Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

[AlabamAlum]

That presumes I know a lot about the Umaa team. I do not, really. Just generalities.

[THE_WIZARD_]

That will be a beat down similar to little brothers beating 3 years ago at the hands of The Nick...

[WM Wolverine]

Re: Indiana... Ramsey picked up any first downs he wanted on third downs with his feet. I thought the offense stalling and settling for field goals is a bigger issue, one that will keep them from competing with defenses like Bama, Clemson.

[hack]

I am here for all of your Alabama questions.

If I ever find myself in Alabama, what's the fastest way to leave?

[THE_WIZARD_]

kill yourself

[Jeff Buchanan]

Re: Indiana... I thought the offense stalling and settling for field goals is a bigger issue, one that will keep them from competing with defenses like Bama, Clemson.

That's got a lot of analysis since the game on Saturday. I charted M's offense in the first half. M had 6 possessions.

#1. 9 plays and a FG,
#2. 3 plays and a punt,
#3. 8 plays and a FG,
#4. 7 plays and a FG,
#5. 6 plays and a TD
#6. 6 plays and a derp.

The run/pass distribution was about 60/40. Drive #4 had 6 passes and 1 run. Possessions alternated between run and pass centric but runs predominated on standard downs. M's offense is one of play calling that produces a high probability of 3rd and short at the lowest risk with an occasional deep shot. In order to see a pattern change from that in possession to possession play calling, you have to know what IU was showing as a defense at the snap. When asked, Patterson uniformly says, we take what the defense gives us. At this point of the season, he's probably making the calls from a set of plays that come in from the sideline with substitutions. We're not going to know the opponent's D except what Brian can glean from video and that is never good enough to visualize what the Ss and LBs do after the snap. The camera always pans in to close shots. If the network obliges with multi angle replays, that's good but there are few of those.

If there is an issue with play calling, my bet it is with what Patterson is seeing on D, what he's allowed to do with play sets and then what play he runs. I think he misses a run blitz or three. I base that on my observation that IU LBs and Ss were inexplicably and correctly flowing to the POA. Was IU disguising blitz packages? Don't think so. I could see them coming, not from the stands, only after watching video. Is M tipping plays by formations? Possibly but a lot of that is tactical gamesmanship - or RPS. Maybe a problem, maybe not. The other is play sets that Patterson is probably getting need to break tendencies more than they seem to do, RPS be damned. I don't think you need to run certain run concepts a half dozen times out of different formations before you use a counter to it. Those counters are in the play-book and as far as I've seen of them, they are good and succeed when run.

That's one of the things that bugs me about Harbaughffense. He likes to tinker and toy while he fundamentally is happy with pounding the opponent, controlling the game and eyeballing it's flow. It keeps games too close for my comfort. It can be frustrating at times but so far it's gotten Michigan to 10-1. I can live with it and in the strategic nature of the game on the season or macro level, setting up your opponent by breaking tendencies in the most important game of the season - The Game - is something completely consistent with Jim Harbaugh's coaching style.

Based on the 2017 M v. osu game, I suspect that the game plan and play calling will serve to break tendencies to a greater extent than the last two games. That's something to watch for on M's first possession and in the 1st half. Start fast and get up by 21 at the half and osu isn't going to come back. Their biggest comebacks are in the 17 to 18 range against defenses less capable than M's.

[Rocky Bleier]

Re: Indiana... Ramsey picked up any first downs he wanted on third downs with his feet. I thought the offense stalling and settling for field goals is a bigger issue, one that will keep them from competing with defenses like Bama, Clemson.

It didn't look like they were desperately trying to score touchdowns. No passes to the WRs, mostly 3 straight run plays. Was Harbaugh hiding something for the next game?

[hack]

Should it get to that point, surely JH doesn't think running between the tackles is feasible on 3rd and 3.

[Tom W]

It didn't look like they were desperately trying to score touchdowns. No passes to the WRs, mostly 3 straight run plays. Was Harbaugh hiding something for the next game?

That's the way I saw it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

We're hopeful that's what it is. I'm not entirely confident it is. I'm skeptical of the idea that teams actually hold back to save plays.

I suppose not running Patterson on the RO at Rutgers was conceivably planned to avoid injury....... or at least Harbaugh didn't feel the game flow and degree of control required running that play where the risk of injury to your QB is increased. He did run the RO and Patterson kept it several times v. IU. I think that is becasue the game flow and degree of control or lack thereof, required it.

That tells me that plays are called based on field position, down and distance, game flow and degree of control of the game as Harbaugh perceives it. I don't think M is holding anything just for osu any more than they introduced new plays or wrinkles to existing plays for other opponents as the field position, down and distance, game flow and degree of control of the game dictated.

Does that mean we won't see new plays? No. There were two new plays v. IU. One of them was Eubanks TD (Scissors). The other was a Down G designed to exploit IU's defense in a poor alignment. Runyan lined up next to JBB on the play side, Onwenu pulled and so did Ruiz along with 2 TE leading the way for Higdon through the C gap on the boundary side. That's about 1500 pounds of large, angry men bowling over Ss and CBs trying to seal the edge. The play went for a first down ...... once. After IU adjusted, when it was run a second time, it was defended well the play only gaining 2y.

The point is that play design and play calling is way more complicated and involved than just pulling new shit out of your ass and running it. Has to be the right package or play against the right defense.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Should it get to that point, surely JH doesn't think running between the tackles is feasible on 3rd and 3.

I'd have to go back and look at running plays in isolation but overall, M has an average 5.7y on third down (2nd best nationally) and a 56% 3rd down conversion rate (4th nationally).

I recall a shit ton of short yardage plays where Mason carries or one of the RBs carries behind him to get the first. So, yeah, I think Harbaugh thinks running between the tackles is feasible on 3rd and 3. In fact, that's where he wants to get to most of the time.

It's worth pointing out AGAIN that Harbaugh's approach is to get to 3rd and short in every series of every possession, possess and move the chains. He wants to drive the field, pounding as much as possible. I suspect he's working off of a play chart that through analytics gives him a best call given a set of variables. The chart is opponent dependent with regard to the defenses they run and their tendencies within them.

It's boring, it doesn't look sexy, big plays are rare because generally they aren't needed when you can drive the field, burn clock and score - FGs are fine as long as the defense is keeping the opponent from scoring. Most of the time Brown does that. None of this strategy leads to blow-outs. It leads to points per game around 30. When opponents are averaging only 12, its a win without style points. What all this does to fans is that it makes them nervous ..... I get nervous but I'm starting to understand and live with it.

[WM Wolverine]

Not sure that strategy works when they play an elite defense and a really good offense...

?????? Sparty had us at a draw till M decided to throw the ball downfield.

[WM Wolverine]

That strategy might work for most every game on the schedule but against teams with similar or better talent, you'll need perfect execution which happens once a season.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Ask talent ....... osu's defense is not elite. While their DL might be good it's not as talented as it has been in the past. There are holes.

I'll be elated if M comes out with some kind of new approach that catches osu off guard and goes up by two or three scores early but my bet is that Harbaugh has evaluated the defense Schiano will put on the field and he'll scheme against it in his standard mode - drive the field. possess, limit osu's possessions.

If that happens, if M can hold osu to around 10-12 possessions, M will win. The closer osu gets to 15 possessions, the closer the point differential will be.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...and the more you post...the more you expose yourself as a buffoon...