuagh TBD

S&C: Ben Herbert

A lot of speculation on Co-Coordinator jobs. Those jobs are still held by Drevno and Hamilton. Not even any smoke about them other than neither of them are reportedly recruiting at the moment and one or both are leaving.

Officially announced are Dan Enos, WR, Sherron Moore, TE and Al Washington, LBs. *In Enos's case, the speculation is that at some point, he's going to get bumped to an OC position. He is still getting paid by Arky ($500K?) so his UM salary ($150K) appears low, not in line with an OC position but it is a portion of some total amount that he has agreed to by contract.

*The Chris Partridge saga has still not been completed. Yes, he turned down Saban but, reportedly he is still considering other offers. That Al Washington seems to be the new LBs coach suggests Partridge may not be staying at M. Confused about Jay Harbaugh - I cannot imagine he's going to stay at RBs coach but it seems all this will be sorted out with Co-OC Run Game guy. Who knows.

My take is WTF? This reminds me of the period right before the RR hire. Confusion. It's easy to read too much into this but that some key staff positions have not been locked down during a critical recruiting period is troubling. M is very likely being negatively described by recruiters from other programs because of this.

[Rocky Bleier]

Jay Harbaugh should be picking up his uncle John's dry cleaning and running the Ravens' copy machine.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Feldman is reporting Chris Partridge has signed a contract with Michigan this weekend.

There's speculation that the coaching staff is set and that Drevno and Hamilton are both staying. This weekend they were reportedly out recruiting. With Partridge re-signing and the hiring of Enos and Washington, the assistant coaching staff is at 10 coaches.

Others think that coaching changes may still occur after the NFL play-offs and again after NSD and that Hamilton, at least, is still in play.

Let's hope. I see no changes in M's plodding offense if both Drevno and Hamilton stay. The early talk of their departure and rumors of a new OC fed some fan enthusiasm after the shit show that was the OB Bowl. That seems to be dying out.

[Hannibal]

If both guys stay then it wouldn't surprise me if Harbaugh is gone after 2018. Next year is shaping up to be a disaster.

[froot loops]

You are better off with the continuity, musical chairs with the assistants isn't the way to go.