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**whodean** · September 10, 2017, 08:24 AM

Good tune up for the offense... youngins need reps...Speight needs to get it together.

**Hannibal** · September 10, 2017, 09:07 AM

This game will be about a two score win and it won't be fun to watch. I predict 27-13.

Playing a competent triple option team fucking sucks.

**froot loops** · September 10, 2017, 09:45 AM

Yep not a team to take lightly, they lost a lot of players to graduation but they are very competent. When State played them two years ago, they were surprisingly dirty.

**Cody_Russell** · September 10, 2017, 10:04 AM

Air Force had a bye week to prepare. Can we have two not fun to watch games in a row... Possible.
AF defense should be much worse than Cinci.

**Jeff Buchanan** · September 10, 2017, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal View Post

This game will be about a two score win and it won't be fun to watch. I predict 27-13.

Playing a competent triple option team fucking sucks.

Yes it does. And this is more true when the triple option team your facing has a week off to prepare (see above).

I thought Cincinnati did a very good job of working Don Brown's 3-3-5 with screens, especially the tunnel screens. They took advantage of press-man coverage on several deep balls with M showing decent coverage but in man, it's been pointed out to us that INTs and PBUs are hard. It takes experience to be a threat in this regard on an opponent's long ball. The DBs are not there yet. M's just not seen a really decent QB yet that makes those throws on the regular ..... and M won't see one next week. Note that both INTs for M yesterday occurred when M was in 2-hi zone coverage.

While I think Brown's D v. AF will still play out of a base 3-3-5 (don't quibble about all his variations - it's still 3 down line men with their hand on the ground), You cannot over penetrate v. the triple option; that's going to require some changes to Brown's cannon balls in the gaps D. Much more gap or position discipline is required to contain the triple option.

You have to win first down. The 3-3-5 easily transitions to a 5-2 front. We've already seen this v. UF and Cinnci. You take away the inside option with big NTs and M has some. M has to win this point of attack and I think they can. Given that, the offense is now a double option and infinitely easier to defend.

There's some talk that McCray is playing hurt and his side-line to sideline speed has been compromised. There's been several play breakdowns I've read that described how he got beat on these screens. Devin Gil played a few snaps while McCray reportedly got hydrated v. UF. I don't think now that's what happened. A healthy LB'ing core, schooled well on the triple option, is key to containing AF's version of it. A little worried there as well as the risk to the players trying to contain that type of offense with the chop or cut blocking (the legal and illegal kind; you can read up on the confusing NCAA rules on your own) that takes place.

Despite the light's out performances of the D v. M's first two opponents, this is a young and inexperienced defense. Players can't panic. AF will get its yards. If you listened to JH's post game presser after the Cincinnati game, sage words were said about this. He made a great case for young players getting somewhat freaked out by, yep, the big house and 110K fans. Read it to get a feel for how teams deal or don't deal with emotions.

If the first two games are an indicator, M will play good D v. AF. STs and offense are another matter. Penalties and drive killing derfs from the STs in the return or punting game, QB and the OL, backs missing opportunities, the potential for fumbles/turnovers are all there. Sucks but it's a reality that JH and his staff have to deal with.

That reality is going to limit the offense and Harbaugh will lean heavily and play to his D. That means a low risk offense and a low scoring game. Something like 27-13 is what I'm feeling.

Something to make me look stupid: Speight is flawless, makes the throws on first downs that JH needs to sustain his offense, hits a couple of long balls for TDs and the OL is opening holes in AFs defensive front that all three backs truck right through..

**klondike** · September 10, 2017, 08:44 PM

Forget about style points. Just get out with a win. It will be boring as hell as I suspect AF will hold the ball for 35 plus min. and UM will pull away in the fourth with some passing plays. AF will stop their running game for the most part. I hate playing these niche option teams. There's no win in it at all, except the final score.

**hack** · September 10, 2017, 09:20 PM

Not that I disagree -- they are a pain in the ass. But that's a fantastic Yogi Berra line there: "There's no win in it at all, except the final score."

**WingsFan** · September 10, 2017, 09:43 PM

When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

**WingsFan** · September 10, 2017, 09:56 PM

Early (-24)

**Hannibal** · September 11, 2017, 08:12 AM

I'll be very pleased if we come close to covering that.

**Jeff Buchanan** · September 13, 2017, 12:10 PM

I love these write ups (Neck Sharpies). This one has really nothing to do with AF except in one sense and I'll get to that.

What this one is about is the Tunnel Screen run very effectively by Cinci against Don Browns hyper-aggressive defenses. The point of these Tunnel Screens (the opposite of a Bubble Screen) is to get a receiver and his blockers into the area just barely past the LOS. Seth does a great job of explaining why this works against very aggressive defenses like M's.

Neck Sharpies: The Tunnel Screen of Doom | mgoblog

http://mgoblog.com/content/neck-sharpies-tunnel-screen-doom#more

Re-watching Saturday’s game the damage didn’t look so bad—take away Cincy’s illegal picks and we’re down to quibbles about McCray’s position and Kinnel finally taking a bad angle that one time. There was only one play that Michigan didn’t seem to have an answer for, despite Cincy running it SEVEN times: The tunnel screens. This is not a new problem; Maryland got 103 yards on four of them last year. Did Fickell find a hole in Don Brown’s attack? Was it a certain player? Was Cincy just good at that? Quickly: WHAT IS: A TUNNEL SCREEN Coincidentally I got this from Kyle Jones of 11W’s Cincinnati preview in 2014 A tunnel screen is kind of the reverse of a bubble: you block outside-in with a slot guy and bring your receiver inside-out. Typically covered linemen will seek to delay an insta-pass rush while uncovered OL release to cut off the second level. It’s mostly a counter versus an aggressive man defense because you’re punishing linemen from running upfield so far you can squeeze a ballcarrier and his convoy behind them. However in this game Cincy was doing some odd stuff with it. I’ve listed them by increasing order of weirdness: 1. Get the Ball to Your Athletes Like Maryland last year, Cincinnati came into this game with a plan to negate their offensive linemen and trust their athletes in space. Michigan for its part refused to back off the pass rushers, or to change up their simple man assignments for this game. Even on the 7th time they see this, Don Brown is not going to give any quarter inside to win a DT spy. He’d rather David Long wind up the Viper: Bush did as well as you could ask to redirect with a TE cutting his legs out, but Cincy’s RB caught it in stride and accelerated quickly. Long on the other hand was way more hesitant in his turn at trying to woop the OL and ate a block. Kinnel arrived just in time to make this a 4th and 2. Part of Michigan’s problem with these all day was the screen targets were very precise in their routes and excellent at accelerating with the catch. Running back Mike Boone (above) and slot receiver Kahlil Lewis were Cincy’s best offensive players, and this play was a good way to put them in a position to make that count. 2. Tight End is Blocking a CB Off the Snap Like It’s a Run Play Here’s the first tunnel screen against Michigan last week and you can watch the tight end motion across and make the key block on the CB (Long) in man coverage on the screen target (Michigan’s in straight-up Cover 1, with Hudson following the TE across rather than switching with Kinnel). That gives Cincy a TE rather than a slot receiver removing the man in man-to-man coverage. You’d like David Long to realize faster what’s happening and attack but that’s asking for him to make a big play. By the way if you’re wondering if the TE can cut block while the ball is in the air, this is contact within a yard of the line of scrimmage and thus a legal block: ARTICLE 8. b.Offensive pass interference is contact by a Team A player beyond the neutral zone that interferes with a Team B player during a legal forward pass play in which the forward pass crosses the neutral zone. It is the responsibility of the offensive player to avoid the opponents. It is not offensive pass interference (A.R. 7-3-8-IV, V, X, XV and XVI): When, after the snap, a Team A ineligible player immediately charges and contacts an opponent at a point not more than one yard beyond the neutral zone and maintains the contact for no more than three yards beyond the neutral zone. The releasing center’s block on McCray wouldn’t be a legal block if he made contact with McCray, but he is just getting in the way and that too is legal. Hudson is able to recover but now the receiver has momentum and gets 6 yards. Now that it was on tape Cincy eschewed the subterfuge and usually lined up the receiver directly behind the tight end in a stack. On the second tunnel screen (to the RB) they get Devin Bush playing off coverage, but the TE can still lock onto Long and take him for a ride. I circled the TE’s block on Long this time because this play erroneously made the (mostly legit) list of missed offensive PI plays. But read that same rule above again: ARTICLE 8. b.Offensive pass interference is contact by a Team A player beyond the neutral zone that interferes with a Team B player during a legal forward pass play in which the forward pass crosses the neutral zone. It is the responsibility of the offensive player to avoid the opponents. It is not offensive pass interference (A.R. 7-3-8-IV, V, X, XV and XVI): The ball is caught behind the line of scrimmage, which the NCAA defines as a run for downfield blocking purposes. With Long blocked out by a TE it’s now all three interior OL escorting the RB downfield. Two of them are doing what you’d expect: the right guard authoritatively cuts out Devin Bush’s legs to make a lane, and the center is trundling downfield to take out Michigan’s last defender, Tyree Kinnel. [After the jump: Seth loses his sanity, then we have five more of these]

**Jeff Buchanan** · September 13, 2017, 12:20 PM

....... you'll see a couple of references in Seth's piece to how Brown reacted to the effective Tunnel Screens; he didn't and most likely purposefully saying, so, what if that's the only play in their play-book they can run for a couple of yards, I'll take it. That approach mostly worked when you look at the game stats. I think Brown was completely happy with harassing Cincy's QB and not allowing him to make big plays down field and get a rhythm going.

So, what about AF facing Don Brown and his cannon balls? Seth points out that the best way to beat the Tunnel Screen is to NOT BE AGGRESSIVE. He also notes that running your 3-3-5 as a 4-2-5, less aggressively is the way to go.

If you watch the video in this article you can see there are a few, very few, times where there is sort-of a 4-2-5 concept being run. Brown likes to disguise where the 4th (or 5th as the case might be) rusher is going to come from within the LBs, S and even the corners. When these guys don't come, the net result is a 4-2-5 and it's usually a 2-hi, zone defense on the back end.

This is what we will probably see more off v. AF. The 4-2-5. Regardless, it's one of things I'll be watching for in one form or another from the diabolical Brown.

**Hannibal** · September 13, 2017, 12:42 PM

From what I can see, Don Brown never played against Georgia Tech when he was the DC at Boston College, so I don't know what he does agauinst the triple option or what his track record is there. The triple option seems like the ultimate offense that begs for a read-and-react approach on defense.

**WM Wolverine** · September 13, 2017, 01:14 PM

I thought Cincy's OL was getting too far downfield, they were always less than 3-yards going by the handful of images at MGoBlog...

That tunnel screen was more than half their offense.

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