MSU @ Michigan 10/7/17, 7:30 ET. ABC/ESPN/ESPNGo

[Jeff Buchanan]

On the starting QB thing .........

There was some speculation over comments made by someone who I can't remember and in an mgoblog post that I can't find that imply JOK is going to start v. MSU. Anyway, they were comments made about how the staff was working to get the plays JOK does well into practice or some such verbiage.

The thought was that if this is accurate then Speight isn't going to be healed, O'Korn is going to get all the practice reps and is therefore going to start v. MSU.

Since there will be endless speculation about this over the next 6d, I thought I just add mine.

[The Oracle]

I haven't heard 1 person anywhere that thinks Speight will play this week. Is that really a huge point of speculation over there?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I haven't heard 1 person anywhere that thinks Speight will play this week. Is that really a huge point of speculation over there?

I'm seeing some on mgoboards from posters that are probably living in their parents's basements but not from anyone that I will take the time to consider what they are saying.

My view is that there is 99% chance that O'Korn will start.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is an observant post made by a reliable poster made after the MSU win over Iowa. It's pretty accurate with regards to Ferentz's style.

The thing that strikes me is that we are seeing some of this same stuff out of Harbaugh esp. as it pertains to running Isaac, Evans, et. al, into the brick walls that every defense M has faced builds. Sets also appear to predict the play-call more than they should although we have seen some counters and constraints ...... but those didn't appear to work well until O'Korn went under center.

I think a good case can be made that the coaching staff didn't optimize the offense based on observable (from a fan perspective at least) strengths and weakness and instead used the worn out mantra of we will out execute you ..... definitely apples to Ferentz and a Carr weakness to the end.

Speight may not have the quickest feet or release, the most accurate throws or the ability to make the right check/downs and reads but, my sense is that he could have replicated the game plan success that the coaches sort of invented on the fly for O'Korn v. Purdue. JMO.

Iowa isn't great, nor are they bad. They're just Iowa- 3-0 or 2-1 out of conference and 5-4 or 6-3 in conference for a competent but not scary 8-4 team. They will play out of their minds once or twice a season at home at night, and lay one or two eggs on the road. Every 4-5 years the schedule/roster stars will align and they'll go 11-1.

Kirk Ferentz just strikes me as a sound but incredibly stubborn coach. Iowa is sitting in cover 2 with LBs dropping in shallow zones and rushing 4- MSU knows they will do this from the start and gets two fairly easy early TDs. Iowa also set 3-4 possessions on fire starting from inside their 10 and playing very conservatively.

I just don't get why teams play to the MSU D's strength- you can't just run inside/outside zone with 8 guys in the box and a 9th frequently moving down late. MSU showed a cover 1 or cover 0 multiple times and Iowa didn't audible into any slants or posts to take advantage. You have to throw the ball against MSU - I would think everyone knows this by now.

[Jeff Buchanan]

ESPN's Team Efficiency Rankings have been published. You can go to the site to see the methodology; it's nothing more than a different way to compute a team's relative competitiveness.

In the Top 25, there are 5 BT teams (M is 22, overall rating of 73.8 ), 3 B12, 2 SEC, 1 PAC12, 1 ACC, UCF and ND.

MSU is #53 with an overall rating of 57.5.

Wisky, PSU and osu are all ranked above M.

If you're using this methodology to predict a spread for the M/MSU game, M would be favored by the difference between the two overall ratings or 16.3 Points. The betting line will show up later this afternoon.

Needless to say, M is, as of now, the dog v. PSU, Wisconsin and osu by this methodology.

[WingsFan]

Line is -13 Sparty has covered the spread in last nine games against Michigan.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Line is -13 Sparty has covered the spread in last nine games against Michigan.

Down from 21 when a line first appeared and was reported by the Freep.

It's a solid line. In my best case M with O'Korn wins 31-17 (14 points). In my worst case with Speight, M wins 24-17. So, yeah, M wins by between one and two scores.

I guess I should add another case since it's about 99% sure JOK will start: His Purdue performance is an outlier; O'Korn is Indiana O'Korn, turns the ball over X2 and MSU wins it 27 -24.

[whodean]

I think it will be a lower scoring game than that.

Whats the over/under? I'd probably bet on the under.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....Whats the over/under? I'd probably bet on the under.

Around 56. Predicted score: 33.7 - 22-5.

Here's one for you, NW is only a 14 point dog at Happy Valley. That's a really weird spread. The books can't really be saying fNW is just a 1 point worse dog in Happy Valley than MSU is @ M.

All other things being equal, and they're not, fNW's O and D are about the same as M's in terms of chalking up a win next weekend.

[The Oracle]

Where have you seen 56? That'd be surprising.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Where have you seen 56? That'd be surprising.

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/computer-picks

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is pretty good if you're so inclined (MSU offense every snap). Here's my hot takes:

If Lewerke sets up the pocket or has free run to the flat, he's good. I did't see any glaring mistakes from him at all.

The problem is that Iowa sucked on defense (and I assume offense) in this game. They did not present a credible pass rush (they did defend the run well) giving Lewerke too many opportunities to connect with either Felton Davis or a TE.

I might have detected a couple run blitzes but Iowa played a lot of 2-hi zone defense. MSU pretty much moved the ball well through the air with Iowa deciding to defend LJ Scott (that worked) but in the process seeded the passing game which Lewerke executed well. Classic Ferentz ball - you will not beat us running. Never mind Kirk seemed to forget there are two parts to a CFB offense.

There might have been two Dantonio designed tricekeration plays. I have no doubt whatsoever that he has several of those in the bag to use v. Don Brown that aren't on tape anywhere.

Iowa is not good.

MSU is better than I think any of us thought.

I would like to see MSU's defense every snap. I'll keep an eye out.

https://goo.gl/TuUftN

[froot loops]

The signs are all there that MSU is good, but maybe one year away. Everyone is a little too young.

[The Oracle]

Samesies

[WM Wolverine]

M is younger...

56 is way too many for these offenses/defenses... M should keep Sparty in the teens with the caveat the offense gives the ball away. I don't see M scoring much more, 24-17...