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**klondike** · October 25, 2016, 09:48 AM

I find it hard to believe a team that has played so poorly and so clueless could get their sh!# together for one game after five losses. Guess it is possible but highly unlikely.

**Pasadena Blue** · October 25, 2016, 12:04 PM

such an avalanche of negativity for Sparty and positivity for us in the media ... makes me worried...

**Jeff Buchanan** · October 25, 2016, 02:11 PM

Ecky Pting does this review of S&P + Five Factors Match-up Comparisons with M's upcoming opponents during game week. In the Cliff Notes version, he says this:

The IsoPPP advantages of Sparty in standard downs and passing plays will mean UM must be on the lookout defensively in order to contain explosive plays, particularly on Standard Downs. This is not necessarily a weakness so much as a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. It doesn't happen often - it just seems that UM's secondary will need to continue to be on its toes in blitz situations. Judging from the PFF numbers I've seen regarding QB ratings vs. Stribling and Lewis, however, QB's would do better by just throwing the ball out of bounds than anywhere near the U-M CB's.

In general, however, I would say this matchup looks as one might expect rolling into Piscataway .... err... East Lansing. Personally, I would love to see a complete annihilation of the Scarlet Knights ...... err......Spartans, for reasons I will leave to you, dear reader......

Most observers have been saying all along that M's D (Don Brown's deployment of it) has the potential to give up big plays. We're not talking about the singular first down run. That's going to happen, hopefully not a lot. We're talking about serious big runs or pass plays for TDs. Hold those down in this game and M wins handily.

Another problem but one I picked up from reading a couple of things about the PSU/osu game ....... the PSU win was fluky. osu dominated in almost every stat. two things hurt them: (1) the first blocked punt that set up a field goal narrow the score differential to 4 points, (2) a kick-six that turned a potential 7-point OSU lead into the three point deficit they'd ultimately lose by.

Special teams or shit happens will be the by-words of the day for me on Saturday. M's numbers in every predictive model that does such things are just stunning. The most notable models are the one's that adjust for opponent quality and garbage time after M has imposed it's will on weak opponents.

If the special teams gods bless M's version of that unit and bring death and destruction on MSU's all will go well and that assumes a minimum of shit happens to M and a lot to MSU.

S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM vs. MSU | mgoblog

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/sp-five-factors-matchup-um-vs-msu

Update Note: After pondering the comparative numbers, I've tweaked the formulas so that ratios are scaled in proportion to the National Average, such that if team A is matched against an exactly average team B, the resulting metric for the team A offense vs team B defense is the same as that of team A offense by itself. If team B is worse than average, team A metrics will look better. Conversely, if team B is better than average, team A metrics will look worse. The impact of the change results in M now having a slight Rushing IsoPPP advantage over MSU instead of being a tie. Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & MSU. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the column at the left. To the right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category. The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road... The "M Offense vs. MSU Defense" column either averages (if inversely proportional) or takes the ratio (if not inversely related) between those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the MSU defense. Likewise, the "MSU Offense vs. M Defense" averages or differences the other two metrics to gauge the performance of the Michigan State Offense. From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description. Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in four of the Five Factors, including Turnovers. Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in all but three two sub-categories, as follows: Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful rushing plays). Neither team has an advantage here, as the result is draw. Also, since this metric considers successful plays only, it can be a bit deceiving. The net Rushing Success Rate for the MSU offense is about 30% lower than UM (this is about the same as what LOLRutgerz was by comparison). Passing IsoPPP (passing down explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful passing play). Same idea here as with 1. and 2. Look at the Passing Success Rate: M is 50% better than MSU. SD IsoPPP (standard down explosiveness, measured as pts. per successful standard down). The same as against Colorado, PSU & Wisconsin, RU... Again, keep in mind that IsoPPP consider successful plays only, of which there are not a great number against the stout UM defense. Again, the success rate for UM is about 50% greater than MSU. FIVE FACTORS (less T/O Luck) M Off M Def MSU Off MSU Def Nat'l Avg. M Off v MSU Def MSU Off v M Def 1) EXPLOSIVENESS: IsoPPP 1.33 1.31 1.28 1.18 1.27 1.24 1.32 2) EFFICIENCY: Success Rate 45.9% 18.5% 40.8% 43.0% 40.9% 48.3% 18.5% 3) FIELD POSITION: Avg. FP 37.2 26.7 28.7 30.2 29.70 37.83 25.80 4) FINISHING DRIVES Pts./Trip in 40 5.78 2.69 4.38 4.95 4.67 6.13 2.52 5) T/O MARGIN: T/O Luck (PPG) 2.49 -2.07 4.56 -4.56 RUSHING Rushing S&P+ 118.8 231.7 102.4 96.9 100.0 122.6 44.2 Rushing Success Rate 46.7% 17.6% 40.4% 41.7% 42.4% 45.9% 16.8% Rushing IsoPPP 1.15 1.18 1.01 1.04 1.08 1.11 1.10 Adj. Line Yards 107.5 188.7 97.4 106.5 100.0 100.9 51.6 Opportunity Rate 41.3% 28.3% 40.0% 34.7% 39.7% 36.1% 28.5% Power Success Rate 80.6% 60.0% 61.1% 70.4% 68.0% 83.4% 53.9% Stuff Rate* 16.8% 27.8% 17.7% 21.4% 18.7% 19.2% 26.3% PASSING Passing S&P+ 128.8 226.3 111.2 87.4 100.0 147.4 49.1 Passing Success Rate 45.0% 19.3% 41.2% 44.7% 40.9% 49.2% 19.4% Passing IsoPPP 1.56 1.41 1.61 1.33 1.48 1.40 1.53 Adj. Sack Rate 153.9 189.0 97.4 47.2 100.0 326.1 51.5 STANDARD DOWNS SD S&P+ 121.1 191.9 113.0 94.6 100.0 128.0 58.9 SD Success Rate 50.9% 22.9% 47.6% 46.8% 47.0% 50.7% 23.2% SD IsoPPP 1.18 1.29 1.12 1.05 1.12 1.11 1.29 SD Line Yds/Carry 3.37 1.48 2.97 2.62 2.98 2.96 1.48 SD Sack Rate* 3.4% 11.1% 1.2% 2.7% 5.1% 1.8% 2.6% PASSING DOWNS PD S&P+ 121.4 276.8 93.3 89.2 100.0 136.1 33.7 PD Success Rate 32.9% 13.2% 28.2% 35.3% 30.3% 38.3% 12.3% PD IsoPPP 1.97 1.34 1.81 1.54 1.74 1.74 1.39 PD Line Yds/Carry 2.79 1.62 2.5 2.67 3.40 2.19 1.19 PD Sack Rate* 7.8% 15.6% 10.1% 4.1% 8.0% 4.0% 19.7% The IsoPPP advantages of Sparty in standard downs and passing plays will mean UM must be on the lookout defensively in order to contain explosive plays, particularly on Standard Downs. This is not necessarily a weakness so much as a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. It doesn't happen often - it just seems that UM's secondary will need to continue to be on its toes in blitz situations. Judging from the PFF numbers I've seen regarding QB ratings vs. Stribling and Lewis, however, QB's would do better by just throwing the ball out of bounds than anywhere near the U-M CB's. In general, however, I would say this matchup looks as one might expect rolling into Piscataway East Lansing. Personally, I would love to see a complete annihilation of the Scarlet Knights Spartans, for reasons I will leave to you, dear reader, in the comments below...

**edindetroit** · October 25, 2016, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by UMStan White View Post

14-7 UM at the half, 28-13 at the end for the good guys

I could live with that, but I could really live with 78-0 good guys!

**Jeff Buchanan** · October 25, 2016, 09:30 PM

The M/MSU game will be televised on ESPN at noon. College Game Day will not be there. Weeps and way to-go Dantoni-o. This could have been a big game. Instead they'll be at FSU who is hosting Clemson, an 8p game.

The other Disney fare at noon is as follows:

ABC (Regional): PSU @ Purdue or Louisville @ UVA.

ESPNU: UCF @ Houston.

ESPNews: UCONN at ECU

ESPN3: Wagner at UMASS.

**The Oracle** · October 25, 2016, 09:34 PM

Yuck.

**WM Wolverine** · October 25, 2016, 09:44 PM

That's just the noon games, when M is playing. USC is hosting a Thursday night game?

At 3:30:
Florida @ Georgia CBS
Baylor @ Texas ABC/ESPN
Miami @ Notre Dame NBC
Washington @ Utah FS1
Maryland @ Indiana ESPNU
Northwestern @ Ohio State ESPN

7PM then 8pm
Nebraska @ Wisconsin ESPN
Clemson @ Florida State ABC

**WM Wolverine** · October 25, 2016, 09:47 PM

Clemson's turnovers are due to cost them a win.

**The Oracle** · October 25, 2016, 10:04 PM

Yes, USC hosting Cal Thursday. I'll be in attendance.

**WM Wolverine** · October 25, 2016, 10:18 PM

I thought Thursday night games were for the Purdue's, Northwestern's. Is there a reason?

**Hannibal** · October 25, 2016, 10:22 PM

There's one or two positive outliers per year.

**froot loops** · October 26, 2016, 09:08 AM

Even beating Michigan would not do anything positive for this turd of a season. Even though the games are normally hard fought, there have been a few games where one side has won handily. A demolition might push Mark Dantonio to make some changes in the offseason on the coaching staff.

**Hannibal** · October 26, 2016, 09:09 AM

I thought that Bollman was an absolutely terrible hire, although I will admit that MSU's offense has exceeded my expectations under him until this year.

**froot loops** · October 26, 2016, 09:14 AM

Boll man isn't good, but it is more Dave Warner calling the plays. I thought the staff did a tremendous job last year keeping that leaky ship together, but I'm not sure what happened this year. A lot can be explained on the attrition of the lines to graduation and players leaving but not everything.

Snyder has not been a good hire, the special teams have suffered since Tressel became co-defensive coordinator. That might have been a Peter Principle promotion.

**Hannibal** · October 26, 2016, 09:23 AM

Some of it is water finding its level too. You can't score home runs on 3* recruits forever.

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