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Hating on the $EC - Mostly Alabama (and a little Georgia too)
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Alabama and Auburn have had 5 common opponents in 2016. Bama beat those 5 teams by a combined score of 191-90 (+101). Auburn's tally was 168-88 (+80). That is a 4.2 ppg advantage for Bama when considering like teams. With those 5 like opponents, Auburn played 3 of them at home and Bama played 2 at home. Award 3 to Bama to the total for that to make It a 4.8 point differential. Finally, add 3 points to the 4.8 since the game is at Bryant-Denny to get a final adjusted differential of Bama -8 (rounded up from -7.8).
I did this last year and it nailed the line. It was 19-point (18.6 rounded up) Bama advantage before the -3 because the game was played at Jordan-Hare to give Bama a 16-point adj. diff. Bama won 29-13.
Yes, yes, I know this isn't scientific, but if Bama wins by 8, I'm patenting this and selling eBooks on Amazon. I WILL BE RICH! RICH!"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
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"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
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Originally posted by THE_WIZARD_ View PostLair!!
sorry wrong moniker again
You're correct. They actually predicted a 38.6-43.3 game. Or 4.7-point diff. They do not account for homefield in their computer predictions. If they allowed 3 points for that, they would have an 8-point (7.7 rounded up) Bama win predictedLast edited by AlabamAlum; November 20, 2016, 07:46 PM."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
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