U of M MEN'S BASKETBALL 2016-2017

[hack]

A final note using the best metric -- the Vegas lines.

Wichita is the only lower seed that is favored by more than a point, and they're favored big at -6 vs Dayton.

Wisconsin is -5'. Every other 8/9 game is at 1 or 1'.

In the other 7-10 games, the 7 is favored with SMC at -4', M at -2' and Cocks at -1'.

Minnesota is currently a PK against MTSU. They opened at 3 suggesting that Vegas thinks they're slightly better. No other 5-12 game is less than 6.

Purdue is the lightest 4 seed at only 8'. The rest are double digits.

My informal take away is that Wisky and Wichita were underseeded and Minnesota was overseeded.

That's good context. My perception is that Wisconsin got screwed more than us. I don't mind Purdue seeded ahead of Michigan, but Minnesota a little moreso.

[hack]

IMO it all depends on:

1. Is Wagner back? Some people think he's off to Germany, it seems. I don't know if there's smoke to that fire or not, but I see the logic in it.

2. Who is the leader of the team? IMO Michigan has thrived under Beilein in a variety of ways. They had a great year in '14 and hardly ever dove for loose balls that year, at least not until they perceived themselves as cold from the field. To a lesser extent the same in '13. Michigan has also thrived being essentially scrappy, like in '12. And now they have finally addressed the defense and hustle issues, and are thriving with a two-way identity. IMO the constant, however, is leadership. Michigan turned it around when Walton woke up. In '14 they had Stauskas as a leader, and he brought swagger and shotmaking, and in '13 they had Burke. In '12 they had Novak. '15 and '16 were awful. Team had no pulse. Caris wasn't healthy, and even when he was the team was losing back-to-back to NJIT and EMU. Maybe he just wasn't the type to lead.

So, next year, who is the pulse of the team? If Wagner is here and ready, hopefully that's the solution.

[Cody_Russell]

We have senior MAAR next year. All is good.

[hack]

That's kinda what was said about Caris after his sophmore year -- ready to take over as leader. Obviously that didn't happen. I don't know that we can just assume whomever is ready to step up, but Wagner is demonstrative and he'll be the best player. That's my hope. We'll see. As long as he's back. I hope he will be.

[Hannibal]

Wilson is a good candidate for that job too.

[hack]

He's kinda disappeared in some games though, and the anonymous-scouting stuff mentioned him as soft. Then again, you could have said that about Walton before late January.

I do think though that if they are able to maintain a baseline of effort and competency on defense, there's less of a need for a player who can carry the team on his back and to keep everyone else dialled in. Knowing what to do on defense, which they now do, is its own sort of encouragement to try hard. Its easier to run around out there if you have a sense of why you're doing it and what you're trying to accomplish on a second-to-second basis.

[hack]

From mgoblog today: This the second-best offense Beilein's ever had at Michigan, slotting in a hair behind the Stauskas/Levert-led Elite 8 team.

I commented the other day that I don't know if Burke ever had a game as individually dominant as Walton was against Minnesota. Burke was obviously far more consistent, and had a knack for making decisive crunch-time plays on defense rather than with scoring, of course. But in saying that I don't think he ever had a game like this, well, I didn't factor in that Burke didn't get to play with Wagner and Wilson in a five-out offense. A big part of this year is that the team is finally playing defense, but in no small part they turned things around because holy shit can they ever spread the floor. This offense works so much better than either one Burke played in. I'm not at all surprised it ranks better. And, the above stat underscores what a fucking swaggering badass Stauskas was in '14.

[Cody_Russell]

M is going to have to make shots (>45%) vs OkSt.
If Walton or Irvin are cold on Friday, it could be troubling to keep up with OkSt's offense.
Good thing the defense has been playing better and M is playing with all of the heart/ intangibles.

Interesting match up:
M's efficiency on offense vs OkSt meh defense.
M good defense vs OkSt explosive uptempo offense.

[hack]

Ranked #23 in final AP poll. More evidence suggesting this is a minor/not major screwing.

[Niffla]

Better worry about the Pokes first

Yep. They're dangerous.

Hell I'm already nervous.

[WM Wolverine]

Many were screwed far worse but there are schools like Minnesota, ND, Creighton & Butler that are seeded far too high and now have easier paths to the Sweet Sixteen. Two of them might play each other (Gophers & Butler) in round 2.

RPI is WAY overvalued by the committee. It's truly an awful way to rank teams and there are much better stats/algorithms that are far more accurate at ranking teams.

[Niffla]

Lunardi predicts we'll lose against Oklahoma State

In fact he predicts not a single team out of the BT will make it to the 2nd weekend

FiveThirtyEight gives UM a 63% chance to move on

[UMStan White]

538 gave Clinton a 90% chance of moving on

[Niffla]

538 gave Clinton a 90% chance of moving on

I lol'd

Well in this case we want FiveThirtyEight to be right since they're leaning UM

They got us at 63% and OKST at 37% (obviously)

[Hannibal]

If the team that we have seen for the past month and a half is representative of what we will see this weekend then we will beat Oklahoma State soundly.