Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[FanFromCali]

I don't have a horse in this race, but I think the media was slightly slightly unfair to Michigan and Harbaugh as this was supposed to be a down year. I also would say no matter what outside influences say otherwise, I think you have the right coach for the job.

Now, I will say the couple of times I did watch Michigan play the offense looked surprisingly bad and the quarterback situation absolutely needs to be fixed (especially when the team is being coached by a former QB). As well, Ohio St. has consistently been a recruiting monster and thus I don't see Michigan's record against them improving much. But all that said, I would not be surprised if Harbaugh has the team back into the elite very soon. He is too good of a coach not to.

[Jeff Buchanan]

......My personal O/U is 8.5 (my guess is that Vegas will have it at 8 ). I think 8-4 with a marginally improved offense; 9-3 with real improvement and 10-2/11-1 if the lights come on like the Griswold home at Christmas.

Your point about it being hard for you to call an OU based on the offense is exactly right.

If you project Peters, the OL, the passing and running games based on what we saw in 2017, the 8-4 call seems right.

The problem is that there are a lot of moving parts right now and going into the off-season: The outcome of a Peters/Patterson battle, Drevno, Frey and Hamilton gone/??? staff replacements. There are really no constants, other than Harbaugh and his MO for 2017. Will his MO defined by 2017 and informed by his resume dictate the 2018 Offense? Will he evolve his MO?

In a scenario where his MO based on 2015-2017 dictates the offense, I'd say 8-4 is a ceiling and it could be worse.

In a scenario where he does the following, 9 or more wins are possible:

(1) HAS TO CHANGE passing schemes. M’s 2017 passing schemes sucked (WCO) and Pep Hamilton has to be held accountable (rumored gone/replaced by Enos?). Under Pep's watch they were too limited, predictable and easy to cover with inexperienced QBs and receivers executing them. Routes were slow to develop. It took too long for the QB to make his reads. That produced a high sack/injury rate. Those schemes depended heavily on hard to make NFL level throws off complicated reads. Scheme to what Patterson (or Peters - but he'll have to adjust**) bring to the table.

** BTW Peters was a Pistol guy in HS but different mechanics than Patterson. In the video below he has a slow release compared to the video on Patterson at MS up thread. In his few starts, he has demonstrated 3 step quick drop backs and quick release throws though that aren't terrible.

[ame]https://youtu.be/pr3Hm29_xio[/ame]

(2) JH HAS TO CHANGE/UPDATE/EVOLVE his MO. While he was successful at both the college and NFL levels, it's easy to explain why. That was in the past. New kind of college game; Harbaugh has to adapt or risk being be passed by other coaches that have adapted. If he doesn't adapt, he'll insure M will remain a second or third tier team in an improving BIG.

(3) M has not had a 1000y RB since 2011 and anyone with eyeballs knows the OL play has not been championship caliber. It hasn't even been marginally good. It is BAD and, at this point, I think it is safe to say a lot of the BAD is on Drevno (rumored gone)/Frey (gone). Rumored former M OLmen Kurt Anderson to coach OL. Can't continue to have a rushing attack that averages 3ypc with Harbaughffense. Probably the #1 thing that needs drastic improvement.

(4) Play design and calls in 2017 were marginally good (osu) to dreadful (OB bowl, PSU and MSU). HAS TO IMPROVE. Looks like the collaborative play calling will continue. That the run play calling in particular appeared Debordian in both 2016 and 17 has to be a huge disappointment given expectations. Combined with an ineffective passing game M had the 107th ranked offense in the FBS in 2017. That is a record going back to 1968. No telling who will be doing the play calling in 2018; JH for sure in one capacity or another. Otherwise Drevno?/Enos? or Roman?/???. Big question mark and this factor may alone be the most important one for determining if M's offense moves up from #107 in 2017 and wins more than 8 games although the nitty gritty behind that as described above plays a part as well.

Bottom line, really can't say M will improve beyond 8 wins until we see who gets hired in the off season that will impact changes in the O and what kind of O appears in the early season games of 2018. We may see something in the spring game but I doubt it. If there's a big change in the O and it involves Patterson at QB, we won't see it until it shows up on the field in SB.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Scratch Greg Roman and I'm not disappointed .......

Baltimore Ravens tight end Coach Greg Roman isn't going anywhere after all.

A source tell Sporting News that Roman will be re-signing with the Baltimore Ravens and given an assistant head coach designation. Roman's contract was set to expire with the Ravens and he was prepared to pursue opportunities elsewhere, but with the Ravens showing improvement in their running game over the course of the 2017 season, Baltimore stepped up to keep him in the fold.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/greg-roman-ravens-coach-marty-mornhinweg-offensive-coordinator-new-latest-coaching-changes/1na5szdkrxlr11urac0tiqym98

[froot loops]

You can put point #3 in big, bold 24 point fonts. By year 4 the offensive line should be taking shape where it is a constant, deep unit. Something like what the Lloyd Carr years produced, they would field some nasty offensive lines. I kind of thought thats where Harbaugh woukd have them. In some ways it seems like you are starting over here in season 4.

[froot loops]

You are right not to be disappointed in not getting Greg Roman.

[Jeff Buchanan]

........ In some ways it seems like you are starting over here in season 4.

Not completely but the passing game kind-of skews M's total offense numbers/rank a bit. M's rushing game really wasn't awful on the season. #49, 4.4ypc, 178ypg; osu #18, MSU #64.

Notably, against good defenses, and I include Usc's performance in the OB Bowl, and in all M's losses, M rushed for under 3ypc. So, there is that which I give a lot of weight to in assessing M's run game/OL performance.

Mitigating factors are injuries and lack of a set of consistent starters, particularly affecting the run game in the OB Bowl. That does not absolve those in charge of developing a functional OL which didn't happen and, IMO, demonstrates a massive FAIL.

The hiring of Greg Frey turned out to be a terrible decision. I'd like to know who thought that one up although JH has to be held accountable. It also appeared, despite the collaborative nature of the play calling mechanism, that Drevno was overwhelmed with his OC duties and it affected his ability to coach the OL.

Besides getting someone in as an OC, Co-OC or whatever you want to call him to give the offense, in general, some new life, somebody who can coach OL is an absolute must.

My view is there's talent on the interior and functionality at OT no matter who plays out there. I'm not talking about Grant Newsome coming back. For reasons that I listed in a previous post about his medical condition, I'd be amazed if he ever plays again let alone in 2018.

There's plenty of bodies listed at OT on the 2018 depth chart. Bushell-Beatty isn't terrible - I'd call him functional at OT assuming he gets his shit together and doesn't get bounced out of the program. To me the most critical 2018 recruit is 5* OT Petite-Frere who has the tools and size to play right away and would given M's depth chart.

http://mgoblog.com/content/depth-chart-class-updated#comments

So, start-over? Probably not and by sheer numbers and starts M's OL is maybe a bit ahead of the game for 2018.

[Hannibal]

Frey is an elite coach. The mistake may have been not in the hiring but in not firing Drevno and making Frey the only OL coach. They split the OL duties, the playcalling duties, everything. It looked like a situation where everybody was responsible and as a result, nobody was. Sort of like a shitty group project in colllege.

[hack]

It seems like you could have anticipated the Frey issues in advance, but they gave zone guy his shot before gap guys proved to deliver the better approach. That doesn't make Frey an idiot. Just a bad spot for him. Still, it's on JH to put a coherent offense out there. Gimmicks aren't going to replace solid players executing a solid scheme. We do indeed have to hope that JBB gets out of the doghouse, and if so, we should absolutely EXPECT Harbaugh to find a coaching combination that schemes around his pass-pro issues. Sounds like pistol is a possibility there. It's Harbaugh's job sometimes to get some chickenshit into the chicken salad without impacting the taste.

Sigh re Newsome. The combination of that injury plus the several misses on OTs in recruiting have really created a problem.

[Hannibal]

OT was already looking like a looming threat when the 2016 class was signed. That one should have at least had one more Plan B guy. And fucksakes, we should have never told Erik Swenson to GTFO. I don't understand why they didn't try to bulk up Wheatley to OT size from day 1. He was already pretty close when he arrived and the need for OT depth at the time was greater than the need for TE depth. As it stand we have a handful of upperclassmen who suck ass and a handful of redshirt freshmen who were at least fairly decent recruits. This is the kind of roster mismanagement that I am just sick to death of.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, per Bruce Feldman, Enos is official.

https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB

Not having heard a whole bunch about Drevno, he could be staying in what role I have no clue. I can't imagine Enos would take a job below what he held at Arky (OC) and, if I've got this right, he was the one guy retained among 9 assistants who got let go along with Bielema.

Here's a pre-season Bio on him from Arkansas:

Enos joined head coach Bret Bielema’s staff in January of 2015 after spending the previous five seasons as head coach at Central Michigan. He boasts more than 20 years of experience coaching skill position players and over 10 years of play-calling experience, including all five years at Central Michigan. He has tutored and developed many NFL stars, including offensive tackle Eric Fisher, who became the first Mid-American Conference player to be selected No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft in 2013 by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Backed by his pro-style offense that features a balanced attack, Enos has turned the Arkansas offense into a threat through the air and on the ground. Over his two seasons as OC, Arkansas is one of two FBS programs with 3,000-yard passer and 1,300-yard rusher in both 2015 and 2016. Even more impressive, the Razorbacks are the only program to accomplish the feat with a different quarterback and different running back in each of those seasons.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Mentioned earlier but former M Guard Kurt Anderson is getting some run at a couple of sites as a replacement for Frey. With the Enos hiring (if true), Anderson, who was one of the Assistant Coaches at Arkansas who was terminated with Bielema, this makes sense.

http://www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/coache/kurt-anderson/

[hack]

OT was already looking like a looming threat when the 2016 class was signed. That one should have at least had one more Plan B guy. And fucksakes, we should have never told Erik Swenson to GTFO. I don't understand why they didn't try to bulk up Wheatley to OT size from day 1. He was already pretty close when he arrived and the need for OT depth at the time was greater than the need for TE depth. As it stand we have a handful of upperclassmen who suck ass and a handful of redshirt freshmen who were at least fairly decent recruits. This is the kind of roster mismanagement that I am just sick to death of.

I wondered about Wheatley too, but just because we hear out there that he could be a suitable OT doesn't mean that he actually could be. That was early speculation, and I'd imagine the staff isn't so incredibly bumbling that they never considered it. Same goes for Swenson. We'll see if he gets any run as a starter at Oklahoma soon enough, but there's no need to just assume that was a complete boondoggle. They had their reasons.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On the Tim Drevno front, "All Quiet...."

Frankly, I think this signals he's staying. OTH, he may be in negotiations with another program, maybe to the NFL so there's going to be secrecy here. On the stay side of the ledger:

He got a 5y contract worth $5m or $1m/y in January, '17. He's one of a handful of CFB assistants making a million or more/y. I can't imagine a buy-out clause as assistants don't get them and that whole concept is on thin ice these days for HCs.

Drevno and Harbaugh go way back so, I can see him staying and Hanni will hate the paternalism bit. Trying to make lemon aid out of lemons, maybe there's a bunch of stuff we don't know. He definitely has a good resume. Assistant HC, maybe? Enos Pass game coordinator, Drevno Run Game Coordinator? This one is hard to figure.

On the Go side:

He coached the OL with SF under JH. Other than that no NFL experience and he'd probably take a pay cut based on that. But if he's out at M, he's out and looking for work.

He could end up as a CFB HC although I don't have 2017/18 vacancies at hand ..... anyone?

[Rocky Bleier]

Next year's offense is going to suck unless Patterson can successfully throw an accurate pass while running for his life. One look at the depth chart for OT, and you'll see what a mess it is. There is no excuse for it, since Hoke also left the position in terrible shape.

http://www.mgoblog.com/content/michigan-depth-chart-class-0

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hanni commented on this and his comments are appropriate. Management of OL recruiting since 2015 leaves something to be desired........

OT was already looking like a looming threat when the 2016 class was signed. That one should have at least had one more Plan B guy. And fucksakes, we should have never told Erik Swenson to GTFO. I don't understand why they didn't try to bulk up Wheatley to OT size from day 1. He was already pretty close when he arrived and the need for OT depth at the time was greater than the need for TE depth. As it stand we have a handful of upperclassmen who suck ass and a handful of redshirt freshmen who were at least fairly decent recruits. This is the kind of roster mismanagement that I am just sick to death of.