Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[iam416]

If M doesn't play ND this season, the Buckeyes go to the CFP over the Sooners.

I'm not getting this, exactly. You think the win in Columbus looks more impressive and they jump OU? I think if M beats ND then the CFP has a real choice between UGA and OSU and they still pick UGA.

[iam416]

The thing is, if we lose, I think it way more likely to be a defensive issue than an offensive one.

Correct. UAT's offense has been pretty damn good.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On Alabama's A- offense ......

It's close between OU and Alabama. I was surprised how close when I looked at some statistical comparisons beyond PPG.

Oklahoma passed 364 times for 11.6 YPA with 41 TDs by air and rushed 495 times for 6.7 YPC and 40 TDs by ground = A
Alabama passed 374 times for 11.3 YPA with 37 TDs by air and rushed 492 times for 5.3 YPC and 31 TDs by ground = A-

The two links below show the same closeness but OU holds the edge in most all of the statistical categories. I like Bill Walsh's stats. They're easier to understand. This is indeed a 1.v 2 match-up but statistically OU is the #1 or A team and Bama the #2 or A- team:

Alabama's Fancy Stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ugvRR/pubhtml#
OU's Fancy Stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ugvRR/pubhtml#

S&P+ has Alabama as a 67% win probability so, you've got that going for you. OU, OTH, wins the eyeball test for me. It's a fun to watch, hi-octane offense that features a really efficient and dynamic pass/run combination. Fancy stats bears out that OU is more efficient and more explosive than the Tide in all the Five Factors stats. It's close, like really close in all but one where OU is the clear #1 in points per scoring opportunity while Bama is #7.

Admittedly, it's hair splitting here. I suppose you could say both teams have A+ offenses compared to Clemson and ND but Indulge me. The comment, or parts within it, you're taking issue with was made to make a point and that is: I want Harbaugh to get real about winning championships because his approach has proven he needs to implement a more dynamic offense - way more dynamic - to do what he states he came to M to do. He'll watch the game and come away with a wow, that was something. Both teams are so dynamic. He's got the players on offense to build a similar dynamism. Will he do it? That is the big question for me.

[Wellington_beefhouser]

[iam416]

Alabama is going to absolutely rail Oklahoma. They're a high confidence pick for me in the Bowl Pool (-14) and they're my highest confidence pick to win the national title (SU).

Oklahoma will score some, but their defense is horrific. Alabama is going to win this by something like 55-31.

[Cody_Russell]

Agree with Iam. Bama -14.5 easily.
Oklahoma's #1 WR Marquise Brown might be out. If not, far from 100% healthy. Bama's defense is BY FAR better than anything Oklahoma has seen this season. It'll be that classic bowl game where a B12 offense is slowed down because they are actually playing a competent defense. I mean, 2008 Oklahoma ("best offense ever") only scored 14 in their bowl game vs Florida. Murray winning the Heisman could hurt as he has a bigger target on his back.
It'll be impressive if Bama punts the ball once.

Bama wins 58-27. Some of these Oklahoma points will be in junk time.

If M doesn't play ND this season, the Buckeyes go to the CFP over the Sooners.

I'm not so sure that'd be the case. M would be ranked #3 instead of #4 vs Ohio State? M being ranked one spot better doesn't seem like it'd be enough to jump Ohio State over both Georgia and Oklahoma. Besides, the biggest factor that kept Ohio State out is their embarrassing loss to Purdue.

[WM Wolverine]

I'm not sure either but just a random thought.

[hack]

talent. you are a dick .... no doubt about it. Liney and all the guys that followed him out the door because you are a dick were justified.... you are a dick.

Still, I like your dickish style because it keeps M homerism in check. Having sampled opinions on you from those that left, even after I told them you check M homerism, none of them agree with me. They just think you're a fucking dick

You are a dick. But dicks serve a purpose so, there is that.

Carry on.

The homer talent spends the most amount of time attempting/failing to check has credited talent with the ability to check homerism.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Rumor floating around the Tweetosphere (is there such a word?) that Harbaugh seems to be talking with Jedd Fisch about returning to M. He's currently at UCLA (and look at that offense to see how I feel about Fisch)

Here's my take. Regardless of what you may think of Pep Hamilton, he's not the problem and bringing back Jedd Fisch isn't going to improve M's offense whose well understood problems belong solely to Jim Harbaugh.

You would have liked Cliff Kingsbury or someone like him as OC? Not going to happen. Stars like Kingsbury want complete control including over the kind of stuff that Ed Warriner is doing. That's not going to happen with Jim Harbaugh as HC. Jim is the defacto OC and I doubt very much he's going to subordinate that roll like Brian Kelly at ND appears to have done to someone else.

What could work? I actually think JH is looking for new input on offense and may be searching for a rising rental assistant like McElwain that is a potential HC coach in waiting for some other program. I'd want a guy that Harbaugh both trusts AND will listen to. He also has to be good at understanding and teaching the kinds of schemes that are becoming dominant, championship level offensive schemes in the CFB game. I don't think Fisch adds much. A guy like Kevin Wilson, without the ass-hat luggage, would.

M needs a more dynamic offense that can score in the red zone from inside the 20 (M's red zone efficiency in 2018 was 27.1% and ranked 127th nationally. OU and Alabama rank 4-9).

M needs to finish drives (M scored only 4.7 points per scoring opportunity and ranked 60th nationally. OU and Alabama rank 1-2).

M needs to be more explosive (M ranks 85th in that category. OU and Alabama rank 1-2).

M needs to play faster - tempo (M ranks 118th in possessions per game).

Harbaugh's MO is a ball control, run-centric offense (only passed 37% of the time) that plays to his defense and relies on obtaining a short field. That philosophy has proven to be vulnerable and it's not a talent thing. He's miss-using the talent he has on the roster, IMO. He rings up a lot of TOP but as we all know that is a meaningless number these days. Points win games and in the modern CFB era it's the ability to score lots of them.

TBF, both OU and Alabama have balanced offenses but their play selection based on down, distance, clock and the score differential seems to be much more dynamic to the eye. Also, both of these offenses score a lot of points - around 48 and they rank 1-2 in that category too. M is somewhere in the middle in PPG.

So, I don't think Harbaugh needs to or should go Air-Raid. But he does need to go off script - be more innovative on both standard and non-standard downs. Again, based on the eyeball check, M's offense is pretty predictable and has been for all four years of Harbaugh's tenure as HC. M can, and has proven it can, over-power some opponents with Harbaugh's approach but not all of them and the ones' that philosophy isn't working against tend to be teams with equal or better talent that are employing more dynamic play calling than Michigan does and scoring boat loads of points in the process. Harbaugh's approach isn't going to win championships and I think he sees that as only a blind man ignores what osu did in unprecedented fashion.

[WingsFan]

Jedd is with the LA Rams

[Detroit Dan]

Jedd Fisch (born May 5, 1976) is an American football coach. He is a senior offensive assistant for the Los Angeles Rams of the National Football League (NFL). Fisch served as the interim head football coach at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) for the final two games of the 2017 season. He was the quarterbacks coach, wide receivers coach, and passing game coordinator under Jim Harbaugh at the University of Michigan from 2015 to 2016.^[1] Fisch has served several stints as an assistant coach in both the professional and college ranks.

[Detroit Dan]

I like Talent. He occasionally says nice things about me, which implies that he's listening and appreciating what others say.

There are other good commenters here, of course, including all of you reading this. The negativity of some at times can seem overwhelming, but that's a general problem on Internet blogs and forums.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Personally, I hate talent ...... and AA. You can add Wiz in there too.

[UMStan White]

Detroit Dan--the Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm of UM football (not that it is a bad thing)

[Jeff Buchanan]

He is a refreshing guy ..... in sort of "what me worry" sort of way.