Hating on the $EC - Mostly Alabama (and a little Georgia too)

[THE_WIZARD_]

I'm trying to come to terms with who I loathe more...AA or Talent...leaning toward Talent...

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't know shit about gambling because I don't gamble nor do I have any interest in doing so.

[AlabamAlum]

Jeff- I do gamble. I enjoy it. I bet reasonably, though.

Wiz- hello

[THE_WIZARD_]

Hola AA

Now piss off!

[AlabamAlum]

The TAMU line has moved to Bama -19 with some books.

Speaking of taking Alabama, I had the opportunity to take an early line with LSU at -3 this summer. It's off the board now, but I regret not jumping...shoulda, woulda, coulda...

I will be curioius to see what it opens at. I like Bama by a bunch. Teams who have had problems throwing the ball do poorly vs us.

[Hannibal]

I have watched a few Alabama games now. I think that there is probably a throwing team that can beat them somewhere, but I don't know who it would be. Their DBs give me the impression of being big time feast-or-famine guys who make lots of big plays but give them up too.

[AlabamAlum]

The team that is best made to beat Bama does the following:

1) Uses the pass to back the safeties up, then mixes in runs.

2) Is probably not a drop back or pro-set team, but plays some variation of a spread.*

3) Has a QB who can run if needed.

4) Defensively, brings pressure up the right and middle of the Bama line

5) Has a sufficiently talented roster.

(*LSU in 2011 is the last team to beat us that did not run a spread variant.)

[iam416]

The line is set to get people to wager. Vegas (and all books) want equal action and to make their money off the vigorish. They set and move the line accordingly.

Yeah, but that's impossible. Mostly they want a good line. They want a line that approximates what they think the game is. They're not going to set lines that leave them exposed to sharps. And there are plenty of times where they move the line away from the action because they know have the right number.

A&M-Bama is a perfect example. Bama has been receiving about 45% of the action. At 16'. 17. 17'. And 18'. Roughly 45% the whole way. The public has been betting up aTm but the line is going the opposite direction suggesting Vegas think Bama is going to win big.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[AlabamAlum]

Well, a good line with public opinion, smart money (sharps get an early peak), and other variables factored in.

Anyway. Not that it matters, but the site I use has the Bama-TAMU at a nearly perfect 50-50. Who do you use?

http://account.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=11&v_nss=405&v_date=10/22/2016&gtype=4

This link is a decent primer on the line:

http://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/who-sets-line

[AlabamAlum]

So, Talent, take Bama -17?

[iam416]

I use sbrodds. But the graph you linked to is basically the same. More money is being bet on aTm and the line is still moving toward Alabama. It should settle a bit at 18'.

But it's a gross misperception that Vegas splits the bets. That's sooooo hard to do. You're almost always going to end up with some split that negates the vig -- it only takes 52.5%.

They don't see things in terms of one game. They see things in terms of the entire day or weekend. A 70% betting favorite may cover and a 70% betting favorite may not and they're up the vig if it's bet roughly the same. It's always in their best interests to have good lines. They have the best computer models spitting out numbers. They may adjust slightly to account for public plays, but they're always leery of the sharps.

So, I mean, this isn't anything you don't know. But they lines aren't some random number. They're Vegas' best guess at the outcome with, sometimes, very slight modifications.

Vegas oddsmakers really like Bama.

[iam416]

I don't know who I'm backing in Bama-Aggies. I have to pick it for our pool. I think Bama is an easily wins by two scores. I think they probably win by the third score and maybe a fourth. Whether it's 17' or 19 doesn't mean much to me in that regard. So, I'm picking Bama and probably playing a mid-range confidence number on it.

[AlabamAlum]

My site has the wagers' split on TAMU-Bama listed as an even 50-50 split.

I like us to win, but the line seems too high. The Aggies are 8th in the nation in total offense. If Knight has time to throw, he will take advantage of our secondary. We are 46th nationally in pass defense. As someone (Hannibal?) said, we make big plays in the secondary, but we get burned due to aggressiveness and a 'nothing-but-man' philosophy. That said, we make teams one-dimensional. I don't think they can run consistently on us, and the run game is a big part of their offense (53% run, 47% pass). Or at least I hope they can't run on us. We are only allowing 63 yards rushing per game (#1, nationally), and if that continues, we should be okay.

[froot loops]

I read a pretty good piece in GQ or some magazine on the guys who set the lines, it was pretty interesting. It was probably about 10 years ago so it may have changed in that time. But the main takeaway was that it is the obscure matchup that give them the most problems. Public teams like Bama, Michigan, ND and pro teams like Dallas are going to have lines pretty similar all over.