Michigan @ PSU, 10/21/17, 7:30p Eastern, ABC/Stream Watch ESPN

[froot loops]

Jeff - it doesn't have to be a surprise offense, you are just emphasizing the quarterback runs that you know JOK can do.

One other thing, Don Brown is going to want to go against type and blitz a little less. To borrow a phrase from legendary Spartan Wayne Fontes, "Beeeeeend but don't break." Make that team earn a TD with a long drive. You'll fluster that team trying to light you up in front of 100,000 poseurs in white. He is still going to blitz but let your DL do its job.

Finally, Manball, go out and be physical with this team.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...the only good ending to a PSU-M battle...is for the Goodrich blimp to land on the field in the middle of the fourth quarter...

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, Fair ........

I thought about the osu pass game when I made the post you are referring to as it is integral to osu's offense and, as you note, it wasn't great. Did it contribute to run effectiveness? Probably. M had NO such contribution from O'Korn and still put up 271. That says something to me.

My thinking was that since M has NO passing game, I could just eliminate osu's in my comparative analysis. But I see the potential weakness there.

IU's rush defense is ranked #77, 172, 4.05. PSU's defense is ranked #24, 116.7, 3.57. The average among 130 FBS teams is 126ypg (the mean would have been more useful to compare but that's too hard to calculate manually).

PSU is better at rush D than IU but not staggeringly so.

PSU isn't going to do anything different on defense than every opponent that M has faced this season, "load up." My view is that the IU game was the first game where M ran effectively v. that circumstance. i.e./ the offense developed an identity and at least two plays that have a good success rate.

I would agree, on a personnel match-up basis, PSU's LBs and Ss are probably better than IU's and therefor a less favorable circumstance for M. Right now, I don't know that with any certainty. I'll look at it.

I'm also of the opinion that part of the run effectiveness v. IU was better execution by M's OL. Another part (equally hard to quantify) was JH's use of counters that cause defenses to misread keys - the more aggressive the defensive play call against these kinds of plays the greater the success rate is for M.

The third part is Higdon's vision. On his first big TD run, he made a fantastic cut and hit the planned hole (of probably 2 or 3 as this was an IZ play) at top speed. His second TD run in OT he made that play because he saw what was happening inside (the plan and I think this was power) and bounced outside untouched because IU's D had committed to the power play.

On your gut feeling ....... I think this depends on how explosive PSU can be. I'm going to look at their history of that in Connelly's Five Factors (S&P+). A quantitatively less explosive offense, historically, or one mitigated by a strong pass rush combined with excellent run defense in the current context, would argue that M can hold PSU under 20. I'll be looking in to that.

[hack]

So few options to move the ball downfield and yet in two games they have not at all sought to use JOK's legs. Maybe with good reason. Dunno.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[maxreturn]

11 points is absurd

I would agree if the offense weren't this bad.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot, I get what you're saying. You'll recall, JH called a shovel pass - something not shown before - that was perfectly executed and the ensuing hole was huge. If O'Korn takes the snap before the clock clicks to zero, that play probably produces a TD at best, a big gainer at worst.

Harbaugh was demonstrably livid on the sideline when that play busted. So, you're right about changing things up a bit and, like Danonio, JH is good at that.

On your defense/Don Brown comments ...... while M's D appears at first glance to be blitz heavy, it depends on down and distance, trends, what's working and what isn't. This may be M's most disciplined D I've ever seen at M. They don't get gashed much, they don't give up big pass plays. That kind of stuff happens when the D is purposely leaving big empty spots on the field (via blitz calls) or blows pass coverage.

From appearances, this D seems to communicate really well so, if you're making a high risk blitz, the spot on the field being vacated and the place where a QB is looking to throw the ball when he sees this coming is going to be surprisingly covered by another guy. That's what I mean by, appears to be good communication.

Bottom line, I think the identify of this M defense is clear. I don't think Brown will do much different that he usually does and he's not a sort of planned bend don't break guy. He is an in your face guy on every play sort and he's got his players understanding how to best do that without leaving spots on the field open. As well, the back-end has been superbly coached; what amounted to shutting down the best receiver in the BT, Simmie Cobbs, is proof of that. So, Brown can be pretty aggressive.

[hack]

So, you're right about changing things up a bit and, like Danonio, JH is good at that.


I was crying out for that kind of thing last year, when we were running Pepcat for a TFL for the tenth time in a row. I think eventually JH will have a team where he's able to do this, but the evidence isn't there to support that he does now.

[iam416]

On your gut feeling ....... I think this depends on how explosive PSU can be.

I'm also going on what M has done under Don Brown against good offenses. Or, hell, the last two weeks. The last two games they've played average offenses, throttled them for large portions of the game, but still gave up a couple drives (Sparty and a nice drive in the 2nd Q that should have resulted in points but for a wide open drop).

Now, Penn State does have an offense that can move the ball. And last year at home against OSU, they were completely shut down but for 2 drives that were entirely against the run of play.

Anyway, my feelings are Penn State scores about 20 and M gets about 10.

I thought about the osu pass game when I made the post you are referring to as it is integral to osu's offense and, as you note, it wasn't great. Did it contribute to run effectiveness? Probably.

As an aside, IU spent most of the game daring OSU to pass. They were finally cut to ribbons in the 2nd half, but they certainly came out focused on stopping the running game. Also, it's PSU's DL (IMO) that is considerably better than IU's. IU has, I think, some good LBs. Or maybe Scales just colors my opinion.

[hack]

Very reasonable to expect that the defense is going to fail on at least one drive. It happens.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...kinda like your posts...

[WM Wolverine]

John O'Korn is what he is, not good. M's problem isn't JOK but that they don't have someone better...

Harbaugh's issue with Peters is leadership, doesn't have a loud voice calling plays. Probably confidence issues... He can't really be worse than what we've seen from JOK though I highly doubt we give Peters his first start in Happy Valley...

Unless we see a very different JOK Saturday, I think Peters is pretty likely to at least play versus Rutgers.

[hack]

What does it say about McCaffrey already? Can they really be that dedicated to the redshirt? If Peters is so awful...

[hack]

...kinda like your posts...

I am a member of the Failing Media. Which means when I make fart noises, I actually get paid for it.

[WM Wolverine]

True freshman, I don't think it says anything about McCaffrey we didn't know. We knew he wasn't a polished product and he needed his redshirt season...

I don't think it says anything about Peters either, it will be worrisome if JOK continues to struggle and we don't see Peters given an opportunity.