Michigan @ Purdue, Saturday, 9/23, 4p Eastern, FOX/Stream FSGo

[Jeff Buchanan]

With M's/Sp8's road presence in 2016 somewhat concerning and Purdue doing well in 2017, this game appears to be a lot more problematic that we might have thought it would be in the pre-season.

[Cody_Russell]

M will win, but at least it can be close for a while. M wins 33 - 24.

My Purdue notes:
- West Lafayette will be an enjoyable environment on Friday evening/ Saturday for anyone that goes. Breakfast Club, dress up in a halloween costume. Homecoming too.
- With the help of M fans, is it possible we see a sold out crowd in Ross Ade for the first time in a while... nobody gets back on a bandwagon faster than fans in Indiana. and its Homecoming, again.
- You'll get to learn about the Purdue facility renovations.
- David Blough can be brilliant at times. With M's weakness being the CBs(?), perhaps this is something Purdue can exploit. Too bad Purdue doesn't have good WRs.
- While David Blough will be the starter, you might see Elijah Sindelar for a couple series. Hope not... I'm a Blough fan. While Sindelar has a better arm, he is a statue in the pocket.
- Purdue's D plays hard, despite it's disadvantages through talent. Strength is LB crew with Bentley and Bailey.
- Purdue's recruiting is up there with Kansas for worst among Power 5 for the last five years. Basically their average rating for their recruits is between 81-82 on 247. Terrible.
- Jeff Brohm is competent, maybe good-great. Purdue's last two head coaches, Danny Hope and Darrell Hazell, were awful .

[whodean]

35-13 UM

[Jeff Buchanan]

No way. If JH gets a two score lead and the D does what they do, he and sp8 will turtle. Fine with me. Accept tressel ball.

27 - 16.

[UMStan White]

Cody, I understand that the route into the stadium from I-65 (if coming from the south) is under construction and can be difficult. I am coming up I-65 from the south going north. . Can you give me directions to the stadium and the north lots where I can tailgate?

[WingsFan]

-10 No way M covers - Unless M's qb can 'calm down'.

Cody what are the chances M loses this game outright?

[Cody_Russell]

Cody, I understand that the route into the stadium from I-65 (if coming from the south) is under construction and can be difficult. I am coming up I-65 from the south going north. . Can you give me directions to the stadium and the north lots where I can tailgate?

Here are some good reads for parking and directions:

http://www.purduesports.com/ot/pur-parking-construction.html

https://www.hammerandrails.com/football/2017/9/6/16228612/purdue-football-ross-ade-game-day-guide

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/pur/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2017-18/misc_non_event/2017_football_parking_maps.pdf

Basically: "Arrivals from the south via Interstate 65 should utilize either SR 38 West at exit 168 or SR 26 West at exit 172. SR 38 will turn into Main Street and will intersect with SR 26 at which point traffic should continue westbound into West Lafayette on SR 26. "
Whenever my parents tailgated, they would park in the intramural fields Southwest of the stadium. $10-$20
You might need a pass or something to park right next to the stadium on the North side, but that is where the best tailgating is. Again, not sure if you need a pass or not to park there.
When I visit, I just park at my fraternity.

Forgot to mention, I think M will have a big advantage with their D-line vs Purdue's O-line. Gary and Winovich will eat up the Purdue OTs.

[whodean]

No way. If JH gets a two score lead and the D does what they do, he and sp8 will turtle. Fine with me. Accept tressel ball.

I see the D/ST scoring once and setting up a short field for another score.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I see the D/ST scoring once and setting up a short field for another score.

I included that in my 27 point score prediction. The offense might get 13 on its own (1 TD and two FGs), ST and the D will be responsible for the other 14.

[whodean]

Michigan @ Purdue, Saturday, 9/23, 4p Eastern, FOX/Stream FSGo

The Purdue D will be an order of magnitude easier to score on than Florida or Air Force was

[emoji6]


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[Jeff Buchanan]

The Purdue D will be an order of magnitude easier to score on than Florida or Air Force was....

Based on what?

AF is the toughest defense M has played so far. NCAA rankings after 9/16/17 games:

Total D: AF #9, Cincy #49, Purdue #68, FL #100

Third Down Conversions - Defense: Cinci #13, AF #26, Purdue #50, FL #52

These numbers are going to be skewed one way or the other for lack of data points/sample size but the present data do not support your assertion.

Couple that with M's shitty road performances with Harbaugh and Speight in 2016 (is this going to be better in 2017 and why) and M's Red Zone Offense: 10 trips, 1 TD, 8 FGs ....... and you're not looking at the kind of score you initially posted. What your looking at in your two posts is fanciful, unjustified optimism.

I'll be glad to tip my hat your way if M blows out Purdue and wins easily but, IMO, there is not a single piece of subjective data that supports that.

[whodean]

Eye test.

Look at the opponents, as you say especially early the data is skewed.

Florida has a tough D, AF is quality too.

Purdue has been better than they were in years past but against Missouri and Ohio. and Louisville ain't all that as we saw last night.

They also have 2 starters on defense that were injured yesterday.

[whodean]

But still, yeah, the UM offense has to perform much better, especially in the Red Zone.

[Cody_Russell]

Purdue's defense is an untalented group of mostly seniors that play hard/ well coached.
Louisville moved down this defense with no problem, but was hurt by turnovers.
Ohio? Probably an average offense that did an average job.
Missou, while their defense is a dumpster fire, their offense isn't bad. Purdue holding them to 3 at Missou is an impressive job.

Probably closer to the Cincinnati defense if we need a comparison.

[WingsFan]

You have to include this is a road game, Michigan (especially Speight) doesn't play well on the road.