Michigan 33, Florida 17

[Jeff Buchanan]

.....The conservative strategy took as many or more points off the board as Speight did. The strategy worked as Florida's offense rarely crossed the 50-yd line but might not against an opponent that isn't one dimensional.......

This is a good point. In my post game thinking I may be putting too much emphasis on what I perceive as weaknesses in JH's offensive strategy (the head scratching 4th qtr play calls and difficulty closing the deal late).

When your D plays like M's D seems to be capable of playing against a struggling offense (and you and I both know UF's O was struggling), game strategy certainly can and will change.

Let's say that when M goes to Happy Valley and plays PSU, there are multiple lead changes with both teams battling into the 4th quarter with both offenses managing to do damage; Speight is 12/24 with a TD and one INT. M has rushed for over 150. McSorley has thrown for 250 including one long TD bomb and Barkely is over 100. Both defenses are doing well with a slight edge to M on pressure metrics. M is up 4 by virtue of fumble recovery and FG as the third ends.

Does JH go higher risk and close the deal or does he go conservative to protect a 4pt lead allowing, IMO, the outcome to be decided by some weird high variance play, bad call by the refs or the football god's hating on M?

[Cody_Russell]

Full game is on YouTube btw:
[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGF70WGwz5s&t=2336s"]Michigan vs Florida | 9-2-2017 | Full Game HD - YouTube[/ame]

In skimming through that game... just love Devin Bush Jr. Reminds me of Ernie Sims at FSU (when Ernie Sims was great).

[WM Wolverine]

Harbaugh's first full recruiting class ('16) are true sophomores/redshirt freshman and they are performing well ahead of schedule...

Brandon Peters, Dylan McCaffrey, & Joe Milton will get their chance but probably not till '19...

Harbaugh stole Higdon from Iowa in the '15 class but that supposedly caused Mike Weber to recommit to the Buckeyes... Chris Evans has surpassed most everyone's expectations and appears he'll be a good to very good B1G running back... Kareem Walker will get his opportunity after Isaac graduates, whom he's similar in style too... Eventually M will land a Najee Harris instead of losing him to Bama and RB recruiting will look like a strength...

OL has had near misses too. Devery Hamilton decommitted at the last second to Stanford... Grant Newsome's injury really hurt M OT/OL in '16/'17, one injury will be less of a concern once M has talented depth... Erik Swenson didn't feel the need to compete for a scholarship at a Michigan camp, a school he was already committed too... Isaiah Wilson was an odd recruitment, decommit as was Kai-Leon Herbert; both offensive tackles from '17...

[Hannibal]

21 out of 22 players for Michigan outplayed 21 out of 22 players for Florida. Everything in the game short of QB play either met or exceeded expectations. Especially the OL. Our non-QBs ran for 229 yards on 43 carries with a very green offensive line. The RBs got very few of those yards on their own -- most of them were blocked or schemed for them. I don't get why people are complaining about this, but maybe I'm missing something. The receivers lived up to the hype. McKeon and Eubanks were big factors. Our pass catchers beat the coverage repeatedly. Ulizio was a weak link, but a palatable one. The new starters at CB made me nervous before the game, but they forced the Florida QBs to throw the ball accurately, something that they only did a few times. Total yardage was a shit kicking of the caliber that we more typically see playing against MAC teams. It really was a best case scenario -- something we've barely got any experience with at Michigan since 1997. With competent QB play, the final score would have been something more like 40-3.

But the QB spot -- Speight sucks horribly and the ceiling with him is 10-3 with a loss to OSU and no championship. I don't agree with the conventional wisdom that the first pick six was somehow Kekoa Crawford's fault. Crawford was wide open and Speight gunned it clean over his head. Nobody shorter than Wilt Chamberlain could have caught that pass. It was inexcusably awful. His recognition and release are slow, his accuracy ranges from sucky to average, his throws rarely have any zip, and his throwing motion is downright comical. And against anyone with a pulse, his game management stinks too. Even his big TD to black was a wounded duck that was only caught because Tarik Black was wide open like the first guy out for practice. That pass reminded me of a deep pass thrown by a noodle-armed triple option QB who only throws the ball six times a game. On the last sack, Nick Eubanks (I think) was blitheringly wide open and Speight didn't see him. I can't imagine what could possibly be happening with Peters and O'Korn in practice for Speight to legitimately be our best guy. He is a game manager who doesn't manage the game.

The game management by Harbaugh on that last missed field goal drive was baffling too. The previous time that we were inside the ten, we rammed into the end zone on two plays. Why in God's name would you put it in the hands of your shitty QB in that situation? You've got four downs to play with -- just hand it off to Higdon or Hill four times and either punch it in or leave Florida on their own 2 yard line. I can only postulate that Harbaugh was trying to give Speight another TD pass to boost his confidence.

So, overall a very good game. I'll enjoy watching this team blow out crappy opponents again. No doubt, Speight will "rebound" against Cincinnati with another one of those games where he has 22 attempts for 250 yards and 3 TDs. The other B1G games that I watched or saw highlights from this weekend didn't do much to alleviate my concerns about our schedule strength though -- something that I think people have underestimated. There won't be as many gimmies this year as there were last year.

[Hannibal]

Wasn't that way when he had Luck and Kaepernick. He inherited Wilton and hasn't been able to recruit anyone to take his place. The offense may look "milquetoast" because Hoke didn't leave much at QB, O-line & RB, and Harbaugh has not been able to recruit those latter two positions as well as hoped either. It seems that everyone else good running backs but Michigan. That's one huge recruiting advantage Urban Meyer has had over Harbaugh.

The Hoke QB excuse is fading. Our '15 and '16 QBs were highly touted guys and neither one of them is a factor (or else they would be playing).

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fair read on Sp8 from Maize and Brew:

So...let?s stop dancing around everyone?s favorite, non-polarizing topic: Wilton Speight!

Speight completed 11-of-25 passes (44.0%) for 181 yards (7.2 YPA) and three touchdowns -- one to Tarik Black and two to Florida defensive backs. I have been a defender of Speight. He was unfairly criticized during the offseason for his performance at the end of last season, whilst injured, and he was unfairly criticized for his performance in the first half. Let?s just say that, during halftime, Michigan fans on Twitter were not pleased with Speight after he threw pick-sixes on back-to-back drives, which would end up being Florida?s only touchdowns of the game. There is no question that the second one, when he overthrew Grant Perry on an out, was all on him. However, the first one was really not his fault. Yes, Speight may have fired it slightly high, but that ball hit Kekoa Crawford squarely in the hands right above his helmet. It is not as if Crawford?s arms were fully extended. It was not a perfect pass, but it was quite good and one that Crawford absolutely needed to haul in for a first down. In fact, Speight was not rewarded with better statistics, in part, because his receivers dropped several balls that should have been caught.

On the other hand, Speight?s numbers were not as good as they could have been because he made costly mistakes. First, I am not sure yet if it was nerves or technique, but Speight was airmailing his throws. The first interception was slightly high, the second interception was absolutely high, and he put too much juice on too many throws. In the fourth quarter, he could have sealed the game earlier when he had Crawford running all by himself down the far sideline on third down. All Speight needed to do was drop the ball somewhere in bounds, and it would have been an easy Michigan touchdown. However, Speight put too much power on it and led Crawford out of bounds. The Wolverines lined up for a field goal, which Quinn Nordin missed.

Speight is Michigan?s best quarterback. His pocket presence and ability to keep plays alive are outstanding, and he can make some crisp throws. Just look at his strike to Perry over the middle in the third quarter to set up a touchdown and the dime to Nick Eubanks in double coverage. But Speight needs to be more consistent, and he cannot miss gimmes the defense gives him and give gimmes to those same defenses. When that happens, it leaves the door open for inferior opponents to upset Michigan. Speight should be thankful Florida had no firepower to do that in the fourth quarter.

[Hannibal]

LMAO at the first pick six being "slightly high". That is some serious delusion. It would have required a circus catch to bring it in. If the receiver has to leave his feet (he did) and extend his arms to catch a simple slant only 15 yards downfield then the QB made a shitty throw. An average QB in today's game easily gets that pass on target.

[Niffla]

I didn't read the thread but just wanted to ask if anybody from here made the trip to Dallas for the game?

I was there. Had some pretty sweet seats. 4 rows back around the 20 yard line. We had access to the lower level (I mean under the actual seating of the lower bowl) where you could get right behind the Michigan bench, like literally 10 feet behind it. It was pretty bad ass.

It was great seeing and talking to all the UM fans that made the trip from Michigan. It was truly a bowl atmosphere. We hung out in Arlington and did some drinking before and after the game at a local bar, and really just all over Arlington it was crawling with UM & UF fans.

[Jeff Buchanan]

LMAO at the first pick six being "slightly high". That is some serious delusion. It would have required a circus catch to bring it in. If the receiver has to leave his feet (he did) and extend his arms to catch a simple slant only 15 yards downfield then the QB made a shitty throw. An average QB in today's game easily gets that pass on target.

I agree with you ....... didn't say this report was accurate, just that it was fair and I'm not defending or making excuses for Speight. He is what he is. Like you said, Wilton is going to get us all excited over the next 2 games where M will drill Cincy and AF. He'll look fantastic and everyone will be praising his name.

Then he'll go on the road to play Purdue. He won't play well but M will win not because the offense could score but becasue the D will prevent Purdue from doing so. In that game, nobody will talk much about Speight because of the points the D and STs will probably score and probably M's running game.

M will ass-rape MSU in Ann Arbor and Speight will throw for 300y making Lewerke look like the new guy he is and Dantonio the sucker he is. More praise, higher expectations for a B10 Championship, a CFBP berth an undefeated season and so on.

Reality.

M goes on the road to IU and PSU.

M struggles with IU but wins, again not because of Speight who turns the ball over several times but because of the D that bails him out..... and DeBord who hamstrings Legow with shitty calls for him.

M cannot beat PSU in HV with a QB that is just OK. The combo of McSorely and Barkley is going to test Don Brown. Speight has to be way better than just OK to help out Brown and M's D. He CANNOT turn the ball over putting the D on a short field to bail him out. He CANNOT miss wide open opportunities to score TDs. Chances are good that he will do both.

Speight and the O get a rest v. Rutgers and the Gophers at home. He'll do fine.

Next M goes on the road again to College Park, then Madison.

Maryland? This game, after Maryland beat Texas on the road at their house, with a Freshman QB (Hill) who replaced their starter (Pilgrome) looks more like one of those WTF games I've been talking about. Starting Terp's QB, Pigrome's status is pending an MRI this week. Either way for these two QBs, it's DJ Durkin and an explosive offense. Does anyone think Speight is the guy to play in a game that might be a shoot out, on the road? I don't.

Badgers? I really don't have a good feel for this yet. Ask me in a couple of weeks. They bludgeoned Utah State after a rocky start. The only positive is that Wisky's power I form offense with a heavy does of their TEs is what what M's D practices against all the time. But the game is in fucking Madison. I can hear the sound of the annoying bench stomping now.

Finally osu. I still think M will beat the buckeyes even with Speight's liabilities. osu will probably have one loss, M will have two maybe three. If two, we'll probably be into a tie breaker situation for the east rep to the CCG. I'm not smart enough, nor am I savant, to even speculate on that outcome. I'll leave that to talent..... and he's smart enough to not get involved in that discussion, just yet anyway.

Like I've said from the start of the 2017 M prognostication season, M's ceiling is 9-3, the outcome of THE Game, if M actually does have 2 and not 3 losses going in to this one, has the potential of proving me wrong. Hope I am.

[Hannibal]

I agree with you ....... didn't say this report was accurate, just that it was fair and I'm not defending or making excuses for Speight.

Understood -- my comment wasn't directed at you. I have noticed that analytical bloggers have a habit of reacting to negative fanbase gut reactions with a contrarian opinion, even when that gut reaction is correct (IMHO in this case it is spot on). I expect that Brian at mgoblog will be in full anti-Occam's Razor mode for the UFR this week.

M will ass-rape MSU in Ann Arbor

I would love to see this, but we will never ass-rape Dantonio.

[whodean]

Wondering how awful Florida's offense is or how good Ms defense is.

Both. But the defense may actually be as goods as it was last season.

Particularly happy with the play of Bush at LB, position which looked up in the air over the summer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hannibal]

Chances are, we won't get a definitive answer on that question until the Penn State game.

[Tslisher]

LMAO at the first pick six being "slightly high". That is some serious delusion. It would have required a circus catch to bring it in. If the receiver has to leave his feet (he did) and extend his arms to catch a simple slant only 15 yards downfield then the QB made a shitty throw. An average QB in today's game easily gets that pass on target.

I'll have to watch it again, but I don't think it was that high. Crawford got both hands on it and should have made the catch.

[WM Wolverine]

Not much (at least here) has been said about Brown essentially going to a 3-3-5/ 3-4-4 defense versus the Gators...

We saw very little of Mone, usually going with a 3rd linebacker (Gil & Furbush). It'll require re-watching to understand everything that went on personnel and scheme wise but it sure worked. Outside of a 16 yard scramble from Franks, Florida was negative rushing for the day and second longest rush was an 8-yd pickup. Every Florida run was getting hit at the line of scrimmage, often by multiple defenders.

Most importantly, this was suppose to be a good offensive line and they have 'talent' at running back.

[WM Wolverine]

If you get two hands on the football, you deserve a lot of blame if it results in an INT.