Air Force @ Michigan, Noon, Saturday, 9/16, BTN, Stream BTN2Go

[Hannibal]

The Isaac TD that the refs took away was yet another colossal up-the-ass fucking by the refs in a season that has been positively loaded with them so far. Absolute bullshit call on Crawford. At this point we should probably just spot everyone 4 points.

The offense sucked today and it was largely scheme. Air Force basically lived in our huddle, crashed down like crazy on the run plays and with blitzes, and then watched as our coaches came up with absolutely nothing counter to it. It was classic Mike Debord/Al Borges era bullshit. Have we run a single screen pass this year? Speight wasn't great but IMHO the main culprits today were Drevno and Pep.

There were also a lot of drives killed by a single error on an otherwise successful play. There was the Evans fumble, that Godawful run by Isaac and 3rd and 1 when we had a hold up the middle of the Air Force defense, Speight taking a loss by running out of bounds instead of throwing the ball away, and Speight missing a wide open Isaac on a 3rd and 5 play and instead throwing a pass that just about any Big Ten DB would intercept.

[maxreturn]

Michigan entered the game dead last among Power 5 schools in the percentage of red-zone trips that ended in touchdowns and was shut out on its four attempts inside the 20 Saturday.

That's because the O-line can't push anyone off the line of scrimmage. Fucking Air Force was stopping them. Bo would be appalled if he saw a Michigan team that couldn't run inside the 20 on Air Force. Isaac still runs like a pussy when he doesn't have a huge hole to run through. Evans trips on his own feet. Higdon has burst and runs hard, but usually he's running into a wall. And if you blitz Wilton, he'll gladly throw the ball 5 feet over his receiver's head. As John McKay said when asked about his team's execution, "I'm for it."

Couldn't agree more. Am I the only one who thought when Harbaugh was hired by his third year we'd at least have a competent QB and an explosive RB? Several years ago my wife became a big fan of UM and has watched each game with me. Today, she was the first one to leave in frustration. Usually it's me.

[paul daugherity]

I know that's what I expected. The lack of those things and the lack of progress on o this season have been disappointing.

[WingsFan]

Everyone needs to relax. Speight has only started 15 games, you need to give him some time to improve.

[Cody_Russell]

Game is up on YouTube... barely over 2 hours long. Short and sweet.
It appears like there were some issues with communication on the left side of the o-line in the 1st Q. Bredeson gave up a pressure. There was one where Bredeson was blocking space as AF overloaded a blitz and Ben missed a defender. Then later on, Ulzio had some issues.
A lot of reasons the offense isn't clicking... Speight occasionally missed a throw with good blocking, play calling, o-line, etc..

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhfSNY0BUfY"]Air Force vs Michigan Football 2017 - YouTube[/ame]

[hack]

Cody, what are the logistics of going to see this weekend's game? Small chance I may. In short, is there a lot like the golf course, on grass? If not, is there just a good cool lot to be in? Usually my brother and I take a look at ticket prices right around kickoff, but are often just as happy staying in the lot and watching a satellite hookup, so we want a cool place to be all day.

[CGVT]

I didn't see the game today. I take it from this thread Michigan lost?

[Cody_Russell]

Cody, what are the logistics of going to see this weekend's game? Small chance I may. In short, is there a lot like the golf course, on grass? If not, is there just a good cool lot to be in? Usually my brother and I take a look at ticket prices right around kickoff, but are often just as happy staying in the lot and watching a satellite hookup, so we want a cool place to be all day.

A lot of parking options. All of the activity/ tailgate is on the North/ Northwest side of campus. West side, there is a large field that is used for parking. Also near the Northwest golf course, parking. You can also park at fraternities for like $10-$20.
Here is a nice guide:

https://www.hammerandrails.com/2013/7/16/4528946/updated-game-day-guide-to-purdue-and-west-lafayette

Basically this is the best weekend of the year to be in West Lafayette. Homecoming... hyped game... M fans. It will be a pleasant one in West Lafayette next Saturday. Last time there was a game like this was vs ND in 2011 or 2012. Big game, but Danny Hope got his ass kicked.
Wish I could go. There will be A LOT of people dressed up in costumes btw. Breakfast Club.

[hack]

Thanks man!

[Pasadena Blue]

looked like a badly called game ... that's on Harbaugh/Drevno/Pep .... but as Jeff and others have suggested that maybe them playing it down to what they thought Sp8 could do without turning it over.
Pretty sad state of affairs. Can't see how we can beat Purdon't if this all we can muster.

I do blame Harbaugh for not getting Peters advanced to the point that he could beat out Sp8.

About as disappointing a 3-0 start as one could have. We are at best a 20-25 ranked team -- it pisses me off that idiot Boiler fans will think they actually beat a top10 team next week.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... It was classic Mike Debord/Al Borges era bullshit. ......IMHO the main culprits today were Drevno and Pep.......

I think there is something to this. OTH, I can see the offensive game plan as the game unfolded was to not give the game away with costly errors. The play calling was very conservative on the macro level. Speight wasn't making the throws he needed to make on first or second down, when they were called or he checked into them, and the run plays weren't moving the pile like they needed to move it on early downs either.

If you look at the play calling series by series, without going back and looking at it (we'll see this - or not - on the UFR) I would speculate that 80-90% of the first play in each series, if it did not result in a first down (i.e, a big play) did not keep the series on schedule. IOW, the first play was either an incomplete pass or gained < 4 yards.

You're playing from behind the sticks and the probability of converting and keeping the drive going declines drastically. M was 5/14 on third downs. That kind of outcome on the first play of a single possession is death for Harbaughffense. I think it is that factor that is hamstringing the M offense.

Frankly, and this will also be interesting to examine in the offensive UFR, Drevno (and Speight) got RPS'ed by AF's DC, Steve Russ, a 6y veteran of running the AF D. SPeight said as much in his post game comments. As well, AF's defense is not chopped liver. In 2016, the unit was No. 10 nationally in rushing and 33rd in total defense. Yes, they lost a lot, but AF is a plug and play system and you saw that Saturday.

It's an uncomfortable sort of game but M can win with great STs and D and a very conservative, risk averse offense. It's called tressel-ball and it worked for osu for a decade. STs was markedly improved after the debacle v. Cincy. That kind of offense is frustrating; everybody likes a flashy offense and, again, expectations for this very young offense, all pieces of it considered, were way too high. We're getting about what we should be getting. Flashes of brilliance between mind boggling ineptitude. Harbaugh said, after this win, "I like where this team is right now." I wonder about that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

......... on the post above, here's something from an mgoboard post that is telling and sort of in line with my observations above:

I don't know if the following stats are an indictment of the offensive line or the play calling, but something went really wrong after the Evans fumble. These are the yards gained rushing on all 1st and 10 plays for Michigan in the game, by quarter:

1st Q: 32, 4, 9 (Evans fumble)

2nd Q: 1, 1, 3, -1 (listed as a sack)

3rd Q: 0, 3, 1, 1

4th Q: -1, 3, 3, 4

So excluding the first quarter, the team gained 18 yards on 12 carries on first and 10. That's not the way you want to start a series of downs. Could it be that the playcalling went completely vanilla after we built a little lead? Possibly. Or we never adjusted to AF's defense. Blame Speight all you want folks, averaging 1.5 YPC on 1st and 10 makes it tough for an offense to keep drives alive.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Wow. They ran 15 times on first down? They only had 17 first downs.

[Jeff Buchanan]

......... and only 54 plays. This is what playing AF does.

Another interesting tide bit: Bill Connelly tweaked his take on the importance of big plays to winning. He says big plays are random. The more plays a team runs does not insure more big plays. His new take includes offensive efficiency as an important part of winning.

Efficiency rankings will come out this week. If M is not in the bottom quartile of that ranking, I'll be surprised. What does that mean? It means from a statistical standpoint M is on shaky ground as a top 10 team. There's been some reasonable speculation today about the offensive inefficiency.......the lack of screens has come up a lot. Why these aren't being called is puzzling. One possible reason is once teams see these on tape, they become less likely to succeed. So, don't run them. One poster who went to 2 practices during fall camp said M ran literally dozens of these in practice with both RBs and TEs involved.

Anyway, M is 3-0.

[The Oracle]

Screens tend not to work over and over because it causes the D to be less aggressive, their intended purpose. If they remain over aggressive, they will continue to work.