Maryland @ Michigan, Game Day and Post Game Discussion

[The Oracle]

Well people here think O'korn is the better option for our team based on what they've seen, so who the fuck knows....

[iam416]

I'm not sure how the positions are related other than being bad. Anyway, I've said too much on this thread, do I'll see myself out.

[WingsFan]

I think the O'Korn conjecture has stopped

[Pasadena Blue]

yes ... Speight has shown enough to shut down that discussion.

[Pasadena Blue]

I guess we're in a good spot when a 17 point win vs a ranked team isn't something we can be happy about.

No one said anything about a blowout, but no one was exactly worried, except the select few around here. Montez has pretty much been as good as Luifau, but that's too objective for these parts.

hmm... seems to me you are changing the point of discussion. No one said anything about not being happy with a 17 point win ... the point was that getting 45 points was not running up the score on Leavitt.

Anyways, I give up ... surrender cobra here.

[The Oracle]

Hmm. I though the point was that a coach being familiar with a JH offense made for a blowout to be impossible.

I give up too...I guess I understand where dumb discussions come from when there isn't much to bitch about.

[Hannibal]

Hanni, the opening line is M by 29.5. If I take that line or predict an M score of say 43-13 am I a blithering idiot?

No. I expect us to cover.

[edindetroit]

Fuck ME???? Fuck YOU!!!!

You guys need to get a room.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hmm......I give up too...I guess I understand where dumb discussions come from when there isn't much to bitch about.

It's a lot like this forum in June.

[Detroit Dan]

Fuck ME???? Fuck YOU!!!!

Thank you! It's a game, and we're here to have fun.

[Jeff Buchanan]

One of my favorite write ups is out: S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM vs. Maryland.

M is favored in 4/5 of the major 5 and 23/25 of the sub categories.

There's a way to use a formula to predict a score from this stuff but it is beyond me. There's usually some math or statistics major who'll do it and if he does, I'll post the predicted scored based on the 5 factors.

Cliff Notes:

On offence (M O vs Maryland D), M has an efficiency rating of 52.1% (the national average is 40%

On defense (MD O vs M D, MD) has an efficiency rating of 24.9%

FEI does efficiency ratings differently than ESPN and I think the ESPN efficiency numbers are easier to interpret so, I'll trhow them out to compare. 86% of the time when M has the ball it puts itself in a position to move the chains. Maryland's offense does that 60% of the time.

But, the Five Factors numbers let you look at PPP or points per play both on standard downs and passing downs. According to Five Factors, these numbers reflect how explosive an offense is in those two settings and MD is more explosive than M is (1.01 ppp/1.33pp).

This has held true for M when it faced Colorado, PSU, Wisconsin, RU, MSU and that certainly was not predictive of the outcomes. You have to be careful interpreting these numbers IsoPPP considers successful plays only, of which there are not a great number against the UM defense. Moreover, the success rate for UM is about 70% greater than Maryland.

What does this mean vs. MD? It means, as usual, big chunk plays can be a problem when you, as a fan, watch these games and the eyeball test says exactly that. I'm not convinced it's Brown's aggressive scheme, maybe partly, but I think missed tackles contribute to this more and that was certainly the case in the MSU game. When you get that sinking, nervous stomach feeling, reassure yourself opponents are going to break a few plays against M's D but that usually has little to do with the outcome of the game. One of the prime reasons for that, something none of this kind of analysis shows, is the critical interplay between all facets of the game ...... O, D, ST, field position, time remaining, how the officials are calling the game, what's in the minds of the players on both sides of the field, all of that and some of it doesn't reduce that well to stats; some of it does (e.g., down and distance decision point matrices).

[WM Wolverine]

No reason it should be close.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm thinking 40+ for M, 10+ for MD.

The thing that has impressed me about JH's offense is that it is so incredibly varied. He does all kinds of stuff with his backs, his TE's, Darboh and, I hope Grant Perry is back. Big factor in the slot that I don't think Peppers is. I also want to see Peppers throw it. Against MSU, where M settled for a Kenny Allen FG to go up 30-17. On 3rd down and 8 (goal at 10), Peppers is in the wild cat. He absolutely makes the right read on the MLOS who is crashing inside and keeps taking it outside. He gets eaten up by a S that was unblocked. The S lets Chesson (?) go. If he takes a look just to his right, Chesson (I think it is) is wide open for a TD if he throws it. I can't imagine that it wasn't drawn up that way but Peppers just didn't take the throw and kept instead. Beautiful play design. This is what I'm talking about with how hard this offense is to defend and that's without a run threat from the QB.

Heard some rumblings that Mone could but won't play (rolled ankle). Same with Glasgow also nursing an injury.

[WM Wolverine]

That softens the interior D-line significantly.

[jaadam4]

I'd much rather Mone and Glasgow take a breather against Maryland to be healthy for Iowa.