THE GAME 17-MICHIGAN vs osu:Last Call for Saving the Season or Another Round of Pain?

[Jeff Buchanan]

If you're a realist, there's no way you can be optimistic about this game. At full strength, coming off a Wisconsin win that looked possible until shit happens like it seems to always be the case with Michigan, a touch of optimism would have been warranted.

Not now.

M's best, although doubtful chance to win given the state of the OL and RBs, would have been if Peters were starting. I can't imagine Peters starting either because he's not cleared or because if he is, why would you risk more imminently predictable thunder sacks of the poor guy. Then, you've got to account for M's best RB probably at something like 80% with an ankle injury, Isaac isn't going to play and Evans is only good as a complement to Higdon. None of them seem to be able to get pass-pro assignments down or when they do, they whiff. The defense is good but it gives up that one or two big plays at critical junctures that this particular team's moral isn't going to withstand.

Note that Speight was never the same after the Iowa sack he took both due to injury but just as much because that fucker had to hurt. Has to get inside your head and in Speight's case I'm almost sure it did. I can see the same shit happening to Brandon Peters. Put O'Korn in there and do the best you can.

Nope. Can't see M winning. It will be a chore with the usual shit that happens to M not happening to even keep it close.

[hack]

If Speight can go, we can win the game. Can and probably should.

[THE_WIZARD_]

If Speight can go, we can win the game. Can and probably should.

bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!

[WM Wolverine]

Speight was good enough last season.

[hack]

Exactly

[Rocky Bleier]

Not the same two teams as last year.

[hack]

Nor the same venue.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Nor the same refs

fuckin' refs

[Jeff Buchanan]

Welp, all the advanced stats are out there for everyone to see the kind of Five Factors advantages osu holds v. M. It's not pretty and that the predictive value of these things increases over the season, we are probably at the point that what they tell us is pretty accurate.

M will lose this game.

The only way M wins this game is if shit happens it happens to osu. i.e., osu gets victimized more than M does by the pitiful quality of BT refereeing, replay goes in favor of M more times than in favor of osu, it rains but only when osu has the ball and is behind by 3 TDs, in case of fumbles, the ball bonces away from the fumbler and into the hands of a Michigan player instead of bouncing right back to the fumbler. You think I'm kidding? Fuck no, I'm not.

Couple things worth mentioning:

osu's offense is very efficient in that they finish drives. Finishing drives means they move the chains. Then they score points. Those numbers have been assembled v. less that elite defenses. M's is such a defense so, that might mean something positive for M.

osu does very well on standard downs. Like most offenses, you get osu's offense into third and long, their efficiency drops off in the face of increasing capacity of M's defense to get off the field on 3rd down. This is the one advanced stat that predicts M success so, defeat 1st down, force 2nd and long and defeat that to force a 3rd and long. Advanced stats leads to the conclusion that osu will win some of these and lose some of them. The team that does the best here is going to have some tactical advantage.

As with Wisconsin, M's likely propensity for a lot of 3 and outs means ufm will simply wait awhile, like into the mid-3rd quarter, until M's D wears down. Pretty simple - ufm does not have to do anything tricky here. Just select the plays you do well at, then wait until you can gain score separation toward the end of the game.

osu has designed formations that advantage themselves v. the things M's defense does. This involves motioning their H receivers out of unbalanced formations. What this does is force LBs (guess who) into single coverage with these guys .....not good. I've seen Brown avoid this by having S's step up to provide coverage on motioning guys and uses LBs to either blitz or force the motion guy back in side. Sometimes it works other times it provides an open spot for the QB to check down to a different receiver, this based on what the Ss do. With osu, it's pick your poison.

The other thing I gather from from reading around is that Dobbins is very good at slipping through cracks in the defense that don't exist. I'm going to extrapolate here that both he and Weber will find some gaping freeways due to Brown's tendencies to get his players to solve problems with aggression. However, ufm now along with OC Kevin Wilson have a habit of making teams pay for that sort of thing. M will pay and give up some long runs to these two. You lose gap discipline and you are toast with osu's offense and the RPO that jtb does really well. While he may not be that great of a passer, he rarely mis-reads the RPO and if he hits it, its usually a chain moving gain.

The key to M keeping this game anywhere near respectable is to pass on standard downs using what has worked for M and that is throwing to the TEs and crossing receivers who could get open in the short to middle zone and over the tops of Ss who may be playing up. From what I've seen the sad part about this is that Peters was better at reading the defense and making these plays work. JOK seems to struggle with it.

There's been scant news on Peters or Speight. Pep Hamilton, I guess in a presser he did today but not yet published, reportedly said Peters remains in the concussion protocol and has not yet been cleared to return to practice and Speight can practice but, as before, has not been cleared for contact.

There are plenty of ways to interpret this and Harbaugh is not going to reveal who is starting until Friday at the earliest and maybe not until game time. I think M will obviously do better with not JOK but he is, IMO, the most likely starter. Maybe we can arrange for the guy that benched him at Houston (now a coach at Purdue)and reportedly talked shit to him at the Purdue game tweet that John is a shitty QB and is about to embarrass himself and M on national TV. O'Korn played well at Purdue. I'd like to see that performance repeat itself but I'm not holding my breath.

OSU 28 - M 17 ...... the game will be tantalizing close at the start of the third quarter giving M fans another opportunity for a dong punch as osu pulls away.

[Rocky Bleier]

If Speight couldn't win last year with that offense, there is no basis to believe that he could and should win win this year's much inferior offense. In addition, he hasn't played since the Purdue game, and he wasn't exactly having a stellar season up to that point.

OSU's defense put tremendous pressure on Lewerke, who has much more escape ability than Speight. Lewerke was coming off of two 400 yd. passing performances and was shut down. Peters was just pummeled by Wisconsin defensive players because our O-line and backs are bad at picking up blitzes, delayed or otherwise. Whoever plays QB for Michigan Saturday will be under a lot of pressure, especially when the run game proves ineffective. The best we can hope for is that whoever he is does not suffer another serious injury.

[maxreturn]

UM will hang with em for two quarters based almost entirely on emotion. 2nd half will get ugly. I see a 17 - 20 point margin of victory for "that team down south".

[Mainevent]

This game will be ugly. Maybe not MSU/Ohio ugly, but not good. It’s supposed to be 50+ degrees around me so I’ll have plenty of other things to do.

[WM Wolverine]

Not much reason to be optimistic other than it's at home.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...iffen I was in AA this weekend...I'd get me a Blimpy Burger and skip the game...

[Tom W]

The only way M wins this game is if shit happens it happens to osu. i.e., osu gets victimized more than M does by the pitiful quality of BT refereeing, replay goes in favor of M more times than in favor of osu, it rains but only when osu has the ball and is behind by 3 TDs, in case of fumbles, the ball bonces away from the fumbler and into the hands of a Michigan player instead of bouncing right back to the fumbler. You think I'm kidding? Fuck no, I'm not.

ohio REALLY deserves for ALL of that shit to happen to them. With interest.

Of course it won't. Only fools expect karma.