Michigan @ osu, Game day and Post Game Discussion (Closed)

[hack]

If Michigan can run between the tackles early, and keep it up and turn it into a TOP game, that's great. I suspect that on D though, OSU will be able to move the ball. Will have to force OSU to settle for FGs.

[Rocky Bleier]

The speculation concerning tomorrow's starting quarterback reminds me of the 1979 game. Does anyone remember who started for U-M that day without looking it up on Wikipedia? Hint below:










He has a son on the current team.

[Jeff Buchanan]

John Wangler?

[Rocky Bleier]

No, Wangler came in in relief. This kid was a freshman option QB from Plymouth Salem.

[The Oracle]

All you old mfers.

[Rocky Bleier]

You wait. It was just freaking yesterday...

[Hannibal]

Wait -- so both QBs from the 1979 game have a son on the team?

[Rocky Bleier]

Yep.

[Hannibal]

I have absolutely no earthly clue who that other guy is. Same last name?

[Rocky Bleier]

Yes.

[Rocky Bleier]

Answer is here. It was Earl Bruce's first year as head coach at OSU. Bo tried to surprise OSU with the QB change. It didn't work. Wangler and Anthony Carter burned the Schmuck's secondary, but special teams let us down again, as it did so often back then.


http://www.cleanvideosearch.com/medi...hitCount=15169

[Jeff Buchanan]

OK, some more fancy stats ...... uh, no.

By this time in the season, there is so much data that I think it pretty much a waste of time to try to coalesce it into some meaningful predictive sort of thing. But the eyeball test (which happens to be supported by most of the fancy stats) says:

Neither offense is that great, Bob. Clearly, barrett gives osu a slight edge if Speight plays and can actually throw the ball crisply, probably a big edge in creating favorable down and distance situations for osu compared to M if JOK plays.

Both defenses are GOOD. osu surprisingly as the season comes to an end; M has been that good since early. Edge to osu in ball-hawking and turnovers. Surprisingly, again, advantage to osu in defensive efficiency. I suspect that's because Brown's D, esp.early but not against IU and you would have suspected that, tends to give up a lot of chunk plays between the 20s. I'm kind of discounting the value of that particular S&P+/FEI and calling M's D >> osu's.

I don't get all the fancy stats that generally show M's STs to be really bad and osu's not a whole lot better. That does not match my eyeball test for M and I just don't watch enough osu football to know about their ST unit. I think a lot of that has to do with the overall mishmash of data and the high variance (shit and luck happens) that is always present with ST play.

So, what does all that mean for Saturday. talent and I are very closely aligned in our assessment of M. The game will have an entirely different character if O'Korn plays and that includes the point at which Speight, if he does start, takes a big hit. My view is that M CAN win a 10-7 type contest.

OTH, unless Speight, and this assumes he's close to 100%, runs the offense like Maryland Speight and not like Iowa Speight (and I'm talking about before he was hurt), M's O isn't likely to win a game that turns out to be a 38 - 41 type affair. Getting Speight to the level where he can have a great game requires a heap of good JuJu to happen and bad JuJu held at bay.

Therefore, I prefer to see if M can just run the ball well v. an osu front that has shown some vulnerability to offenses executing the shit out of run blocking per play. This isn't about scheme, X's and Os, tricky stuff to fool the opponent. It's about Jimmy's and Joe's lining up, kicking some butt and executing assignments and technique about as perfectly as can be done.

Someone (Rocky) has opined that M has it's best chance to steal this one by turning The Game into a TOP game. I'd expand on that a bit. M has to damn efficient in moving the chains with the run game and a few easy pitch and catch type plays to keep the Ss honest. It has to score when it's inside the osu 40 most of the time, inside the 20, all the time ...... and that may only be twice. So that amounts to (ding, ding fancy stats).....

• Success Rate: it looks at how often a team got 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down. M ranks 41st overall (44.5%) and, is comfortably above the national average (40.9%). osu ranks 14th overall (48.6%). That's a pretty impressive number and is due in large part to that slippery jtb and his frustrating ability to have the play defenses well yet he make plays. IOW, osu is able to get the yardage they need to call whatever they want half the time.

To win The Game, M has to meet or exceed that number AND/OR, keep jtb from making plays. To me, this isn't an and/or calculation. Speight or not, M is not likely to be more efficient on offense playing v osu's excellent D. So it comes down to kicking some butt on D to achieve the more likely decrease in efficiency for osu's O. If this isn't the game to do it in, it never will be. Per Brain in an earlier UFR last week for IU said this:

......... Charlton versus Prince should be a big Michigan advantage. So too true freshman Michael Jordan against Glasgow or Hurst. Michigan is more or less healthy; they're super experienced; they don't have weak spots like OSU does. OSU has a couple of top notch players; it shouldn't be enough to keep OSU from getting swarmed. If it is, Michigan loses.

So, there you have it, an amalgam of eyeball and fancy stats. Can't get any better than that. I'll offer two scenarios for this game so I can wriggle out of any question about my usually excellent pre-game analysis.

(1) M's D is that good and holds osu well below its current Efficiency mark that stands right about 50%. M's STs do something GOOD and M's efficiency rate hits enough above its current rate of about 46% so as to produce a game where osu has to play from behind. M wins that kind of contest 24-20.

(2) The appearance of Speight in this game amounts to nothing more than Iowa Speight. osu's STs do something GOOD and M is playing from behind most of time despite short periods of them being ahead by a point or three. osu wins that kind of contest 17-13.

NB: this is not going to be a 3 score blow-out either way and if it is, you can all pile on and call my pre-game analysis whatever bad things you choose to call it.

FUCK osu.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Answer is here. It was Earl Bruce's first year as head coach at OSU. Bo tried to surprise OSU with the QB change. It didn't work. Wangler and Anthony Carter burned the Schmuck's secondary, but special teams let us down again, as it did so often back then.

Hewlett ....... I would never have guessed that in a million years. Guess he was the guy to run the triple option, Wangler wasn't

Great video ...... how enjoyable the simple presentation was back then, missing all the dumb ass shit they cram into a broadcast now. Notice how Keith Jackson's play-by-play commentary was so perfectly limited and timed in it's scope. His greatest asset was silence before the snap followed by precise commentary that allowed you to be blindfolded and still know exactly what happened. I think that was Bill Flemming doing color in the background of that video.

The shit show that is on radio and TV today is mostly unwatchable. I frequently mute and when I'm forced to, I have to listen to Brandstander and Dierdorf on the radio constantly talking over each other. The game moves too fast for both of them and what they are asked to fill in with is just impossible for them.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hmmmmm, so while I was writing my prediction. Brian at mgoblog posted his. I found this right off the bat and direct contradiction to what I said so, he watches a lot more football than I do and with a very competently analytic eye.

KEY MATCHUP: JIM HARBAUGH and FRIENDS versus OHIO STATE'S ABILITY TO GET THEIR RUN FITS. This is not a matchup Michigan wins by out-talenting the opposition. Outsmarting is a possibility if the previous two manball games are any indication. Harbaugh will throw the kitchen sink at this defense.


He also predicts an osu win: 18-13. I think it's close like that too but I am much less biased than he is so, my prediction will turn out to be right.

[jaadam4]

It'll be a 2 score win for blue.