Michigan @ PSU, 10/21/17, 7:30p Eastern, ABC/Stream Watch ESPN

[Jeff Buchanan]

........M's defense holding opponents to 43% fewer yards than their average. Huge number.

I just did a little math gymnastics:

PSU 2017 avg. points per play = 0.543

PSU 2017 avg. yards per game = 452

PSU 2017 avg. Plays per game = 73

M's predicted yards allowed v. PSU = 259 (43% of total)

452/259 as 73/X, X= 41.9 plays

41.9 X 0.543 = 22.75 points will be scored v. M by this formula*

*I don't think PSU will be held to 42 plays; possible but not likely.
Also worth noting number of points scored by PSU v. M at 22.75 is pretty close to talent's, gut feeling of 20. Not ready yet to predict a score but most of the math + observables are pointing to 20 - 23 points for PSU.

I don't think M's offense, as it currently stands, can deliver 23+points. I think it can deliver 16-17 points. Therefore, M's D and/or STs has to deliver the rest (6-7)

[THE_WIZARD_]

Dumb

[Detroit Dan]

Based upon Harbaugh to date at Michigan, Peters will not play meaningful minutes this year. Harbaugh will go the full Hoke in playing crappy QBs and not changing no matter how bad they are, for reasons that are beneath him to explain. This is what got Hoke fired. Harbaugh is no better to date.

God, I hope this post of mine is nonsense.

[hack]

I see optimism there -- Hoke DID change QBs, and it didn't work.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HOKE!!!

[THE_WIZARD_]

.....errrr.......HARBAUGH!!!

:::sorry:::

[WingsFan]

This is what got Hoke fired. Harbaugh is no better to date.

I must say Dan you have done a 360 in 2 weeks, took me about 10 months. It is possible we can beat Penn State for the reason posted that we really don't know how good they really are. And our defense could put points on the board- plus the #2 team is always good for upsets it seems.

[whodean]

Unfortunately O'Korn performing on a Devin Gardner level.

[froot loops]

Detroit Dan is actually doing a 180, a 360 is what Harbaugh does off the diving board in a his khakis.

[WingsFan]

heh

[Jeff Buchanan]

So, here comes the Fancy Stats. These were published late last night and I reviewed them this morning. Here's the Cliff Notes:

Michigan holds few advantages in any of Connelley's metrics. At face, this looks like a bad match-up for M. It does not take analytics to know this. By the numbers, Advanced Stats predict a 10.1 margin of victory for PSU with M having only a 28% chance of a win.

How does M pull off a win then:

First, we know that PSU has made it's money this year with big plays, most of them coming from McSorley's arm although Barkely's legs are not far behind. If M hopes to win this game, it cannot allow big plays.

No turnovers. This sounds obvious. The reason for it is a bit more subtle and interesting. PSU has a significant advantage in the field position metric. The reason for that is that they get a lot of turnovers. M needs a low scoring rock fight to have a chance in this game. DO NOT give PSU short fields with turnovers.

Michigan holds an advantage in three of the metrics measuring the rush offense. In looking over the UFR for IU, Michigan appeared to rush well .... you don't rush for 271 yards without offensive line play being good. However, it wasn't that great per Brian's eyeball. Two things: (1) there were about as many derfs by the OL as there were well executed blocks in the run game. (2) The well executed plays, though, went for big chunks and a lot of this had to do with Higdon's vision. He hit small holes and made great cuts. Bottom line is that there was improvement but it's not Stanford class yet (The SB Nation article on their run game and RB Love pertains). M is not there yet but is moving in the right direction.

Run the ball, run it well, get some big plays. Get points ..... FG's may be enough if the coaches can manage the game as below.

The coaches need to plan for and manage this game with the purpose being to keep it low scoring. You do that by holding on to the ball and shortening the game. Most observers think the M D is capable of producing enough 3 and outs that PSU is punting the ball to Michigan a lot ...... baring big plays, of course, which is another reason M needs to prevent these from happening.

One other thing worth mentioning. While IU's D was good it's just OK compared to PSU's. Brian noticed that some of M's rushing success was achieved because most of the time, IU's LBs were not too aggressive. What this allowed was M's OL/TEs getting to the second level. This will be an interesting thing to watch for on PSU's D. The risk of deploying really aggressive LB play to stop the run is running your D too far up field and out of the play. The end results for the offense are obvious - a big run play might ensue.

I'd be less inclined to do this as a defense, if the vacated short field by the LBs could be exploited with screens. Those plays were there v. IU when they did have their LBs play aggressively, none of them were executed well and it wasn't just on O'Korn. Either the receivers dropped balls or the blockers didn't set up the short field correctly and after a catch the receiver was tackled immediately. M has to be able to do that to extend a series and hold the ball. Beyond rushing well, this part of the passing game has to work.

Over/Under less than 40 - M could win something like 20 - 17, maybe 16 - 13.

Over - 40 M loses and probably by a lot.

[WingsFan]

More fuzzy math - Michigan is 1-16 in its last 17 games as a dog. Only win was in 3OT at Northwestern in 2013 (the Dileo Slide FG).

[Hannibal]

No shit. I wasn't aware of that. Pretty scary.

[hack]

That's the rivalry games there. What an awful period it's been.

[Jeff Buchanan]

More fuzzy math - Michigan is 1-16 in its last 17 games as a dog. Only win was in 3OT at Northwestern in 2013 (the Dileo Slide FG).

Yeah, I didn't know that either.

My sense that M will win this game is consistent with the probability (28%). IOW, it's going to take the football gods favoring Michigan and the normally shitty BT refereeing being equally shitty for both teams or not being a factor for at all.