Michigan vs. FSU, Orange Bowl, 8pm, ESPN, Game Day - Post Game Discussion

[SeattleLionsFan]

I think 4 B1G teams in the top 7 are too many.

[Mainevent]

i would expect the committee to jump Wiscy ahead of Michigan if they need to if Wash or Clemson lose. I don't see them doing the same for PSU though.

[iam416]

That's where I am. I think M needs PSU to win + loss by Washington or Clemson.

[WingsFan]

All right this is my last post on the subject, this one is short. WM Wolverine has pointed out multi penalties on the Samuel run before the JTB 4th down run. Clearly a facemask happened, as well as many other non-calls.

The worst injustice of football officiating. Have a good day!

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mhG1Pp6SJM"]Bobby Sagers and Kevin Schwarzel Fix Ohio State / Michigan Game: Disgrace to the Rivalry - YouTube[/ame]

[Tom W]

The officiating seemed shady to me. But....

Amid all the noise, the following seems to be lost: did Michigan know who the officials would be BEFORE (and how long before) the game? Did they have objections? and how were they addressed?

Lousy officiating seems to be everywhere today- I'm not sure if it's laziness/incompetence or just that people rely too much on replay, every game is broadcast in HD or everyone feels the need to go onto the internet.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Talk around the CFB community has Wisky/PSU as a winner play-in for the Rose, the ACC CCG as a winner play in to the #4 spot in CFP for Clemson, PAC 12 CCG as Utah playing for the Rose (if they beat Washington). Yeah, I get all the variations on this scenario.

I think it's a stretch but when you read arguments for this scenario to get M to the CFB as #4, it's not entirely absurd.

I've read AA's short takes elsewhere suggesting that UA would crush M. I tend to agree with that on the well established weaknesses in M's OL to the extent that M isn't going to score a bunch. But UA's offense, as AA has also pointed out has lots of weaknesses. The most exploitable by M is probably QB Jalen Hurts.

I could see a slug fest, low scoring game with the winner decided by the spot ...... er ..... whoever makes the most mistakes.

Way too early to talk about this seriously as M has to have some pretty amazing things happen for them to then get matched up with Bama. Fun to think about though.

[iam416]

If either Clemson or Washington lose, then it's anyone's guess. I think M gets in ahead of Penn State, but I'm still not sure about Wisconsin.

If both Clemson AND Washington lose, then I think M is heading for a rematch with Ohio State.

It would seem Alabama is locked into the Peach Bowl. Ohio State is locked into the Fiesta Bowl. OSU will play Clemson/Washington/Michigan. Alabama will play Washington/Michigan/Wisconsin.

[iam416]

Odds to WIN the CFP:

Alabama 5/8
Ohio State 11/4
Clemson 6/1
Washington 10/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Michigan 25/1
Penn State 50/1
Colorado 66/1

The odds for Alabama and Ohio State pretty much assume they are in the CFP. There is no "not making it" factored into those odds, IMO. Alabama is a prohibitive favorite. Ohio State is a clear #2 because they are assumed to be in. If, e.g., Clemson beats VT, then I think Clemson's odds will be very close to OSU. Right now, though, they have to account for the 20% chance (gambling odds) that Clemson loses to VT (Clemson ML is over -400).

So, what that tells me is that Vegas thinks Wisconsin is in over Michigan. First, they think M is a better team than Wisconsin. If both teams made the CFP, M would have better odds of winning it than Wisconsin. So, in a vacuum, M's odds should be higher than Wisconsin's. Second, Wisconsin is barely favored over Penn State. They have roughly a 55-60% chance to win (-130 to -135 w/o juice).

So, the Vegas guys are saying this -- M/Wisconsin is basically a coin flip to win the CFP -- slightly favoring Wisconsin (by +0.5%). Wisconsin is roughly +5-7% above a coin flip to win the B10. So the future odds account for the differences in quality and basically say: if Wisconsin wins, they're in; if Wisconsin loses, Michigan is in.

Looking at Penn State confirms this. PSU is twice as unlikely to win the CFP as M. But PSU is roughly 45% to win the B10. They're basically saying PSU won't get in.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Good info ...... On Saturday around 7p, I felt M (1) had no chance for the CFP and (2) probably didn't deserve it.

Upon further review, they do have a chance. Not sure about deserving it. Certainly the players deserve it. If I agree with one thing JH said post game it was that the team did everything it possibly could to win that game and play for the BT Crown in Indy.

But I justdon't think the team is as well rounded as it needs to be in comparison to say, Clemson, which has got an offense, if not turnover prone, to match a very good D. I don't follow Washington so, can't comment comparatively.

I agree with almost all of the comments that M is as good if not better than Wisconsin and beat them HTH. I don't think there is any question considering the entire body of work that M is better than PSU. CU? M beat them.

I think the Vegas odds-makers, figuring in the variables for M, PSU, Wisky, Washington and CU to win the NC, fits very closely with what our eyeball test tells us for all those teams to get there.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Clemson or UDub lose and it's possible

[AlabamAlum]

Clemson or UDub lose and it's possible

Both of which are very possible. U-Dub and The Buffs aren't even the best two teams in the Pac-12 right now. I think that's USCw.

[iam416]

M is in, IMO, if you get 2 of 3: Colorado, VT and Penn State. Those aren't great odds -- probably about 25-30%. But they are significant. That's the probability of a TD underdog winning.

I did see that Holcutt thinks 4 through 7 are close. He went out of his way to say OSU was way ahead of PSU to prepare people for the likelihood that OSU goes ahead of PSU. But he said 4-7 are close. That suggests to me that PSU maybe be more of a threat to jump M than Vegas gives them credit it for.

I have a hard time seeing it. I guess you can say that PSU was playing walk-on LBs -- and they were -- a total trainwreck. You could look at McSorely as being considerably better these days. He is. You could look at recent common opponents -- PSU thrashed Iowa and MSU (albeit, that game was waaaay closer than the score). M, well, they did not.

But, at the end of the day, M will have 3 home wins against top 10 teams. Penn State will have 1 home win and 1 neutral win against top 10 teams. Both teams lost a close game to shitbirds on the road. Both teams lost a game to a top 5 team on the road. Penn State would have won the Conference; M would have won the HtH by 39 fucking points.

So, man, I still think M is in over PSU if that's the choice, but it may not be quite as clear as I thought.

Also, so much of it depends on how the game goes. If PSU wins by 28 then I think OHIO STATE should start to get nervous.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well no way do three B1G get in...so there will be injustice if there are upsets this weekend and PSU win...

[AlabamAlum]

I hope M gets in because as I may have mentioned, Bama would bludgeon Michigan. It would be a baby seal clubbing. People would be turning the game off in the 2nd quarter to watch a 2011 Gilmore Girls re-run. In fact, the Gilmore Girls would keep the game closer than M. This would be rated G for guillotine.

Turn the sound up so you can hear the satisfying sound of M's skull crunching under Bama's jackboot. It makes a pleasing sound unto Lord Saban. Amen.

[THE_WIZARD_]

::: pops popcorn...waits:::