Michigan @ Rutgers Post Game Discussion

[Jeff Buchanan]

That's a good consensus track, WingsFan, of about a dozen different models. The problem in predicting the track after Matthew leaves the Florida waters and starts tracking North are two weather features that are going to steer her. One is a high pressure system in the Western Atlantic. The other is a system in the West Central US that is pushing Eastward. Both of these systems are making it difficult to determine exactly where Matthew will track. This has an impact on timing and weather conditions in the NJ region. It's anybody's guess right now.

NWS has not changed the forecasts for Saturday or Saturday evening in the NJ/Rutgers region other than upping the rain chances from 30% to 40%. Looking at some of the NWSmap data, it appears to me that NOAA and NWS are seeing things differently with the NOAA maps having Matthew track in a way that influences the weather in a bad way for the game while the NWS maps (11:30 EDT) don't show much of anything that looks in any way bad ...... winds in the 10-12 kt range, temps in the low 70s, partly cloudy skies and a 40% chance of pop up showers. I'm betting NWS is a couple hours behind NOAA in its updates. The next NWS update comes out around 3p.

[WingsFan]

Yes, if the low-pressure system moving east meets the storm, it would help the storm move up the coast. If the system moves in before the storm, it would likely help channel it offshore. The high-pressure system in the Atlantic could block Matthew and help pull the storm up the coast and inland.


The NHC's projection shows the center of the storm over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, by 2 a.m. Sunday, with the northern "cone of uncertainty" reaching the south tip of New Jersey.

A direct hit to New Jersey isn't out of the question, but it's still too early to try to predict what will happen.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Good input ...... Ann and I are traveling to the game and I'm keeping a close eye on this mainly to make sure we can get out of Dodge and back to ATL on Sunday morning. So far so good but I'm making plans to stay another day in the NJ area if United's flight operations are suspended Sunday morning.

[Jeff Buchanan]

BTW and another interesting side line ...... NOAA, in the past, took a lot of shit for being too optimistic about it's Hurricane Tracking. Can't remember which storm, maybe Katrina.

Anyway, politically, they seemed to have taken the more pessimistic tracks for the last couple of years pegging the storms and flooding that hit NJ due to Hurricane Sandy in 2012 exactly.

The problem was not enough people listened to the numerous warnings and mandatory evacuation orders and there were a lot of deaths and a huge amount of property lost some of which, 3 years later, hasn't been rebuilt (good Frontline story on this a few weeks ago - sad; fuck the insurance companies).

I suspect by Thursday, if there is any threat to NJ, steps will be implemented and I suspect those steps will include doing something about the Rutgers game. Maybe move it to AA. Heh, Heh.

[WingsFan]

Jeff you have good posts on weather in general. Are you a fan of Nate Silvers 'The Signal and the Noise'? The nerdy side of me is a big fan of Weather and even more Geography.

[Jeff Buchanan]

No, I don't know of Nate Silvers. Link?

In my first life I flew fighters for USMC. I've also sailed and raced all my life including some long hauls on big racing and cruising boats where I did the NAV so, I have a feel for reading the weather discussions and looking at surface prog charts and coming up with something decent. But its a 50/50 thing. Weather is hard, esp, SE MI. I do enjoy keeping up with it though.

[jaadam4]

Jeff we need to get you laid man

[Kstat]

The only drama for me is getting Mone back on the field. This could be a great tune up opportunity for him.

[jaadam4]

Good point but there's a lot to like about it. We get to ease Speight in on the road, get the OL settled with the Newsome injury, test out our kicking game and get back to all the running backs getting some work.

[Kstat]

This isn't a road game. Let's be realistic. Our first real road game is in East Lansing.

This won't be anything close to a hostile atmosphere, especially if the weather is shitty.

[The Oracle]

It won't be hostile once we get ahead, but silly or not, Rutgers has had this game circled for awhile. It'll be loud at first, but it won't matter in the long run.

[WingsFan]

Bushell-Beatty a New Jersey native (he played at Paramus Catholic with Jabrill Peppers), could be making his first career start.

[UMStan White]

Safe travels to you and Ann and Doug and Terry this weekend, Jeff

[jaadam4]

I wish we knew more abouts Nordin and what's wrong with him. These yahoos can't be kicking for us come oiho

[Jeff Buchanan]

Thanks Stan