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Minnesota is not good so, comparing stats will give you exactly what you thought it would: A prediction that Michigan will win.
Not a sure thing for certain ....... but, I've been a Michigan fan for a long time. From about 1972 or so and until the last two years of the Carr regime, fans were pretty confident of a B10 win every Saturday through The Game. The outcome of osu v. M was always up in the air.
We're about 90% back there, or at least I am. It's somewhat pleasant. I do still think M has two more losses, this weekend, against Minnesota, is probably not one of them.
The Wisconsin game looks more winnable as the season unfolds and some level of identity is emerging within M's offense and the Badger's look beatable having made it through a blitheringly easy schedule. But, it's in Madison and M hasn't won there since 2006. Wow ..... I did not know that until it was pointed out to me. Anyway, that's two Saturdays from now. We'll talk about that after Maryland.....unless we won't because M loses one of the WTF games I predicted M would lose. Oh, wait, they already lost to MSU. Terrible.
The significance of this game is to see if: (1) Brandon Peters is a good QB or just a Freshman who had an outlying good game in relief of JOK v. Rutgers. (2) The run game is as good as it was v. Rutgers. Brian's UFR Offense had the highest grades for the offensive line and RBs that he has charted since he began doing this. Yes, I know, Rutgers and of course, talent has already told us how many yards osu rushed and passed for v. these kittens. But still ........
The run game: There were no IZ or OZ plays v. Rutgers. It was all power. Previously it had been 60/40 power/zone. We're told that the run selection was based on what the Rutgers D was doing which was noting unique or exotic. They stayed in Zone and blitzed only rarely and almost always from the CB spot. Peters appeared to have easy throws, not so much because the play-calls were made that way for him but rather that Rutgers did not play any press-man and were giving a huge amount of space in coverage. The underneath routes were open. Clearly they were trying to prevent the big play (that bend don't break BS) but their run defense was so bad, both in short yardage and in the RZ, that M was getting plenty of yards off the run game alone when it needed it. So, that didn't work out so well for Minnesota.
The Gophers apparently have better LBs. That might lessen M's potential for a big run game or it might provide further evidence that M can not only club Rutgers but also Minnesota. Hopefully Peters remembers who is getting the hand-offs and which way he is supposed to go. Whoops.
Passing: The WX picture is still not entirely clear. There is a < 40% chance of rain after sometime in the evening. NOAA isn't saying yet because they don't really know. Like I've said, I've watched the WX in SE MI for decades and, yes, it is hard to forecast. It is supposed to be dry in the hours leading up to the game.
Regardless, I'm not expecting Peters (or O'Korn if he starts) to come out throwing or he might. That's what's kinda fun about Harbaugh. With Black and Crawford out (Crawford could play) and DPJ and now Nico Collins out there (his red-shirt was burned last week), not sure the staff has a lot of confidence in the Freshman to Freshman passing game. Yikes. Also, remember that Peters v. Rutgers had a throw to Perry on a slant that was a bit late (?hesitated) into double coverage. It should have been an INT and would have been against a better D. Brian remarked maybe this is the reason he wasn't starting as, in practice, he was doing that consistently ..... but then again, if that was a troublesome throw for Peters, why was it called. IOW, things don't sync to well in Brian's take on this throw for my taste
TEs seem solid and, holy shit, the wheel route to Evans appeared v. Rutgers. Suspect that's where the passing action will be seen if there is any. I'd expect Harbaugh to run as long as Minnesota demonstrates an inability to deal with that. There's been some talk of seeing Ambry Thomas not only on STs catching punts (he's supposed to be a S) but also in some sort of jet sweep action or stuff like it on offense. That would be fun.
STs: Nordin's situation is weird. In the first 4 games he was gold. In the last two, he missed an EP and a FG. Someone posted he was injured. No confirmation one way or the other. If the game comes down to that, we found out (1) Peters is still a shaky Frosh that makes bad reads, bad decisions and throws into coverage at an alarming rate and (2) the run game is not as good as it was thought to be after Rutgers.
If we learn Peters is indeed good and the run game performs somewhere near the way it did v. Rutgers, I can see a score of 35 -3 and a possible shut out. If Peters is not able to sustain his level of quarterbacksmanship he displayed v. Rutgers (i.e., turnovers -1 or more) and the run game reverts to what it looked like v. PSU (adding turnovers and producing short fields for the Gophers), I still think M wins this 28 - 17.
Not a sure thing for certain ....... but, I've been a Michigan fan for a long time. From about 1972 or so and until the last two years of the Carr regime, fans were pretty confident of a B10 win every Saturday through The Game. The outcome of osu v. M was always up in the air.
We're about 90% back there, or at least I am. It's somewhat pleasant. I do still think M has two more losses, this weekend, against Minnesota, is probably not one of them.
The Wisconsin game looks more winnable as the season unfolds and some level of identity is emerging within M's offense and the Badger's look beatable having made it through a blitheringly easy schedule. But, it's in Madison and M hasn't won there since 2006. Wow ..... I did not know that until it was pointed out to me. Anyway, that's two Saturdays from now. We'll talk about that after Maryland.....unless we won't because M loses one of the WTF games I predicted M would lose. Oh, wait, they already lost to MSU. Terrible.
The significance of this game is to see if: (1) Brandon Peters is a good QB or just a Freshman who had an outlying good game in relief of JOK v. Rutgers. (2) The run game is as good as it was v. Rutgers. Brian's UFR Offense had the highest grades for the offensive line and RBs that he has charted since he began doing this. Yes, I know, Rutgers and of course, talent has already told us how many yards osu rushed and passed for v. these kittens. But still ........
The run game: There were no IZ or OZ plays v. Rutgers. It was all power. Previously it had been 60/40 power/zone. We're told that the run selection was based on what the Rutgers D was doing which was noting unique or exotic. They stayed in Zone and blitzed only rarely and almost always from the CB spot. Peters appeared to have easy throws, not so much because the play-calls were made that way for him but rather that Rutgers did not play any press-man and were giving a huge amount of space in coverage. The underneath routes were open. Clearly they were trying to prevent the big play (that bend don't break BS) but their run defense was so bad, both in short yardage and in the RZ, that M was getting plenty of yards off the run game alone when it needed it. So, that didn't work out so well for Minnesota.
The Gophers apparently have better LBs. That might lessen M's potential for a big run game or it might provide further evidence that M can not only club Rutgers but also Minnesota. Hopefully Peters remembers who is getting the hand-offs and which way he is supposed to go. Whoops.
Passing: The WX picture is still not entirely clear. There is a < 40% chance of rain after sometime in the evening. NOAA isn't saying yet because they don't really know. Like I've said, I've watched the WX in SE MI for decades and, yes, it is hard to forecast. It is supposed to be dry in the hours leading up to the game.
Regardless, I'm not expecting Peters (or O'Korn if he starts) to come out throwing or he might. That's what's kinda fun about Harbaugh. With Black and Crawford out (Crawford could play) and DPJ and now Nico Collins out there (his red-shirt was burned last week), not sure the staff has a lot of confidence in the Freshman to Freshman passing game. Yikes. Also, remember that Peters v. Rutgers had a throw to Perry on a slant that was a bit late (?hesitated) into double coverage. It should have been an INT and would have been against a better D. Brian remarked maybe this is the reason he wasn't starting as, in practice, he was doing that consistently ..... but then again, if that was a troublesome throw for Peters, why was it called. IOW, things don't sync to well in Brian's take on this throw for my taste
TEs seem solid and, holy shit, the wheel route to Evans appeared v. Rutgers. Suspect that's where the passing action will be seen if there is any. I'd expect Harbaugh to run as long as Minnesota demonstrates an inability to deal with that. There's been some talk of seeing Ambry Thomas not only on STs catching punts (he's supposed to be a S) but also in some sort of jet sweep action or stuff like it on offense. That would be fun.
STs: Nordin's situation is weird. In the first 4 games he was gold. In the last two, he missed an EP and a FG. Someone posted he was injured. No confirmation one way or the other. If the game comes down to that, we found out (1) Peters is still a shaky Frosh that makes bad reads, bad decisions and throws into coverage at an alarming rate and (2) the run game is not as good as it was thought to be after Rutgers.
If we learn Peters is indeed good and the run game performs somewhere near the way it did v. Rutgers, I can see a score of 35 -3 and a possible shut out. If Peters is not able to sustain his level of quarterbacksmanship he displayed v. Rutgers (i.e., turnovers -1 or more) and the run game reverts to what it looked like v. PSU (adding turnovers and producing short fields for the Gophers), I still think M wins this 28 - 17.
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