Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[Hannibal]

Brian frequently beats his oars upstream against the current of Occam's Razor when trying to explain or rationalize Michigan's failures. His latest explanation is Patrick Kugler line calls. This would not bother me so much were it not for the disdain that Brian and Ace are increasingly showing for their critical fan base. On at least a few of their podcasts this year, Brian and Ace have complained about all of the people that they are blocking on twitter.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Brian frequently beats his oars upstream against the current of Occam's Razor when trying to explain or rationalize Michigan's failures. His latest explanation is Patrick Kugler line calls. This would not bother me so much were it not for the disdain that Brian and Ace are increasingly showing for their critical fan base. On at least a few of their podcasts this year, Brian and Ace have complained about all of the people that they are blocking on twitter.

I agree with this .........

I can't remember who but a feud of words broke out at mgoboard about a month ago over someone with cred on that site taking issue with Brian's conclusions and his "almighty attitude" when they are disputed. Details escape me but the feud of words was over soft ball takes by Brian when what was needed was a more critical, hard hitting eye.

So, Hanni's view, consistent with talent and others here is not an isolated one. My view is that Brian's criticism is there it just isn't an in your face sort of criticism and, IMO, it is for sure muted.

I also believe that M's OL issues in particular are more player execution related than they are coaching related. I'll concede that this is a debatable position from a fan perspective.

I also can't dismiss talent's argument that if it is a predominantly player execution problem then change the scheme or the plays. I do think we saw that as it became apparent that zone blocking for run plays weren't working; there was an observable switch to more man or gap blocking plays (power). From this, I'd conclude there are some changes but not so significant that the offense is going to somehow transform from the offense that JH knows and wants to play at M.

[iam416]

I think they have moved more to "what can we actually execute." They're still significantly limited by QB-play. That's the one excuse that's at least credible. The problem, though, is the mythology of HARBAUGH!!! as the "Quarterback Whisperer" or whatever. So the more you talk about awful QB play the more that is called into question. So their tends to be a little more focus on the OL, at least from Mgo.

Eh, whatever the reasons, the offense hasn't been good enough or, IMO, anywhere close. Folks can still make excuses for that wrt Hoke and an injury. I think they're garbage, but whatever. Next year there are absolutely no excuses. First, they're all Harbaugh players. Second, no position group should ever be one injury from catastrophic failure. That, in and of itself, is a failure.

Good chat, Buchanan.

[drok]

My take on the offense:
OL
- margin of error on the OL was extremely small due to Hoke BS, resulting in limited senior options
- Harbaugh and staff should absolutely be held accountable for not recognizing and addressing that issue adequately
- without that being addressed, shitty luck in some recruiting misses and the Newsome injury resulted in us crossing that small margin of error and the shitastic pass protection we are experiencing

So I kind of agree with both Jeff and Talent at the same time. Yes, it's a player issue in a sense. The players that they are left with are either young developing talent or just bad seniors. I think the coaches are VERY limited in adjusting the overall offense to cover for this. HOWEVER, the coaches, including HARBAUGH should be held responsible for not addressing the potential risk here in recruiting for the past 2 years. There are not enough OL bullets in the chamber. A few more players here and I think this discussion is very different. The coaches needed to ensure that we had those.

QB
- there's no doubt that O'Korn was a flyer on the grad circuit trade market and is who is who he is. I don't think his lack of development is on the coaches. But the lack of recognition of this was a fatal mistake.
- I feel very good about what the coaches were able to accomplish with Speight last year. However, I think he's never been very comfortable in pressure (who is?) and I really think that the OL pass protection issues this year, which are attributable to recruiting malpractice, have made him look much worse than last year.
- The biggest coaching failure for this position group this year is waiting to play Peters. I don't think he should have got the start over Speight, but they should have been able to recognize O'Korn's failings and brought Peters on immediately. Especially since O'Korn is gone after this year.

RB
- this is a solid group that would look much better with any semblance of a passing threat

WR
- young and the QB's haven't been able to build anything with them due to OL pass protection
- is the "Passing Game Coordinator" enough of a coach for this group to have them develop?

TE
- look good

Overall scheme
- I'd prefer power spread offense similar to OSU, but if we're going MANBALL, I've seen enough from Harbaugh to feel like he can get quite a bit out of that scheme compared to a lot of offenses running a similar offensive philosophy.
- The OL recruiting misses have severely hampered the ability for this offense to work as well as it can. Given the offensive philosophy and OL limitations, I've been relatively fine with the tactical and game to game schemes as I think they are stuck. They are still responsible for being in this position though.
- The play calling cabal or whatever seems crazy to me. I don't see how that can possibly be a good way to do things and I don't think there's a lot of evidence to date that it's been a good thing.

Final thoughts
- recognizing the OL risk and addressing it through recruiting has absolutely curbed the potential of this and future teams. Getting Newsome back is a band aid on an absolutely massive misstep
- Choosing O'Korn over Peters was the biggest in-season mistake
- Given those two, I think it's really hard to sort out if the current offensive staff is the right group of people, or alternatively, which staff members need to go. But the way it's structured or executed on game day seems very problematic
- My outlook is that things will get quite a bit better but not nearly as quickly as it could or should

[Jeff Buchanan]

Great read, Drok.

It's kinda sad we're on the eve of The Game and we're already talking, maybe next year.

I'd have to say that while I was ecstatic with the Harbaugh hire, the RR and Hoke hires tamped my enthusiasm and that's probably a good thing as if you didn't, you are sorely disappointed.

I'm disappointed, yes but I'm not despondent to the point where I fail to see potential. Like some, I can see the missing pieces and what contributed to them and by extension I can understand 8-3 in 2017 and find it very difficult to see 9-3 after tomorrow.

[whodean]

Wait for next season.

Sucks but I really do think this team was just really young (gotta find a QB, maybe it's Speight or Peters for next year)

[WingsFan]

Harbaugh has been a bust 9-7 last 12 months. Very Hoke like, but he did beat osu.

2018

8-4 or 7-5 probable

Possibly 9-3 I would bet money this will not happen

Loses at ND, MSU and of course osu

[WM Wolverine]

ND loses a lot to graduation, M loses very little...

10+ wins is very likely imo.

[Hannibal]

We'll be 8-4 at best. 0-3 on the road to our rivals plus one other loss.

[Rocky Bleier]

Rivals? Don't you have to beat someone occasionally to consider them a rival?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think I have Stan beat by 2y as the oldest M fan poster in this forum. Not sure about Geezer. I'm almost positive I have the longest period of active fan involvement in M football going back to 1962. So, I consider myself well positioned to offer perspective on the 2017 season.

In the modern era of CFB (since 1955), M has never been a dominant program. It has streaks of good years and bad years. In the 62 years including 1955, M has completed it's season ranked in the top 10 of established ranking systems for the time only 25 times. Bo owns 16 of those seasons, Moeller 3, LC 5, JH 1.

In the 9 years since LC retired, M has been ranked in the top 25 only 4 times and in the top 10 only once. This has been a bad decade for M football. The reasons for this 10 year drought of national relevance are well understood by any fan remotely involved.

The point is, this won't last. For those of you down on the program, having been born sometime after 1979, or even old enough to enjoy Bo's last years of success coupled with Gary Moeller's run in the top 10, the current period, appears to mark a permanent decline in M football.

It doesn't ..... trends to the mean and all of that. You can be rightly pissed off but if you think a head coaching change is warranted, and I don't think there are many of those present here, you're certified crazy. Harbaugh is the right guy for a program trending to the mean. Who would be an appropriate alternative? I can't think of one HC I'd rather have at M than JH, all things considered.

What he does with his assistants after the bowl game is up to him. I think it's useless to try to assess how good or bad they are from where we sit. I get it that some think they can assess all the coaches and there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to support strong criticism of some of them, including JH. IMO, it's still kind-of a waste of key strokes.

I watched Stanford club ND last night with an identical offense to what JH is running just with a good QB, an OL that can pass protect, average to decent receivers and an, even at 80% or less, very good running back in Bryce Love. M has issues with all of those things but the parts are there. I don't have a problem with JH's offensive philosophy and what he is building. If you are paying attention and not making silly unsupportable fly by assessments of M football in 2017, you'll see this.

TBH, I don't think M is going to do much better than having the occasional shot at the CFP, maybe 2-3X in a decade with a mode of 8-4 or 9-3, maybe outlying 11-12 regular season wins with the right schedule and a touch of luck that gets M into the CFP over that period. It won't be a decade long dominating team like Alabama is now or the Texas, OU, USC types of the past. That's because the playing field with respect to recruiting and roster limits is vastly different than those days. In the current decade, I thank Nick Saban's Alabama is an anomaly
that even I don't think ufm's osu will approach in urbz's remaining time there.

I also think it's hard to recruit to and run power schemes that can be decade long dominators of the CFB scene in a sea of spready offenses that feature the occasional super talented run and pass QBs. With 130 CFB teams most of them running spread to run or pass offenses, M is going to face one of those, by sheer numbers alone, with a lot of talent overall and get run off the field.

But make no mistake. There is and always will be in the case of M fans, lots of Hopeium. M football is on the right track if by measuring what "right track" means, you put it into the context of the last 62y of it.

[hodgkal]

"I think I have Stan beat by 2y as the oldest M fan poster in this forum. Not sure about Geezer. I'm almost positive I have the longest period of active fan involvement in M football going back to 1962. So, I consider myself well positioned to offer perspective on the 2017 season."

Jeff, I rarely post any more but still follow this forum and my passion for UM football continues. That said, I attended my first UM game in 1939! (my Dad was a UM letterman and had preferred seating back then). I began on this forum back in the Freep Forum days (late 1990s). If I recall correctly active posters, who remain today, included Hannibal, Jon LaFalce (Ghengis Jon), Rob Flowers, Linesman. Paul S.(a Buckeye) was in there pretty early also. I'm sure I've missed some.

Anyway, we all share one thing: a passion for Michigan football!

Anyway Jeff, you are doing a superb job keeping this forum going and your in-depth reporting and analyses of Wolverine football are valuable and much appreciated.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Thanks, Doc ...... we haven't forgot about you and glad you're reading my posts. Nobody else does and boy just think what they are missing!

BTW, update on Linesman (Rick Hall). He is on the event staff at the stadium and works in the student section. He stops by Doug's tailgates after he's finished with his duties. He's doing fine.

[Jeff Buchanan]

USA Today is reporting that Pep Hamilton is on AzSU's short list for their HC job vacated by Todd Graham. They want someone with NFL ties.

Other candidates include Kevin Sumlin and Teryl Austin.

Hamilton has had a bad run of late getting fired as the Colts OC, then as the Brown's QB coach before coming to M. Michigan QBs have a passer rating of 115.50 this year, compared with a passer rating of 138.25 last season. Total yards and passing TDs are also down year over year. Michigan’s passing attack was ranked 74th in the FBS by the S&P+ rankings prior to the Ohio State game yesterday.

I doubt he gets hired. AzSU can do better.

[Jeff Buchanan]

No Surprise. Via Instagram hours ago, Speight announces he'll transfer for his 5th year.

Thank you, Michigan. These past 4 years have been nothing short of spectacular. Enrolling in January of 2014 as a kid from Virginia i didn’t know what to expect. Four years later i leave a Michigan Man. The amazing memories with my teammates, playing under the best coaches in America, and enjoying everything that this wonderful university and town have to offer- what a ride. To the fans that stuck with us through thick and thin— thank you. To Coach Hoke for giving a kid with no offers a chance— thank you. To Coach Harbaugh for coming in and making me a better man and a better quarterback. For understanding this decision of mine and always having my back no matter what— thank you. I don’t know where next will be, and I’ll use these next four weeks to figure that out. i’m excited to keep pursuing my dreams in a new jersey, but will forever root for the boys wearing the winged helmet. Go blue!