Michigan @ PSU, 10/21/17, 7:30p Eastern, ABC/Stream Watch ESPN

[THE_WIZARD_]

I am a member of the Failing Media. Which means when I make fart noises, I actually get paid for it.

...Knights of Columbus...that hurt...

[hack]

Is McCaffrey really THAT raw? What qualifies as raw is different three months ago, when Speight was healthy and JOK hadn't proved unable. You'd have to be pretty damn raw to still be too raw to try at this point.

Malzone is still on the roster. Can't be this awful. I think this underscores how much we don't know. Purely raw speculation here, but it might be that JH is extreme in his use of playing time as punishment and reward. If Kareem Walker has finally worked his way out of the doghouse, and is half as good as he looked on that one carry, he deserves some more. Maybe Peters is in that same boat? ``Not authoritative in the huddle" is no reason to forego a passing threat heading for the rest of the season. Seems like there's something else we aren't gonna know about.

[Jeff Buchanan]

So, you're right about changing things up a bit and, like Danonio, JH is good at that.


I was crying out for that kind of thing last year, when we were running Pepcat for a TFL for the tenth time in a row. I think eventually JH will have a team where he's able to do this, but the evidence isn't there to support that he does now.

The shovel pass thing for JH, IMO, is an outlier to what he seems to like to do. I do think he's breaking out some trickeration because the efficiency of the offense doing what he likes to do has been poop.

The hard part is that that stuff he wants to do, and it does appears like it IS improving game to game, is almost impossible to discern live unless you're looking at the defense's first step at the snap and simultaneously looking at M's OL AND, you know what you're looking for.

I think Brian, in his UFRs, does a good job at picking out the subtleties of JH's run game (counters and constraints). Even Brian admits he can't always see the details of why a run play appeared to break big.

I do think, on balance, Harbaughffense is all about getting an offensive rhythm by killing it at the LOS; it's less about being tricky and the shovel pass was that. It's about beating the shit out of the guy across the LOS from you and making life difficult for the guys at the 2nd level/backside pursuit. Football, "winning with character but also with cruelty."

Remembering JH's Stanford days, where that quote was first heard, the Cardinal is doing that this season. This link just popped up at mgoblog and it's relevant to my comments. Worth reading and watching.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/17/16485234/bryce-love-stanford-football-2017

[WM Wolverine]

Yes, McCaffrey wasn't a polished product in high school and very much expected to redshirt, we knew this. He was a basketball player too and he'd be further along in development if he was a 12 month quarterback...

If you can't hear the play call, that's going to cause major issues; delay of game, receivers running the wrong routes and players not on the same page. Hopefully those issues have been improved.

[hack]

Sure. He's not gonna have Drevno calling halfback passes on second and goal in the first quarter like Hoke let Borges do. But I don't know that the shovel pass was that tricky. It's a bit high risk because the ball flies in the air for a few feet, it's still a play that needs to be blocked properly. I think the point is, though, that, for now, until he has the players he needs, he's going to have to use less of what he wants to use and more of what he'd rather have the luxury not to use. We're still in the period of the coaching transition where some smoke and mirrors are needed. It shouldn't be that way in Year 3, but it apparently is.

[hack]

Yes, McCaffrey wasn't a polished product in high school and very much expected to redshirt, we knew this. He was a basketball player too and he'd be further along in development if he was a 12 month quarterback...

If you can't hear the play call, that's going to cause major issues; delay of game, receivers running the wrong routes and players not on the same page. Hopefully those issues have been improved.

We knew it when Speight was healthy and O'Korn not a proven passing-game disaster and Peters still considered a competitor for the starting job. Things are obviously different now.

Peters isn't dumb as a rock. He probably understands how to shout. I don't think it's credible that this is about his inability to raise his voice. There's something else going on.

[WM Wolverine]

If they aren't ready, they aren't ready. Doesn't matter how badly fans want them to play, you play who gives you the best chance to win..

Harbaugh spoke about this issue the week of the Florida game, don't see any reason to doubt him. We know Harbaugh usually prefers experience if it's close..

Given the play calling in the second half versus Indiana, I think it's a decent bet Harbaugh has a quick hook with JOK if he continues to struggle.

[hack]

I'll say it once more -- that was then; this is now. The week of the Florida game we had a healthy Speight and JOK wasn't proven to be at the is-what-he-is stage and Peters was actually considered a possible starter. THINGS ARE DIFFERENT NOW.

I think it's very possible we see two QBs play against Rutgers. If we see another QB play against PSU, it'll be once the game is out of hand. IMO the question is who that other QB is going to be. Or if it'll be multiple ones.

It also wouldn't surprise me if we went with JOK the rest of the way and never pass more than 15-20 times and never get more than 100 passing yards. Harbaugh stuck with that damn Pepcat long after it was obviously useless.

[Hannibal]

It's hard to see how a non walk-on couldn't be ready enough to average more than 2.9 ypa.

Tin foil hat incoming...

The Daily and Brian Cook both had an editorial calling for Brandon Peters this week. Could it be that their insiders have tipped them off that it's coming so they are safe calling for it now? It's rare for Brian Cook and it's really rare for a student newspaper anywhere to call for a QB change.

[hack]

Brian wrote a specific piece to say that? Where? I see that he's advocated for it in the blog.

It's hard to see how a non walk-on couldn't be ready enough to average more than 2.9 ypa.


Agreed. I don't care how raw McCaffrey is -- if you think so little of Peters then you'd have to be worried about next year. Unless you think Speight can come back healthy and have a decent senior season.

[Hannibal]

I was counting his game column (titled "Game Over, Insert Freshman to Continue").

[Jeff Buchanan]

........ Could it be that their insiders have tipped them off that it's coming so they are safe calling for it now? It's rare for Brian Cook and it's really rare for a student newspaper anywhere to call for a QB change.

I like your hat.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hardly worth speculating at this point. But ........ feelings ball has it's place.

I think that there is enough smoke over the last 6 months and since spring camp to indicate it's probably not Peter's skill levels that are holding him back. I'm very skeptical of comments indicating he lacks leadership, can't be heard making play calls, was disinterested about improving his craft while in Rome, blah, blah, blah.

That's mostly because I'm not hearing this from people I trust. These aren't insiders but those that I trust would be the ones to have confirmation of this kind of stuff and, as far as I know, it's nothing more than idle talk.

Anyway, it just makes no sense that Peters hasn't been getting practice reps because of any of the aforementioned stuff. I think he did get one, maybe two live game snaps at the end of an OOC game (AF?). After Speight went down, it makes NO SENSE whatsoever that he's not getting reps with the ones and someone else is running the scout team (McCaffrey?).

So, IMO, the staff has seen him and he's now #2 behind O'Korn. There is no way in hell Harbaugh is going to say anything that might suggest he's going to start over O'Korn Saturday. Frankly, I don't think there is even a 0.990% chance that happens.

I do think that since Speight's injury, he's getting plenty of reps and O'Korn and Peters both want to play badly and I suspect there's good competition. My sense is that one or two bad series by O'Korn in HV where he screws up his reads or throws a pic and he's done. At that point there is no question about who is coming in.

[whodean]

Michigan's defense needs to continue its defensive dominance

https://michigan.247sports.com/ContentGallery/Projecting-Michigan-vs-Penn-State-statistically-109075915/2

It's no secret that Michigan has been dominant defensively this season, ranking first in total defense, allowing an average of 223.8 yards per game. According to what the defense has done thus far in 2017, offenses that the Wolverines have faced have averaged 185 total yards less than their average, meaning that the Michigan defense is allowing offenses to accumulate only 43.3% of what they produce in a usual game.

Avg. Total Offense (-UM) Against UM Diff. Pct. less vs. UM
Florida 382 192 -190 50%
Cincinnati 355 200 -155 44%
Air Force 481 232 -249 52%
Purdue 407 189 -218 54%
MSU 417 252 -165 40%
Indiana 409 278 -131 32%
Totals by difference/percentage -185 43.3%
Penn State has the nation's 33rd best total offense, averaging 456.2 yards per game. If Michigan keeps the Nittany Lions at the average percentage below what teams that have faced the Wolverines have fared, expect Penn State to get about 259 yards of total offense.

M's defense holding opponents to 43% fewer yards than their average. Huge number.

[hack]

OK, Hanni -- that's reasonable. The headline is pretty clear, you're right.

The thing about Peters is all the smoke has a common thread. If it was leadership one day and making reads the next and accuracy on another, that's one thing. But each and every little bit of rumor, accurate or not, points precisely to intangibles. So I'm not gonna rule it out. That sort of stuff has been rumored before about players and turned out to be true.