Michigan Football, Team 137, 2016 Season.

[Pasadena Blue]

I am doubtful of Speight's ability to throw the deep ball ... much like Ruddock at the beginning of last year. If we can't take the top off the defense, the running game is going to struggle. As much I'd like to think that Drevno can turn around this OL, I think they are what they are at this point. I think Hanni may need to reset his expectations.

[jaadam4]

We can sleepwalk through the majority of the schedule with my grandmother under center. We're going to need more than a game manager for Oiho and little brother in their houses. Last year against Oiho we were flat out embarrassed.

Harbaugh is reviving a program from nothing and it's going to take time to get his players in house but he can't stay in the public eye picking fights without beating Oiho. Our defense is going to have to be great because our offense will be exploited against the elite.

[The Oracle]

Man, I'd expect all these hot takes on Speight after at least his first series in his first career start. Guess 20 snaps in spring ball was enough.

[jaadam4]

I'll gladly take any "I told you so" and eat all the shit I can take. I truly want to be wrong on this one but I went full force on the O'Korn for prez bandwagon rolling back into last season.

[lineygoblue]

I wanted to see O'Korn get the job as well, but I'm 100% convinced that Coach Harbaugh knows how to develop and evaluate his QB's better than I do. I'll be tuning in to see how Speight does. I hope he does well.

[jaadam4]

yeah yeah me too.. i just want to bitch for awhile

[WM Wolverine]

Some here seem to believe the talent difference between O'Korn & Speight is massive, IME it's a bit smaller than most believe...

Speight was a [surpisingly] top target for Hoke's staff whose judge of QB talent was very questionable as Al Borges had the final say on QB's till Nussmeier came aboard... I usually felt Borges settled for 'meh' recruits when higher rated recruits were very interested in M. Hoke took Speight's commitment's when some highly thought of QB's were seriously considering M. If Speight were playing for Wisconsin, Maryland, Nebraska or Sparty, I think our fan base would have a higher opinion of his talent level while the reverse is typically true. If Speight starts, I'm confident JH is playing his best QB who gives M the best chance to win.

O'Korn was sometimes very good at Houston but he was quite erratic back then too. Remember he couldn't hold down his job there and lost it during his true sophomore season, likely for the same reasons he can't win the job here; too many mistakes and turnovers are the most critical way for an offense to underachieve...

Against Sparty & Ohio State along with games vs Penn State, Wisconsin & Iowa are when M can't have critical turnovers that turn a game M could and/or should win into a likely loss. O'Korn's decision making is what's holding him back and will continue to until he doesn't throw into coverage, force balls where they can't fit and make the reads JH requires of his QB's.

[jaadam4]

Is anyone following the Speight thread at mgoblog?

It's reminds of a Seinfeld episode.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Is anyone following the Speight thread at mgoblog?

It's reminds of a Seinfeld episode.

Reminds me of William Shakespeare ...... "Much ado About Nothing."

Sometime about three fourths through M's 2015 season, I stropped following the blog altogether. Brian had sort of disappeared. He's the only credible writer there that can get away with flourish in his style. Pretty good actually. All the rest are mimickers of it and all of them fall short. Eyes bleed.

He reappeared mid-summer and had some good stuff - even though there was nothing to write about from the Submarine and he knew it. He's done three or four very well done and documented pieces the last few days previewing positions. mgobard remains a vast wasteland of children posting child like nonsense.

[iam416]

For those of you having doubts, including me, about the efficiency and explosiveness of M's running game, Brian did a very well documented and videoed piece on Deveon Smith.

I like Mgo and read it regularly, but Brian's pre-season analysis strikes me as a combination of "these guys really weren't as bad as you think" or "these guys are even better than you think". The bulk of the positive offensive analysis boils down to FLORIDA!!!!

Smith had 42 carries for 108 yards against Sparty, OSU and Penn State. Given that he is, apparently, second only to Fournette in yards after contact, he must have been hit in the backfield roughly 40 of those 42 carries and turned 0 yard carries into his impressive 2.57 ypc against those teams because he breaks so many tackles. Oh, in case you're wondering, the OL really isn't that bad, made lots of strides and FLORIDA!!!!!

As a none kool-aider, I have zero problem believing that M's defense will be very good. I don't buy into the Don Brown stuff, but the Jimmy and Joes will work for them. They have a DL that can handle every OL in the conference, IMO. That makes playing defense easy. Last year, they had some issues against a pretty good IU OL and a really good OSU OL, which sorta beat the bejesus out the M DL including Wormley and the mighty Taco. Neither of those OLs will be as good this year.

However, I cannot buy into the M offense. I watched most of their 13 games last season. There is nothing in that body of work that makes me think they'll be able to consistently run the ball against good defense. I do like their WRs and Butt, but I'm not shitting rainbows about Speight and I never liked O'Korn (and still don't).

[Hannibal]

The OL was a crushing disappointment last year and will need to make huge leaps forward if Michigan is to win the B1G since we'll be going the "game manager" route at QB. Since Harbaugh doesn't spread the field horizontally very much we'll have to spread the field vertically. We've got the receivers to do it but a new starter at LT and "game manager" are going to hurt the passing game.

[Mike]

Yep. They'll have to win with defense and capitalize on opponents' mistakes.

[Rocky Bleier]

The OL was a crushing disappointment last year and will need to make huge leaps forward if Michigan is to win the B1G since we'll be going the "game manager" route at QB. Since Harbaugh doesn't spread the field horizontally very much we'll have to spread the field vertically. We've got the receivers to do it but a new starter at LT and "game manager" are going to hurt the passing game.

Damn, we just think too much alike. I just hope the OL plays the way they did v.s. Florida. That really was impressive. Deveon Smith looked good that day too because he was finally healthy. So much of the enthusiasm about this year's team is due to the bowl game and the fact that there are so many returning starters, but it's essentially the same team that couldn't stop OSU. When MSU stops the run in E. Lansing, will Speight be able to avoid the rush and make the throws? I'm doubtful, but we'll know more after the Wisconsin and Penn State games.

[lineygoblue]

The OL was a crushing disappointment last year and will need to make huge leaps forward if Michigan is to win the B1G since we'll be going the "game manager" route at QB. Since Harbaugh doesn't spread the field horizontally very much we'll have to spread the field vertically. We've got the receivers to do it but a new starter at LT and "game manager" are going to hurt the passing game.

When Harbaugh was with the 49ers, he used spread-type formations to utilize the mobility of Kaepernick.

Last year, he simplified the offense he ran at Stanford, so that Rudock could learn and run it quickly. It got us 10 (11) wins.

I look for more of the same this year. He'll build the offense around the players. And he won't be afraid to go to a more vertical game, with the receiving corps he has back. As long as he has a QB that can get the ball out there, he'll put it downfield.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I like Mgo and read it regularly, but Brian's pre-season analysis strikes me as a combination of "these guys really weren't as bad as you think" or "these guys are even better than you think". The bulk of the positive offensive analysis boils down to FLORIDA!!!!

I'll give you the implications of FLORIDA!!! Disinterested and not very good on D at all.

But there is more in that analysis than the UF game. Not a lot but the stuff I saw and from my perspective is something to build on. I can see your take though.

Smith had 42 carries for 108 yards against Sparty, OSU and Penn State. Given that he is, apparently, second only to Fournette in yards after contact, he must have been hit in the backfield roughly 40 of those 42 carries and turned 0 yard carries into his impressive 2.57 ypc against those teams.....

Well, yes, there is that. Keep in mind that most of us carrying on a sane discussion about 2016 have said in multiple posts about it...... M will do really well against teams with lesser talent, OK against teams with equal talent and do poorly against teams with better talent (or words to that effect) ......

Most of us here, when asked about M's 2016 win total, take that into account and are predicting 9.5-10 wins. I've got a lean toward 10 and that was before talk of Speight being the guy. The OL and running game and a game manager QB is going to lose to two conference opponents. Take your pick out of MSU, Iowa and osu. If M does make it to the CFB playoffs, that reality is likely to produce a crushing loss. No shitting rainbows from this M fan.

Stat models I've seen predict M winning in every game but v. osu who holds a thin margin for the win. I'd call that a toss-up v. osu in every definition of it. What's somewhat puzzling to me is that you are on record here predicting 11 wins for M and M beating osu in c-bus. I have a hard time reconciling your post above with that prediction. But, eh, predictions.

However, I cannot buy into the M offense. I watched most of their 13 games last season. There is nothing in that body of work that makes me think they'll be able to consistently run the ball against good defense. I do like their WRs and Butt, but I'm not shitting rainbows about Speight and I never liked O'Korn (and still don't).

See above (2.5 losses) ...... I think you are right. In order of "good" D, I'd say osu with MSU and Iowa distantly behind osu that regardless of the loss of talent is going to be very good ..... ufm is a plug and play master.

I think M's O can do well in conference. They'll hold their own. Weave the TEs and H-Backs into M's offense to supplement potentially marginal run blocking and RB play and there might be something there that is better than last year ...... assuming the QB can make those throws so, there is that question yet unanswered.

I've seen plenty of Alabama and OU games - both traditionally and consistently good offenses - that look just serviceable in a particular game that they still and usually win easily. The difference is the big plays both of these teams come up with at critical times to create that sinking feeling for opponents and ultimately produce wins. That's both coaching and execution playing along side great defense.

In 2016, Harbaugh didn't have the big play consistently and, indeed, had a below average run game worse than appearing to be serviceable like Bama and the Sooners can sometimes look. That's the body of work for 2015 that we have to go on for M. So, I won't dispute your take on that or assail your logic in concluding 2016 can suddenly be that much better. I guess we'll see.