Michigan @ osu, Game day and Post Game Discussion (Closed)

[iam416]

Ohio State hasn't really been running much inverted veer these days. They did a little against MSU -- with some real success. But, mostly it's been IZ and QB Leads.

I don't think they can win running in a phone booth, so they have to test the edge. So, I do expect them to run a little more inverted veer. I also expect/hope that they back to the inverted veer/IZ option play. I don't think Samuel has gotten much more than 1 or 2 times all season on that little short pitch/pass to the motion guy running basically IV. They have started to use that motion action as a constraint on IZ, but not a whole lot.

Anyone who watched them in 2014 saw them run Marshall in motion as an IV option all the time -- it was truly a triple option play where Marshall was a real threat, Elliot was a real threat and JTB was a real threat.

That's faded. Houston still does it, though!

[iam416]

And Brian/You are correct -- the game w/in the game is how you scheme/block the play. Simple adjustments can fuck up a defense. Last week, OSU started folding G/C on some IZ plays and had some real success. Same play blocked slightly differently.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've said this before. M doesn't have to run a wide open Harbaughffense to win this game. What M has to do is play it's offense to its strength and that is the D and STs.

M's D is in a position to win decisively at the LOS. Taco and Glasgow can dominate Prince and true Freshman Jordan on osu's OL. That put's jtb under considerable pressure to make plays. He can do that but is less likely to on 3rd and long. So, obviously, put him in those positions as often as possible by putting Peppers in a position where he is able to keep barrett in check.

Credit to Brian on a lot of the foregoing posts that were pulled from his UFR, M D v. IU. The frustrating part about all of this that gives rise to some hope for an M win is that the script is probably not going to play out at all like I'd personally hope for. You can look at all the fancy stats, all the film and come away with confidence that for Michigan, The Game is entirely winnable. But for the unfathomable, The Game never seems to go by the script.

[iam416]

The mgo take on OSU's offense is mostly spot-on.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.......I don't think they can win running in a phone booth, so they have to test the edge. So, I do expect them to run a little more inverted veer. I also expect/hope that they back to the inverted veer/IZ option play. I don't think Samuel has gotten much more than 1 or 2 times all season on that little short pitch/pass to the motion guy running basically IV. They have started to use that motion action as a constraint on IZ, but not a whole lot.

Anyone who watched them in 2014 saw them run Marshall in motion as an IV option all the time -- it was truly a triple option play where Marshall was a real threat, Elliot was a real threat and JTB was a real threat.......

Correct.

I do like jtb and samuel running the kind of play you suggest (the triple option sort of thing). Sure, weber aint elliot but he's as good if not better than Redding, maybe not as good as Wadly (a good thing!).

Like I think JH has a good deal of the offensive playbook he'll bring out for the first time v. osu, probably involving Peppers, McDoom and Evans, I've got no doubt whatsoever that ufm will have an equal number of plays that M's D has never seen ........ but not blocked anywhere nearly as well as those kinds of plays were blocked in osu's NFL ready OL in 2015.

Great chess match coming up between Don Brown and ufm, who let it slip in his presser yesterday, that he's been thinking about how to defend osu since he was hired ....... then backed down almost immediately with the rejoinder, "well, of course we think about all of our regular season games a lot." While I think Brown has done a pretty good job against the spread, we're talking about coach meyer who is probably the best offensive football mind of the last 10 years.

[Hannibal]

But for the unfathomable, The Game never seems to go by the script.

When OSU is favored it pretty much does. We haven't beaten them as an underdog since 1996.

[Mainevent]

Yeah, even with a healthy Speight this was always going to be a tough task to get one in Ohio. M's OL has taken some backwards steps the past couple of weeks and OSU's D has a lot of talent. M's going to need to get some big plays from the D or special teams (scoring plays or directly leading to scoring plays) to win this thing. I expect OSU to win and if O'korn plays most of the snaps it would take an early Harbaugh Christmas miracle to pull out a win.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I got this from a poster's comments in response to Seth's Fi, Fi, Fo, Film pieces he does, this one on OSU. Maybe it's that I just really paid attention more but this one is particularly good in pointing out how well ufm schemes for an opponent and adjusts to what the opponent's D is doing.

This poster's remarks are almost clairvoyant or prescient. If Brown goes down the path we have every reason to believe he will (play very aggressively), you can see why this is a high risk, high reward strategy. You have to wonder if JH will let Brown do this or will he dial him back a bit to a more Durkin like approach? The chess match aspect of these two coaches is just fascinating to me.

I know I won't be able to pick out what's happening live - we'll see it in the UFR - and I am absolutely positive the two or three in the broadcast booth won't no jack shit. Regardless, still looking forward to it and trying to pick out what I can real time.

Mark my words: If it becomes about matchups, Meyer wins an ugly blowout. Not because our guys aren't good, but because Meyer will attack, and if Brown lets him then that's counting on Stribling to make a solo tackle in the flat. Durkin was happy to make it about matchups and got destroyed. The theme of this entire FFFF is that Meyer is second to none at creating the matchups he wants. He adjusts quickly and adapts to whatever you do to counter. Seth calls them the Borg for a reason.

Brown does not run a read-and-react defense, precisely because that's what coaches like Meyer feast on. He shoots first and hopes to make the offense adjust to him. If it works, it will be by far the most effective counterpunch to Meyer's shenanigans. If it doesn't, Meyer will have Samuel with the ball vs. Stribling in acres of space. But the one thing Brown won't do, contrary to his presser, is put athlete on athlete and see what happens. He is going to blitz the crud out of that offensive line and try to blow up plays before they can develop.

More than any other game, this is going to be a scheme chess match, but I strangely don't think it'll be close. One coach will win decisively. There will be negative plays. The question is whether the positive ones go for 3-5 yards or 30-50. If it's 3-5, you can cause the OSU offense to misfire -- 1st and 10, 2nd and 6, 3rd and 9, and now Barrett's forced to pass out of trouble against Lewis/Hill/Thomas/Stribling. A bad drive will be something like 1st and 10, 2nd and 12, touchdown.

[Rocky Bleier]

Rocky is there any way you can go back to having a pretty girl as your avatar and some positive outlook for M? I know there's not many M fans in the Michigan forum anymore (because they left) but getting you back would be nice.

What? I've been a Michigan fan since Bo's first year. I have positive outlook for M, but not this weekend. The future is bright, but with Meyer having a 3 yr. head start on Harbaugh, and cleaning up every year in recruitiing, I wouldn't be surprised if Urban retires with the series tied.

[BlueInCostaRica]

Before The Game, Harbaugh will say something like what Herb Brooks told the 1980 US Olympic team. Substitute "football" for "hockey" and it's perfect:

"Great moments are born from great opportunity, and that's what you have here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here tonight. One game; if we played them ten times, they might win nine. But not this game, not tonight. Tonight, we skate with them. Tonight we stay with them, and we shut them down because we can. Tonight, we are the greatest hockey team in the world.
You were born to be hockey players—every one of you, and you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great hockey team the Soviets have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!"

[froot loops]

It sounds like Speight is a go for the game on Saturday.

[iam416]

On the betting front, OSU is roughly a 58/42 betting favorite. Yet, the line has dropped from a clean 7 to 6' or 7 @ +110. Those are bet-inducing numbers. Setting the line at under a TD or as a plus bet at a TD is meant to get people to bet on the favorite. And they're already betting on the favorite.

Lesson: Vegas loves M +6' (and so do I). They want as much money opposite that number as they can get.

Speight will play. OSU won't be able to run. It'll be up to OSU's defense to keep them afloat in this one.

[paul daugherity]

No offense, but after the last 13 years, and particularly after last year's beatdown, we'll believe that after we see it.

[Wellington_beefhouser]

What? I've been a Michigan fan since Bo's first year. I have positive outlook for M, but not this weekend. The future is bright, but with Meyer having a 3 yr. head start on Harbaugh, and cleaning up every year in recruitiing, I wouldn't be surprised if Urban retires with the series tied.

I mean, how bout the good looking girl avatar thing though?

[iam416]

No offense, but after the last 13 years, and particularly after last year's beatdown, we'll believe that after we see it.

Yeah, I get that. But this is probably the biggest mismatch M will have in DL v OL in a long time. I think you guys will be on the other end of it next season, but that's for next season. I could be wrong, but I do think it's an objectively strong position.

I'm pinning my hopes on OSU's defense being able to slow the Death Star.