Michigan vs. FSU, Orange Bowl, 8pm, ESPN, Game Day - Post Game Discussion

[Jeff Buchanan]

#1 ........ osu gave M's OL problems blitzing from the LB and S positions. Since there was no UFR from Brian, it's hard to say what actually happened. Kalis got hammered or missed his assignments more times than I want to count. Shiano found some interior weaknesses - thought to be a relative strength of M"s OL - that he exploited effectively leading to what I thought were the yips for Speight later in the game.

#2 Dalvin Cook is probably the best back outside of Barkley and Wadley that M has faced. FSU's OL is going to have it's hands full trying to get Barkely to the second level where he is explosive.

#3 Auden Tate is a stud. Lewis and even Stribbling are up to the task. M has had some issues with shifty guys like Nyqwan Murray that get open due to a play call that sets up a mismatch. Doesn't happen a lot though.

#4 Aside from samuel bolting to the EZ to win the game in 2OT, M has not given up much inside the Red Zone. Overall, FSU's offense is a good match up for Down Brown's D ....... think about that for a moment. When was the last time in the age of spready, power teams, spready teams at all for that matter, that you felt good about M's defense v a Spread team? Never? That would be correct.

[*JD*]

The game isn't on New Year's Day? Lame.

[UMStan White]

None of the games are on NYD as NYD falls on NFL Sacred Sunday

[Jeff Buchanan]

Posters about the Internet - the ones that have a clue - are taking a position that FSU is a boarder line top 4/CFP contender pretty much like M. This is a good team. Fans taking them lightly and predicting a big win for M are foolish.

FSU lost to Clemson by 3, NCSU by two and got rolled by Louisville on a day that was just a good one for Lamar. They are two losses away from being in the CFP. Sound familiar? It should.

I still like some of the match-ups though. Their secondary is prone to getting confused on coverages. M's secondary isn't. FSU has issues on passing downs if their standard downs don't move the chains and while they are good at that on Delvin Cook's legs, M has a good chance of forcing FSU's offense into third and long. Brown likes those situations.

[AlabamAlum]

I think it'll be a good game. I like M to take it, though.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The other thing I like is that it is the lead NY6 bowl game, on Friday night before a long weekend. Of the NY6 games, this might get the highest TV ratings.

There's already some smack talk from a grad assistant on Jimbo's staff about hosting Harbaugh in Florida after all his "antics" on the recruiting trail trying to steal FL talent. He'll get taught a lesson. OK.

[iam416]

Lol @ "the ones that have a clue" -- FSU isn't a borderline top 4 team.

They lost to UNC, not NCS. The lost to UNC and Clemson at home. They barely beat NCS -- needing a TD in the final 4 minutes to win by 4 after being outgained -- and Dalvin Cook being generally stopped cold.

They barely won at Miami -- a blocked PAT in the 4th Q kept the score at 20-19.

The question is really straightforward -- do you think the ACC is at least comparably strong to the B10? If you do, then ok -- the number of close games/losses to teams like UNC, NCS and Miami are acceptable. The close game against Clemson is impressive and you dismiss the Louisville game as ages ago.

But, if you think the B10 is considerably better then it's not close. If you think the ACC is crapola, then those games are uninspiring: UNC (lost to Georgia); Miami (lost to ND); NCS (lost to ECU); Louisville (obviously exposed). Further, VT got boat-raced by Tennessee.

I'm really skeptical of the ACC. So, I take issue with those "that have a clue" if the "in the know" position is that FSU is really good. They're a borderline top 10 team. M is, IMO, a top 4 team. If M's OL play doesn't fuck them sideways then they'll win this game comfortably.

[AlabamAlum]

HORSESHIT!

[Mainevent]

I don't take any team with Dalvin Cook lightly. That said, I like the matchup for UM. Francois got pounded in several of the games I saw, so UM should be able to get pressure.

(Though, FSU may look at the pressure teams got against UM and say the same)

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just the facts .......

FSU is the #9 overall team according to S&P+. There's a close grouping in 2-5 (osu, M, Washington and Clemson) a drop off in the teams ranked 6-10 but (ESPN) FPI's are within a 1.2 pt. range or virtually indistinguishable.

It might have been a reach to say FSU is boarderline CFP material but not that great of one.

Just for comparison, the FSU offense is #6, defense #18, and special teams #85. Ohio State offense is #12, the Iowa defense is #12, Indiana STs #98.

The FSU offense is efficient .... rushing #6 and passing #12. QB, Deondre Francois is better than jtb as a passer completing 60.6% of his passes averaging 8.4 ypco and recording 18 TDs with 6 INTs. If there is one thing missing from making osu much more dangerous it's that jtb is an average to below average passer. Dalvin Cook is better than weber and samuel combined and M couldn't beat osu. So, there is that kind of "knowing" that I subscribe to in throwing some cold water on the thought that abounds at mgoboards of an easy win for M. It's won't be.

Some nitpicking on your part, talent, but fair.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan is favored by 6.5 now over FSU.

S&P+ has Michigan by 11.8 and with a 75% shot at victory.

That's all nice.

I still don't trust Speight to not do something that will

1. Get FSU all charged up and turn momentum back to them (like multiple, back to back 3 and outs when moving the chains to score a TD to get score separation would otherwise seal the deal).
   
2. F-up an opportunity to score a TD from inside FSU's 10yl that would be a dagger blow.
   
3. Over throw/miss critical deep balls that, if made, will force FSU to keep their Ss out of the box.

[hack]

Speight is going to miss some throws, probably. He did that with regularity. Is he gonna fumble inside the ten? He did it once all season, so I expect not. Is he gonna throw a pick? Well, he threw four all year that were his fault. I expect not.

[WingsFan]

FSU straight up. Easy money. Speight blows outside Ann Arbor.

I expect the Michigan defense to keep it close, that is unless they are not looking forward to the NFL draft. Francois shouldn't throw for much, just need a fairly big run or two in a rather low scoring game.

[froot loops]

I thought only SEC teams were supposed to use the NFL Draft excuse.

[WingsFan]

Heh