Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[Hannibal]

More stat fun, this time found via mgoblog:




4.1 ypc after contact? This is for a guy who is adept at avoiding contact. Evans is the real deal. I can't wait to see what he does as a junior or a senior when he will likely have a good OL blocking for him and a good passing game to keep defenses honest.

[WM Wolverine]

Chris Evans was really impressive, needs to get a bit better at pass protection and he'll be a very fun running back to watch the next few seasons...

At WR, M has ALL true freshman or true sophomores and someone who might not be a Wolverine; true junior Grant Perry... Talent level is very high there and it's a position you can play early if you're talented enough...

Much of the same on the OL after Mason Cole (true Sr.), which he's playing left tackle because Grant Newsome (true Jr.) will likely get a redshirt this season...

Ben Bredeson & Michael Onwenu are projected starters as true sophomores, both should be starting guards... Cesar Ruiz will play as a true freshman, potentially start if he beats out Patrick Kugler (5th year Sr.)... Hopefully someone beats out Juwann Bushell-Beatty at right tackle (rs Jr. I think)...

If the OL can even punish the cupcakes this upcoming season, I'll be impressed by the coaching job HARBAUGH!!! and company have done.

[WM Wolverine]

Back seven on defense is similarly underclassman, true sophomores:

Devin Bush, Khaleke Hudson likely starters at LB/Viper...

David Long, LeVert Hill & Josh Metellus starting at DB.

Again, if this defense can be one of the better units in the B1G, I'll be really impressed by JH and staff and it'll mean even better things for '18, '19.

[Hannibal]

Perry has plead to a charge befitting the three game suspension that he has already faced. Unless he screws up again I don't see him missing any more time.

[Hannibal]

He is 5-0 in OT games. That's clean living. The rest of his one-score record..meh. I mean, I'd also count the loss to VT as a one-score loss (Pick-6 with 60s left on a desperation pass made it 14) as well as the 2013 B10 CG that came down to a 4th down with 5 minutes left. I can also think of numerous 1-score wins where OSU was in control.

Meyer's record in close games probably speaks to the importance of being able to actually run it late in tight games, something that we haven't been able to do. Just one more first down against MSU last year and one against Iowa this year and we win those games.

[iam416]

That's a good point. I'm thinking back to their 5 OT games:

2012: Purdue (TD, stop)
2012: Wisconsin (TD, stop)
2014: Penn State (TD/TD; TD/stop)
2016: Wisconsin (TD, stop)
2016: M (TD/TD; FG/TD)

So, that's 6 offensive OT drives and 6 TDs with none of them coming via a true "4 down-forced" type situation (against PSU they scored w/o getting to 4th). Not only that, but they won 4 of the 5 with the other team having the ball last and absolutely in a "4-down-forced" situation.

I can think of several one score games that OSU killed off including the 2012 game against M.

As for Chris Evans, yeah -- you really need to see him in the context of a full season/200+ carries. He's quick -- certainly quicker than, heh, DeVeon. His flashes are good. Elliot flashed when he was true frosh. Samuel flashed all the time his first two season. (DeMario McCall flashed last year). So, you'd rather have someone showing that potential than not, but the full season grind is definitely different from scrub time.

It will be really interesting to see how M's OL/Evans do against Florida. The Crocs, I believe, are super young on defense and I think their entire front 7 are Frosh/Sophomores. If M is as talented as people think then there's really no excuse not to run the ball against that team.

[hack]

Impossible to ignore Meyer's masterclass in risk management last November compared with Harbaugh's inconsistency. Michigan was the better team and it's hard to ever imagine OSU getting that favorable a whistle ever again, but still. Meyer knows what he's doing

[WM Wolverine]

M had one massive weakness being it's OL that 3 of it's opponents exploited to great extent. M could've/should've won any one of those 3 but came up short in all 3.

[Detroit Dan]

Running game is overrated, IMO. Brady-Alabama 2000, where better passing team beats better running team, is more the norm than the exception See SuperBowl 2017, college championship 2017. Superior running game didn't do squat for Crimson Tide against Cleamson.

New England demonstrates how you just need the running game to keep the defense honest occasionally.

[Detroit Dan]

Also, the running game was not really a factor in Michigan's 1997 national championship. Our pass defense, featuring the Heisman Trohpy winner, was the main feature of that team. And Brian Griese bailed us out of numerous 3rd and long situations with his passing, after failed run attempts.

[hack]

The Pepcat stats are really bothersome.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think the coaching strategy, in fact the game itself, in CFB is so different from the pro-game that you can't use the Patriots, among others, as a means of comparison such that one can assert the run game is over-rated.

The talent level on offenses in the NFL makes 14-10 games a thing of the past. That same talent level on defense makes a pounding running attack, ball possession game nearly impossible.

That is not the case at all in CFB. Within each game, there are a boat load of talent miss-matches even among the best CFB teams and especially against 2nd and 3rd tier teams that coaches can scheme against to develop an overall game strategy.

If there's a weakness in an opponent's edge control and after a few tries at that, you can run the ball that way, or likewise the opponent's defense isn't strong enough up front and you can get 4-5y a crack in the middle, every play, all day, that's how the offense will look.

I don't think there is any question that building an early lead with the higher risk/variance passing game, mixed with some big runs that wear down a defense then pounding the ball for the last 15 minutes of game time is a useful strategy at the college level.

Call it Lloyd ball or tressel ball but it's still around and can be a game winning strategy when it works. i.e., if you can possess by running the ball effectively.

I'd admit that if you've got a really talented dual threat college QB that is elusive enough on the ground to not get dinged and last an entire season, while at the same time being a 70% passer who can occasionally throw the long ball, your game strategy is going to feature that guy. Accordingly the offense is going to look different. It is going to be high scoring with the objective being to put distance between you and your opponent and force that opponent to try to keep up.

There's no question that Saban, meyer and Harbaugh, among others, understand the value of a dual threat QB who can run so, this does reflect a shift in CFB offensive philosophies of the past (i.e., offenses that can routinely score 45 points or more v. those whose purpose is to over-power and possess). Thant being acknowledged, my view is that that 4th quarter running game is still very important at the college level.

[Hannibal]

Also, the running game was not really a factor in Michigan's 1997 national championship. Our pass defense, featuring the Heisman Trohpy winner, was the main feature of that team. And Brian Griese bailed us out of numerous 3rd and long situations with his passing, after failed run attempts.

I don't think that team would fare as well now. Why? Because our relatively pedestrian offense wouldn't have been able to keep up with what is today a good spread offense. In Woody Hayes's days, it was about the running game. Then, for about 25 years through the 80s, 90s, and early oughts, it was about QB play. Now, I think that we are back to the previous paradigm of games being decided predominantly on the ground. All aspects of a game will always be important, but I think that the days of getting your ass kicked in the running game and winning by having your QB throw for 370 yards (Tom Brady, 2000 Orange Bowl) are largely over.

Look at last year's regular season losses as an example. In those two games, our opponents' passing attacks were putrid. Total of 23 for 51 for 190 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. We tallied 11 sacks in those games too. Iowa and OSU might have been better off spiking the ball instead of trying to run actual passing plays. We turned the opposing QBs into Nick Sheridan but they still beat us. Why? Because they ran it on us, either on designed running plays or J.T. Barrett scrambles.

The Pepcat stats are really bothersome.

Indeed, they are. They should have used him as a slot receiver instead. He would have prospered tremendously in that role.

[hack]

Cringe.

[Hannibal]

Cringe.