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**WingsFan** · September 19, 2016, 12:13 PM

Possibly good news, Jim Harbaugh said during Monday’s presser that they knew before the Colorado game that senior cornerback Jourdan Lewis wouldn’t be playing, but he’s very hopeful the All-American will be back against Penn State:

**paul daugherity** · September 19, 2016, 12:13 PM

I agree there is a lot of denying and rationalizing going on by PSUers. I just don't understand the whole hero worship of Paterno. For example, referring to his coaching tenure as his grand experiment to make excellent academics and excellent football coexist at a university. First, as if it is his university and he has anything to do with the academics. Second, as if other state universities across the country haven't already done that. It just seems so extreme.

**hack** · September 19, 2016, 12:27 PM

I'm sure its exceptionally difficult to immediately put to rest much of what you hold dear, but that's what would have to happen. Shudder at the notion that we would ever have to do that, but it would be very difficult to accept what happened and to let go of our feelings for Bo if something like that ever came out. Without a doubt many would look for every possible excuse to save themselves from that difficult task, and much as we love Bo he was nowhere as decorated and legendary as JoePa. So, I sympathize with PSU fans in that regard. Decades of memories, the kinds many of you cherish based on your collective over-the-years experiences, now severely tainted. Not that this excuses them from the mission of coming to grips and moving on, but that's gonna be hard and it's going to take a long time.

**Mackenzie** · September 19, 2016, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by entropy View Post

Initially, they did.. if I remember correctly. Or at least were at the top.

Here's a link about Penn State's earlier years in the B1G. 2012 thru 2015: 29 and 21 (if my math is correct).

Penn State Football: 20 Years in the BIG 10, Tougher Than Expected

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1539158-penn-state-football-20-years-in-the-big-10-tougher-than-expected

Twenty years have passed since Penn State was an independent power in college football and began the seismic change in college football’s landscape regarding conference affiliations when they joined the Big Ten Conference...

**jaadam4** · September 19, 2016, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by hack View Post

I'm sure its exceptionally difficult to immediately put to rest much of what you hold dear, but that's what would have to happen. Shudder at the notion that we would ever have to do that, but it would be very difficult to accept what happened and to let go of our feelings for Bo if something like that ever came out. Without a doubt many would look for every possible excuse to save themselves from that difficult task, and much as we love Bo he was nowhere as decorated and legendary as JoePa. So, I sympathize with PSU fans in that regard. Decades of memories, the kinds many of you cherish based on your collective over-the-years experiences, now severely tainted. Not that this excuses them from the mission of coming to grips and moving on, but that's gonna be hard and it's going to take a long time.

Def a great post with a lot of truth especially comparing Bo and JoPa with the love of the fans.

The problem is if Bo would have found out Gary Mohler was pulling some shit like that Bo would have handled it IMO. If JoPa really knew that was going on he deserves to get roasted along with that university. There's no room for that garbage

**UMStan White** · September 19, 2016, 04:34 PM

What do you mean "if"

**jaadam4** · September 19, 2016, 05:17 PM

I was lobbing up a softball for someone.

**WingsFan** · September 20, 2016, 09:07 AM

Drake Jonson nothing but bad luck, out for the season. Probably get redshirted

**Jeff Buchanan** · September 20, 2016, 09:36 AM

I love this stuff because it's got meat, not someone's personal opinion based on the eyeball test - usually, although well intentioned, is wrong. I'm guilty of this - I think I'm seeing the game from an analyst's perspective. What happens is that live or on TV you just don't see all that you need to see to come to rational explanations for a particular outcome. Even Brain at mgoblog will tell you this about his UFRs.

Anyway, the article and chart I linked to below (you can go through it if you want but I'll post the cliff notes) compares the S&P Five Factors metrics for M v. PSU. This set of stats has very high predictive value. I can't find a p value for these metrics (that would be very nice) but last season, as it wore on, with regard to M, it was 100% accurate in predicting the outcome. I don't know about other schools. I'm a believer.

To prove it, if you calculated points off the chart to come up with M's advantages and CU's advantages (these figures based on only the previous 2 week's numbers), the predicted score would have been 41/21 - which is exactly where the 20 point spread came from.

It also wasn't too far off from the final score. It's worth pointing out two things with regard to predictive value: (1) All these measures have high variance which reduces as the season goes on (IOW predictive value increases as the sample size increases - a statistical fact of life). (2) There is a lot in college football that eludes statistical analysis, for example, fumbles, Interceptions and other high variance (luck or shit happens) stuff like that.

So, what's the bottom line v. PSU:

Of all the individual metrics in the table, the IsoPPP numbers for M's Defense are particularly glaring. IsoPPP overall ranks #123, with Rushing IsoPPP ranked #108 and Passing IsoPPP ranked #109, and SD IsoPPP at #124. What's that mean? M is susceptible to big plays when opposing offenses are ahead of the sticks. Is this an over-aggressive stance by Don Brown's defense? Is it evidence of a learning curve as the team becomes more familiar with Don Brown's schemes? Is it the impact of injuries on the DL and/or in secondary?

This look does explain the DB issues. With Lewis back at CB and Clark back at S, we may see an entirely different result that translates into less big plays. Hill and Thomas at the S spot have not been ideal as they get matched up one on one with faster WRs.

The same may be true on the DL. With Taco and Mone back big running plays may be decreased.

So, ....... crunching the numbers we can predict a final score of M 47.6, PSU 31.3. That's what the current spread is, 16 points. If all three of the key players Harbaugh has held out for the first three games where big plays abounded in the last two, M will cover, I'd say.

M 48, PSU, 24.

S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM vs. Penn State | mgoblog

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/sp-five-factors-matchup-um-vs-penn-state

edlt: Oops! Corrected title... Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & Penn State. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the two columns at the left. To the right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category. The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road... The "M Offense vs. PSU Defense" column averages those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the CU defense. Likewise, the "CU Offense vs. M Defense" averages the other two to gauge the performance of the CU Offense. From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description. Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in all but one of the Five Factors: Explosiveness; and all but four sub-categories, those being Passing IsoPPP (passing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful passing plays), SD IsoPPP (pts. per successful standard down), PD IsoPPP (pts. per successful passing down), and the same as against Colorado...PD Line Yards per Carry (bonus yards gained by running on passing downs...a.k.a. breaking contain!). As with the Buffs, gap integrity is going to be an important discipline for Wolverines success against the Nittany Lions. The IsoPPP advantage of PSU in both the standard and passing downs contribute to their advantage in the overall Explosiveness category. It's readily apparent that the most likely means to PSU success against the Wolverines will be through the big play. If you're reading this you've probably already witnessed what these numbers are quantifying. Of all the individual metrics in the table, the IsoPPP numbers for M's Defense are particularly glaring. IsoPPP overall ranks #123, with Rushing IsoPPP ranked #108 and Passing IsoPPP ranked #109, and SD IsoPPP at #124. What's that mean? M is susceptible to big plays when opposing offenses are ahead of the sticks. Is this an over-aggressive stance by Don Brown's defense? Is it evidence of a learning curve as the team becomes more familiar with Don Brown's schemes? Is it the impact of injuries on the DL and/or in secondary? FIVE FACTORS (less T/O Luck) M Off. M Def. PSU Off. PSU Def. Nat'l Avg. M.Off v PSU.Def PSU.Off v M.Def [1] EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.47 1.58 1.36 1.24 1.28 1.36 1.47 [2] EFFICIENCY Success Rate 44.7% 21.3% 43.1% 37.7% 40.1% 41.2% 32.2% [3] FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 38.4 26.4 37.6 28.9 29.6 33.65 32.00 [4] FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 6.63 2.81 4.82 4.56 4.72 5.60 3.82 -- RUSHING -- Rushing Success Rate 45.2% 17.1% 42.0% 37.4% 41.1% 41.3% 29.6% Rushing IsoPPP 1.17 1.29 0.86 1.25 1.09 1.21 1.08 Opportunity Rate 39.7% 31.1% 35.1% 39.3% 39.8% 39.5% 33.1% Power Success Rate 88.9% 60.0% 53.8% 46.2% 68.6% 67.6% 56.9% Stuff Rate* 12.1% 30.6% 23.8% 23.5% 18.9% 17.8% 27.2% -- PASSING -- Passing Success Rate 44.3% 24.5% 44.2% 38.1% 40.1% 41.2% 34.4% Passing IsoPPP 1.78 1.73 1.86 1.21 1.50 1.50 1.80 -- STANDARD DOWNS -- SD Success Rate 48.9% 25.5% 49.3% 45.7% 46.0% 47.3% 37.4% SD IsoPPP 1.3 1.55 1.13 1.12 1.14 1.21 1.34 SD Line Yds/Carry 3.66 1.35 1.77 2.78 2.96 3.22 1.56 SD Sack Rate* 5.1% 12.0% 3.8% 8.9% 4.5% 7.0% 7.9% -- PASSING DOWNS -- PD Success Rate 33.3% 15.4% 29.5% 22.9% 30.1% 28.1% 22.5% PD IsoPPP 2.13 1.64 2.21 1.68 1.75 1.91 1.93 PD Line Yds/Carry 1.79 2.31 3.14 2.74 3.29 2.27 2.73 PD Sack Rate* 4.6% 14.3% 7.1% 12.8% 7.9% 8.7% 10.7%

**WingsFan** · September 20, 2016, 04:35 PM

Ty Isaac has been a huge disappointment this year. I thought he was going to step it up and have a good year, but (like Smith) he is what he Is. If the wind blows the wrong way in Michigan Stadium or a defenders finger nail is too long and clips his ankle... he's down immediately. Chris Evans is the only back with breakaway potential as this point.

**Jeff Buchanan** · September 20, 2016, 04:46 PM

Mone is not likely to play v. PSU. Jordan and Taco will according to the read everyone is getting.

Drake Harris is looking for a 6th year so, we won't be seeing him in 2016.

I keep refreshing mgoblog for the UFR offense. It's late.

..... and, yeah, Isaac doesn't look much better than he did in 2015. He's got this sort of lumbering, doesn't pick up his feet at all, gate that goes along with his inability to see where the play should be.

I will say, that some of the video I've seen when Smith get's past the LOS, he's got some nice cutting moves. His problem, as far as I can tell, is he often looks like he doesn't know where the play is supposed to go and runs in to a pile of defenders with a big hole somewhere else. Dunno ..... what do I know?

**Detroit Dan** · September 20, 2016, 05:26 PM

Where is all this news on the Drakes (Harris and Johnson) coming from?

**Jeff Buchanan** · September 20, 2016, 05:31 PM

mgoblog ...... didn't say anything about Johnson. Just Drake Harris.

**The Oracle** · September 20, 2016, 06:09 PM

Gotta be wrong then. Drake Harris is only a RS So and isn't injured right now. Gotta be Johnson and I'm shocked he's going after a 6th.

**klondike** · September 20, 2016, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by WingsFan View Post

Ty Isaac has been a huge disappointment this year. I thought he was going to step it up and have a good year, but (like Smith) he is what he Is. If the wind blows the wrong way in Michigan Stadium or a defenders finger nail is too long and clips his ankle... he's down immediately. Chris Evans is the only back with breakaway potential as this point.

I have been underwelmed by the stable of UM rb's. Save for one game by Davis and a few good runs by Smith.

What I have been impressed by is the runnining plays to our speedy wr's and Peppers. Would it be crazy to try one of those guys at tailback for more than just a few plays every game.

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