MSU @ Michigan 10/7/17, 7:30 ET. ABC/ESPN/ESPNGo

[Jeff Buchanan]

Lets move this discussion to the College Football Broadcast Information/Schedule - TV, Streams, Tech Questions.

I posted a comment so it's up on the top of unstuck threads.

[WingsFan]

I got AT&T U-verse in my new house, so far I like it. I have SEC, Pac 12, Big 10, and a few other channels. Still have Direct TV in the other house, my in laws are staying there for a while - their house was destroyed in the FL hurricane.

[Tom W]

WTF does this have to do with kicking Sparty's ass in prime time?

Just checking.

[WingsFan]

Early 17.5

That is high

[Hannibal]

LMAO wow.

We're laying 17.5 points?

Take 'em. Easiest money you will ever make -- well, since last year's game.

[Jeff Buchanan]

28-10 M? That's doable and beats the spread. It's also a score consistent with how M has been playing overall.

[Hannibal]

23-17 is my prediction. I think that we'll win but it will be another ass-puckering ugly affair.

It's time to fully break out Chris Evans for this one.

[froot loops]

I think MSU is much better than Buchanan gives them credit for, but they will have to take care of the ball unlike that turnover disaster against ND.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think MSU is much better than Buchanan gives them credit for, but they will have to take care of the ball unlike that turnover disaster against ND.

Well, I haven't really given a detailed assessment of MSU. At this point I don't know enough to do so. Generally and as I said up-thread, I think both M and MSU have exploitable weakness. MSU just has more of them than M does.

I also think the spread is supportable by S&P+, for now. By game time, I bet it will be down around 13.5, maybe as low as 9.5 as the books play their games.

BTW, I think Mark Dantonio is a great CFB coach. If you want a coach who is going to be able to get the most out of a middling appearing team, against Michigan, in Ann Arbor, it's going to be him.

Just hope Dantonio doesn't do the chair throwing thing Brohm did for his boys in the locker room before Purdue faced M. That was not a good move; cost him .... he did a good job of eating humble pie in his post game though. Now, he has to deal with dirty opponent locker rooms in Ross-Ade. Heh.

Danotnio would NEVER eat humble pie after a loss and I suspect he's snickering over Harbaugh's Purdue locker room complaints he so vocally aired on Monday.

[froot loops]

I can guarantee you that you won't witness some chair throwing nonsense.

[whodean]

Dantonio only throws his chairs in private.

[hack]

Sets them on fire first.

[Jeff Buchanan]

While Iowa's offense is not explosive at all, Sparty held them to just over 200y total offense. The Sparty D is probably pretty good and will look that way v. M's OL.

Lewerke is dangerous when he's not kept in the pocket ...... too bad that so far, MSU's offense is Lewerke to Felton Davis and Lewerke scambling for first downs. Lewerke led the Spartan's in rushing (42y). LJ Scott was held to 28y.

MSU's F+ (FEI) numbers look like this #37 at 21.8%, meaning that when MSU has the ball, they score 22% of the time. M's F+ is #9 at 49.1%

It appears that if you take Davis out of the game by making sure he's covered and contain Lewerke when he scrambles, M's D can keep MSU under 13. I'll give 4 points to Dantonio factor: (1) being extremely well prepared for Don Brown in Sparty's Super Bowl, (2) M being on the short end of bad calls and lucky bounces. So, 17 points.

The efficiency of M's offense will depend on who starts at QB and if it's not Speight, whether JOK's performance v. Purdue was an anomaly. Speight has been terrible. Frankly, I don't see him returning to good Speight. However, it's possible that the coaches put him in a position with play calls not well suited for how the offense was actually performing.

I don't think any of us disagree that O'Korn, the 2017 Purdue version of him, is a much better fit in Harbaughffense as it's turning out to be after 4 games: Mediocre to poor run game, porous OL hanging QBs out to dry, limited route running capacity/poor separation from the WRs, Grant Perry +3 and the combo of Gentry, McKeon and Wheatly - all of these guys running short to intermediate crossing routes and hooking up with JOK's crisp and decisive throws in the pocket and off the scramble.

Based on what we've seen so far from the Don Brown D staring Devon Bush and in supporting rolls the trio of Hurst, Winovich and taking all the double teams and getting none of the stats, Rashan Gary, MSU is going to have trouble stringing long drives together like Dantonio likes to do, let alone being efficient in the red zone (MSU ranks 119th in that department!).

As usual, in rivalry games like this, teams cannot afford ST derfs that turn into points for the opponent. I've not seen anything that suggests either M or MSU prone to these kinds of mistakes. M has Nordin, Robbins and Fouge: slight advantage to M if the game comes down to a field position battle and/or FGs.

Keys to an M win: Don't turn the ball over.

Key match-ups: M's DBs v. Felton Davis. Lewerke v. the edge.

If JOK starts and plays like he did at Purdue: M 31 - MSU 17

If Speight starts and plays like he has to date: M24 - MSU 17 (and the offense will only score 14 points; 7 from the D, 3 from FGs).

The spread has been as high as -21 for M; nothing current is available right now. S&P+ comparisons through week 4 shows M winning by 15.2 and 86.6% win probability

[whodean]

M 23, MSU 13

[whodean]

By the way, Congratulations to Michigan State on reaching three wins again this season.