Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[iam416]

There is just lots and lots and lots wrong with this:

I defined games decided by 1 score or less as games that finished within 8 points. Look at Michigan State's record in the past three years. NFL guys who look at these sorts of numbers love to mention regression to the mean. Normally, you can expect teams to finish around .500 in these coin flip games. Somehow, Dantonio has connived his way to a 12-5 record. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh has been somewhat snakebitten. The 4 wins were two OT games against Indiana, the game against Minnesota, and last year's 7 point win against Wisconsin in which they nearly tripled the Badgers yardage. The 6 losses include the dropped punt, two 1 point losses last year, the travesty in Columbus and this year's monsoon game. At some point, you have to believe this will turn around.

Further, he takes time to attribute the difference between UFM and JH to talent (and, to a far lesser extent, coaching), but doesn't apply the same standard to JH and Dantonio.

[WM Wolverine]

Brown didn't blitz as much from what I saw in first view vs Buckeyes. LB & safeties made a few big mistakes in run support that led to big plays, first downs...

Both Metellus and Kinnel have been exposed this season in pass coverage, and run support. Cover 1 leaves you with one safety having to make the play or give up a big play. Certainly an area that needs to be cleaned up for next season.

[Hannibal]

Dantonio >>>>> Harbaugh.

Any attempt to deny this is utterly laughable.

He inherited a smoking crater of a program from John L. Smith that generally gets mediocre fan support and hadn't won anything of value at the time in 20 years. He took John L. Smith's crappy recruiting classes and immediately produced winning records. He has defied the naysayers and rebuilt his team time and time again with the exception of one weird 3-9 season that was clearly an outlier. He has beaten Urban Meyer twice and won two conference championships. He is an elite coach.

Franklin is a little more of a mystery. He won a B1G championship in year 3 after taking over a program that had just come off of the most horrendous scandal in the history of college football. But Saquon Barkley might be his Vince Young. We'll find out next year. He does come across as being a gigantic dope and his OC will likely be gone soon too.

[iam416]

Ohio State, under UFM, is 17-3 in games decided by 8 points or less. Should we expect UFM and OSU to go 3-17 over their next 20 games decided by 8 points or less?

Not all 8 point games are created equal. And a 7 point favorite in Vegas generally has implied odds of 75% to win. A 7-point game is NOT a toss-up in any conceivable fashion

[Jeff Buchanan]

There is just lots and lots and lots wrong with this:



Further, he takes time to attribute the difference between UFM and JH to talent (and, to a far lesser extent, coaching), but doesn't apply the same standard to JH and Dantonio.

I think that's fair. I'm airborn to Cancun right now but will look at this more closely later. At first glance, I thought the analysis was decent based on the measures he used.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Ohio State, under UFM, is 17-3 in games decided by 8 points or less. Should we expect UFM and OSU to go 3-17 over their next 20 games decided by 8 points or less?

Not all 8 point games are created equal. And a 7 point favorite in Vegas generally has implied odds of 75% to win. A 7-point game is NOT a toss-up in any conceivable fashion

Understood ........ I wonder why he chose that number to identify these toss-up games? What are the implied odds for a 2pt margin? It might be worth asking the author to run the analysis using that number.

Hanni, good point. Different way of looking at it but nonetheless, good point. I'm not a big fan of Mark Dantonio's coaching or his ability to sustain decent talent levels on his roster.

People say you make your own luck but damn,it's hard to deny Dantonio is one lucky SOB.

[hack]

D'antonio is one heck of a coach, there is absolutely no doubt about it. >>>>>>>>>Harbaugh? I don't know about that. Harbaugh's Michigan has been awfully disappointing in rivalry games, but, again, sample size.

[froot loops]

A lot of this analysis seems to be justification for the extreme hype that accompanied the hiring of Harbaugh. Harbaugh is a good coach, he is a good fit for Michigan but he is in a conference that is at the high point for its coaches. You have a lot of good programs.

None of these guys are going anywhere especially in the East. It is shaping up to be a 5 year battle royal.

[iam416]

A lot of this analysis seems to be justification for the extreme hype that accompanied the hiring of Harbaugh

Correct.

[hack]

I think some of the frustration is valid for those same reasons. Harbaugh had an exceptionally outstanding coaching resume on arrival here. He hasn't had many ball bounce his way since. But rather than chalk it up to a crazy punt or a crazy batch of refs or an absolute shit QB behind an absolute shit line, because he inherited Hoke's roster, people are looking for some sort of systemic explanation. I think at this point if you're a Michigan fan you sigh that you didn't get the faster start you hoped for, and trust that better days are ahead, because Harbaugh's been a coach long enough to justify that expectation. If you're expecting to rip off a decade of dominance over OSU, forget it. Be happy splitting the next ten, unless the grey swan of compliance actually shows up. If you're expecting to stuff Dantonio back into a smaller box, forget it. Michigan can and should go back to winning 3 of 4 against them, but it's never going to be easy. In that game in particular Michigan has to thug it up to the level that MSU does. Just has to.

But all that is coming. If we must lay blame, it goes on Dave Brandon and Mary Sue Coleman and the Michigan arrogance that led to Hoke somehow being an acceptable hire in a year when Harbaugh was available. Meyer got a four-year head start, and this is all a lesson in having your institutional shit together for the day when it'll be necessary to be the best institution you can possible be. Which Michigan did not.

[Tom W]

Simply put, Harbaugh's biggest failing thus far is that his expectations have exceeded the reality. He expects a decent and rational QB that doesn't overthrow open receivers or throw at phantoms in the middle of the field when a TE is wide open to the right. He expects punters to not bobble snaps, offensive lineman to complete blocks and receivers to run routes and catch balls. He also expects the BG10 to have competent officials- especially in marquee games.

[Mainevent]

I expected an offensive line that could open holes and protect its QB. So I guess we’re even.

I’m disappointed in the results for this team. Not necessarily that they lost 4 games, as I was expecting a bit of a down year. I’m disappointed in how they got there, looking largely incompetent on offense any time they took the field against a good opponent. And racking up a shit-ton if penalties.

Harbaugh is still the man for the job, but its going to take more than enthusiasm unknown to mankind.

[WingsFan]

Alex Malzone is also transferring from Michigan. He will give up his final year of eligibility to play elsewhere.


Ole Miss QB Shea Patterson, native of Toledo Ohio, and the top QB from the 2016 recruiting class, was rumored to be in attendance in Ann Arbor on Saturday, .. and may be considering a transfer to Michigan. The story goes that if Ole Miss's NCAA punishment will allow transfers and immediate eligibility at another school that Patterson will likely transfer to Michigan.

[WingsFan]

Thank Liney for that update

[Dr. Strangelove]

Really? Liney? What's he up to?