Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[The Oracle]

I'll take the over on 8, whatever the wager is.

[iam416]

Yeah, the real question is over 9.5 or not.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Safe bet is the under on 9.5.

[iam416]

I'd bet all totals with the assumption that 9 is the most likely outcome. I think 8 and 10 are roughly equal chance outcomes.

So, yes, I'd bet under 9.5 and feel pretty decent about it. The good news is that Wisconsin and OSU are at the end of the season giving M time to grow into their youth. The bad news is that they play a very beatable Florida team in the first game. I have a had time seeing M move the ball effectively against the kids on that defense. I also have a hard time see Florida move the ball effectively against anyone as they haven't done so since UFM was HC. So, I see a grinding game. If they played later then I'd back M. But they don't. Reminds me of the Utah opener in 2015.

[Hannibal]

Safe bet is the under on 9.5.

Under 8.5 is a safe bet.

[Detroit Dan]

My general feeling is that people still put too much emphasis on experience / seniority.

In the 2016 college football season, being young is the new normal

Excerpt:

We are five days away from the first game of the season and 10 days away from the best opening weekend in memory, and everywhere you look, youth is favored over experience... According to Phil Steele's math, Alabama has the least experience in the SEC. The Crimson Tide are ranked No. 1. Clemson has the least experience in the ACC. The Tigers are ranked No. 2. Ohio State has the least experience in the FBS -- No. 128 in your program -- and is ranked No. 6.

[Rocky Bleier]

Got to redshirt some of these freshmen next season:

http://mgoblog.com/content/michigan-depth-chart-class-0

[Hannibal]

My general feeling is that people still put too much emphasis on experience / seniority.

Excerpt:

I agree with this normally, but in Michigan's case the experience issue is a stark one, and it is most notable in the trenches, where experience matters the most.

[iam416]

The inexperience depends. In the case of Alabama and Ohio State, the inexperience is the result of sitting behind a gaggle of NFL players. The inexperience isn't, in any way, a comment on their ability.

If the inexperience is sitting behind shitty experience, well, then, you have a problem.

[Detroit Dan]

I agree with this normally, but in Michigan's case the experience issue is a stark one, and it is most notable in the trenches, where experience matters the most.

This will be interesting.

The defensive trench is no longer an area of concern, IMO. We bring back Hurst, Gary, Mone, Winovich and some others, plus we have 8 strong freshmen led by Solomon.

The offensive line is obviously an area of concern, but there's some good talent available. Ruiz should be ready to play immediately, and also Stueber (according to Lorenz).

[hack]

DL should be set barring injury, but Mone does need to step up, and let's have another few elite recruits before we consider that a stacked pipeline.

[Pasadena Blue]

unlike this past year when we knew the team would be good (even with a QB unknown), I think it's very hard to make predictions.

Talent level on the team has been upgraded at the expense of a serious downgrade in experience. This was no barrier to O-state in 2016. If Grant Newsome wasn't injured or was expected to be full-strength by 2017, I'd actually be downright optimistic.

As it stands, Florida will be a huge test. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we lose, but Talent's Utah comparison is fair. I also don't think a loss at the White Out is a guarantee.
Winning at Camp Randall is probably not going to happen, but I'm also not willing to concede a loss to the Bucks yet without seeing the team on the field.

I am pretty excited for next year. I think our defense will be considerably more athletic all around. I think adding spread elements to our O will help balance against a porous O-line, by allowing Speight to get the ball out to multiple targets quickly.

Despite all the unknowns, I am going to go for yet another 10-3 season with losses to Wisky + 2 of Gators/Bucks/PSU. This time we pulverize the bowl opponent.

Unfortunately, 2018 may also be another 10-3 season (given Sparty/Bucks on the road), so JH probably will not be able to break the 10-win ceiling or make it to the playoffs until 2019 --- that's what makes the fail at the end of this year especially painful, and why JH was so bitter after the O-state loss.

[Detroit Dan]

Unfortunately, 2018 may also be another 10-3 season (given Sparty/Bucks on the road)

[Pasadena Blue]

I'm not too worried about Sparty in 2018. The discrepancy in recruiting is too great. We beat them handily on the road this year, and the disparity is only going to grow over the next 2 years, by all indications.

[WM Wolverine]

M will be very young and inexperienced enough to lose to half the teams on its schedule (6 potential losses). I'm not optimistic, I'm at 8-wins till I see them on the field and I could go to a 7 or 10 after seeing them vs Florida... Too many question marks on the offensive line and back seven on defense...

I'm worried about Penn State in the short-term (next 2-years), they should be a very solid 9-to-11 win program.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... I think adding spread elements to our O will help balance against a porous O-line, by allowing Speight to get the ball out to multiple targets quickly.......

From what I've seen, Speight doesn't have a quick release. In fact it is downright slow. The two factors behind this are (1), his mechanics and (2) receivers getting cleanly into routes.

I'm not sure adding spread elements is going to improve offensive efficiency as much as we would like it to improve or that we may be thinking it will improve.

I thought Speight got pretty conservative trying to make tight throws into tight coverage as BT play began and the skill levels of the defenders he was facing improved. Your QB has to make those plays if your going to run these spread concepts and get guys into space.

Until that happens on the regular we shouldn't get too optimistic about the offense.