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Gonna go to usc/Texas, still trying to decide what to do with that one. If it gets to 17 by kick, no reason not to hit UT hard.
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USC is going to score a lot, Texas isn't going to score a lot.Comment
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Welp, fuck this stupid contest:
I'll push half of what I have left on Michigan and the other half on UCLA.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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$7000 on UCLA"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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Sean and I were going through the picks last night using a spread sheet that compares power ratings (S&P+) differential compared to the spread. The closer the two numbers, the lower the probability the pick is correct. We realize that the data in S&P+ is limited for now. It gets better at predicting outcomes as the season goes on ..... sometimes. CFB and all that.Originally posted by iam416 View Post
All of this week's slate are very close one way or the other. None of them were easy picks. Surprisingly, by the numbers, Texas was a favorable probability pick ATS. I picked Texas despite my gut.
I picked AF by gut as M was the pick ATS by the numbers.
Can't you make it a little easier next time AA?Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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AA is either hoping to become an impartial observer or knows something? Jim Mora Jr. on the road against a not-terrible team.Comment
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Clemson - $750
Tennessee - $2000
USC - $750Comment
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Lines close in an hour and a half. Get your picks in if you haven't already."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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Going broke. Even knew UCLA was all sucker.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Same. It's not over until Wild Hoss sings, though."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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True. Still, it's galling to make the public play after laying out all the sharp reasons not to.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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I chose to stay away, took over 72 instead.Comment
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Yeah, my buddy was touting that over as best play of the weekend. I agreed. Good play, Oracle!Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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True. But it just doesn't make sense. Memphis struggled to beat a bad UL-M team their last game. A UL-M team that hasn't had a winning season in several years.Originally posted by iam416 View Post
In that game, the Memphis QB was 10 for 25 with an INT and no TDs for a 64.6 rating. UL-M had significantly more first downs, more TOP, more total yards, and only lost because of 6 fumbles (3 lost). Even then, of Memphis' TD's, one was a 99-yard kick return and three others were busted plays with TD runs of 66, 55, and 63 yards. Memphis gave up close to 300 yards in passing to UL-M. UL-frigging-M! This looked like a bad line.
But the sharps knew. They knew, somehow. Driving the line down significantly because they all took M-piss."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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This is a perfect example of why I hate the "lines don't mean anything it's just a reflection of public betting" nonsense. The books KNOW. They set lines where they think they should be. They may adjust a little, but they are more interested in good lines than splitting public.
They knew Memphis was a liability and kept moving the line despite huge public pressure otherwise. And here we are. UCLA may still cover, but the books were right. I'm sure they make a killong if Memphis covers.
Actually, the thing they probably like best is a huge public sucker play. That's long-term gold.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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