Minnesota @ Michigan, Saturday 11/4, 7:30p, FOX, Stream FoxGo

[Jeff Buchanan]

We'll end up 8-4. Are any of our remaining games single digit spreads? They shouldn't be.

I don't think fancy stats - and by this I mean S&P+ and FEI - are going to be changed at all by the Rutgers win and, I agree, they shouldn't.

Before Rutgers (and after the beat down at HV) these were the win percentages and spreads.

v. Minnesota: Spread is - 15.5, 84.1% chance of winning.

v. Maryland: Spread is - 14.5, 82.5% chance of winning.

v. Wisconsin: Spread is + 7.0, 68% chance of loosing.

v. osu: Spread is +9.3, 78% chance of loosing.

So, on paper/by the numbers the 8-4 prediction is still pretty solid.

While I do think the improved run game and Peters at QB - apparently, anyway and not at all statistically significant, more in the feelings ball category - probably makes us feel better about 9-3 or 10-2, the reality is that's a stretch.

I personally think our chances have improved v. Wisconsin and I'd say the possibility of a split between the last two games, taking M to 9-3 has increased. Given osu's remarkable performance v. PSU, I'd say our chances of beating osu have diminished. JMO. The wild card in Madison is Freshman QB Peters in his first road game in a difficult to play in and very loud environment.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Wisconsin can be beat...ya gotta rattle Horny...make it a slobberknocker...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Wisconsin can be beat...ya gotta rattle Horny...make it a slobberknocker...

What I'd really like is to light up their defense early and make them play from behind by a couple of scores. The problem with that approach is that even under the best of circumstances when JH takes a team on the road he starts conservatively - too conservatively for my tastes - and then sits on small leads - again, too small for my tastes.

Horny is going to be fleeing for his life and that I have no doubt about. The offenses that Don Brown has lived dangerously with are the ones where he should be playing zone but insists on playing press-man and counting on a terrifying DL push up front to cover the weaknesses he has to deal with at LB and S. If he doesn't get that, e.g., PSU, he's gonna get torched. There was more to that at PSU but still ......

Wisconsin is a perfect fit for Brown's D. Harbaugh will try to pound them with Peters in there (not a bad approach given that) but that's going to make the game a rock fight and you never like those in a hostile environment on the road.

[Hannibal]

Is Tarik Black supposed to be back this year? When he got injured I thought it was "6-8 weeks".

[Jeff Buchanan]

Is Tarik Black supposed to be back this year? When he got injured I thought it was "6-8 weeks".

No clarity on that question ......

After the injury I tried to put together some of the possibilities regarding the injury and how a particular type of foot injury might get fixed and how long the rehab would take.

Best case for a non-displaced, mid-shaft, 5th Metatarsal fracture would be about 8w.

An intra-articular fracture repair (Involves a fracture of the distal joints of any of the foot bones) is a more complex surgery and the surgeon is going to want more healing time before weight bearing - best guess 12w.

A fracture that involves any of the bones of the mid-foot is a big deal. If that's what happened, he won't be back this season.

JH has said nothing about his activity level/rehab. He should be back doing light work-outs, not involving pushing off with the affected foot if he's got the first kind of fracture above. Wisconsin would be a reasonable return.

Too hard to speculate about option two. Maybe someone will ask something other than a softball question on Black soon.

[Hannibal]

Not hearing any news about it is pretty ominous. There's not a lot of time left for him to come back for a winnable game.

[Cody_Russell]

Minnesota won’t have a passing game vs M’s D. I’ve seen Demry Croft play a few times ... Croft can move around a bit ... that’s about it.

As mentioned a week ago, M is well on their way to 8-2 and a big game at Wisconsin.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Don't underestimate the power of Row The Boat...

[WM Wolverine]

Black should be back by bowl game, unlikely to make it back for Wisconsin/OSU...

Badgers can be beat, they don't impress me (I don't think they are a top 10 team) and I think we match up well vs them. Probably only game I'd consider taking us to cover, probably take the under too. Not expecting to beat them in Camp Randall but we have the talent to.

[Hannibal]

I wonder what the crowd will be like for this one. I'm guessing relatively sparse and unenthusiastic. Weather forecast is 50 or so around gametime with an 80% chance of rain. An ideal outcome involves Michigan building a lead and then Harbaugh sitting on it for the final 20 minutes, which will send fans to the exits in droves.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Probably ...... I'm in AA this weekend and am attending. I'm following weather reports closely. I hate the cold. I especially hate it when it is wet and cold.

Here's what I'm gathering from NOAA:

There's actually a Canadian high pressure ridge edging north to south from the NW. The surface progs show that there is quite a bit of moisture that is wedging itself under the high pressure ridge. This is going to make it become a stationary front that will hang S of Toledo.

It's supposed to be 60 degrees tomorrow (its hovering in the upper 30s today). As the front passes, temperatures drop back into the mid to upper 30s. The rain, although it is going to be light and misty and if it comes at all, is possible but the winds will be light and this isn't the monsoon of the MSU game.

Besides, this is SE Michigan, the lake makes this a very difficult place to forecast. It could be clear or cloudy rain or snow Saturday night. I've learned to look out the window sometime before kick-off to see what the weather is going to like.

[hack]

Shush about the "surface progs". Talent gets upset.

[froot loops]

They can't stop the toss sweep.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Minnesota? Yep, LB with poor sideline to sideline speed and they play zone so Ss are a step back.

M really has the blocking going on this - at least they had them going against Rutgers.

[WM Wolverine]

We'll see how much the improvement was an illusion by playing Rutgers or was real on Saturday.