The Game - osu @ M, 11/28/15, Noon, ABC National.

[THE_WIZARD_]

liney blew that perverted whistle? lol

Funny story liney...I worked white hat on Monday for a state championship game at Memorial Stadium...our LJ went down in the 1st quarter blew out his knee...the state had an alternate guy to sub...3 plays into him in the game he blows an IW...I was f-ing pissed. At halftime the state guys were in the locker room...they didn't say a word to me. They knew better. LOL. Nothing like getting on the mic and explaining an IW to a course of boos. Of course other that the IW we were perfect (naturally).

[THE_WIZARD_]

IW's are bad. Period. Very bad. One team almost always gets screwed.

[lineygoblue]

And its almost always on a play when the offense scores, or would have scored.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Fortunately on our play it was a running play and the runner pitched it back to a teammate right before his knee went down...two yard loss on the play eventually but the LJ thought the knee was down (damn Lincoln Association guy) so we just replayed the down not too much damage but...could have been a lot worse had the guy broken it for a big gain or TD...

[lineygoblue]

The worst IW I had was on a blocked FG attempt. I stupidly had my whistle in my mouth, and for some idiotic reason, I was thinking extra point. I have no idea why, because the attempt was from about the 30 yard line. If I could have dug a hole big enough, I would have crawled into it. I never did it again though. :-)

[*JD*]

I hope the game is as favorable as this match-up. Not that the girl on the left is ugly. She's just outclassed.

[*JD*]

Harbaugh pays tribute to Bo and then smashes a buckeye in front of his grave:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2015/11/24/harbaugh-busts-buckeye-bos-memory/76346924/

[hack]

Did he pour out some whole milk for his dead homie?

[lineygoblue]

Its becoming a yearly tradition. Bob Ufer is buried nearby, as is Fielding Yost. All three grave sites are part of the walk.

Smashing buckeye nuts at Bo's grave. Excellent. He'd be proud.

[UMStan White]

Harbuagh on Thanksgiving:

On his favorite Thanksgiving dish: “Steak. That’s my favorite. We’re flipping the switch, we’re going with steak. And then creamed corn. If we can get some creamed corn, that would be just one heck of a deal on some mashed potatoes. And stuffing with some sausage in it.”

[Jeff Buchanan]

I wasn't even going to think about posts that objectively analyze what's likely to happen in this game save for the wild ass predictions on what will happen based on nothing but feelings and subjectivity.

osu offense v. M's D. meyer has watched the IU tape. Elliot will be called upon to run the zone stretch play. He will get some yards but not many. Why? Because there's evidence that M's front seven is gap sound despite what it looked like v. IU ...... see PSU.

Elliot is a much better back than Barkley and probably better than Howard. Still ain't gonna happen. Why? Because osu's OL is not as good as IU's. It's really hard to run the zone stretch play well. It's not a staple of ufm's offenses. He favors power. That's his bread and butter. Fortunately for M, the front seven is pretty good at stopping that kind of run game.

I agree with talent. elliot is not going to run the ball very well. He'll get some yards but I would not be at all surprised if he was held under 100. The wild card in the run game is jtb. The constraint to both these run plays is getting the LBs to step forward so they can't react to the various screens (ufm runs the tunnel or slow screen among others). Still the QB has to make his reads on these. jtb has not been very good at it and I don't think coaches trust him to throw the ball.

jtb does run the read option that is in ufm's playbook. Something was very wrong with that v. MSU. My bet is that the OL was getting handled by MSU's front 4. I don't think M's DL is a huge step down from MSU's but, at full strength MSU's DL is > than M's without Glascow. meyer/jtb will have this figured out v. M. jtb will have more yardage, crucial yardage, running than Elliot will.

OTH, M has defended the read option very well when it is part of the repertoire of the opponent they are facing and can scout it. That's the case here. Moreover, the read option sucks inside the RZ. M will trade FGs for TDs anytime.

M has demonstrated a very effective defense against anything an opponent QB is going to throw deep in straight man coverage. If you don't trust your QB to do throw it long where only his receiver can get to it, and/or he can't do it, that's not a good thing. As well, osu (meyer and his OC) haven't demonstrated a willingness or capacity to adapt to that reality and produce a functional offense. They needed to v. MSU and didn't. osu O has been middling all season. Moreover, if your QB and receivers can't take the top off a defense, it hurts what your offense is trying to do with the run and screen game.

Overall, I agree with talent again. osu is not going to score a lot of points. Somewhere between 10-20 sounds about right to me for the reasons above and that is without M turning the ball over and giving osu a short field. Obviously that changes the calculus.

M's O v. osu's D: Deveon Smith is not going to suddenly turn into Tim Biakabatuka for this game. M won't get a lot of run yardage either. Some but not a lot. What's important here is that Smith has demonstrated that he is good at getting the tough, crucial yardage when it's needed. So is Houma. To me, that's a difference maker.

My view is that Jake Rudock and his receivers (Chesson, Darboh and Butt), in the last three games, have demonstrated they can do all the things that jtb and his receivers can't. That is not going to change for the better for osu in a week. The numbers unequivocally support that view. Rudock is going to win the QB battle being more efficient, reading osu's D better than jtb will read M's and delivering clutch plays to the multiple receivers he has available to him for TDs. The numbers also support that view in spades.

osu does have a weakness on D to the edge because of their scheme not because they don't have good athletes. I suspect JH will try to advantage this in his pass game with the same kinds of things that worked v. PSU who run a similar defense but keep their corners and safeties back a bit compared to osu. We've seen how well M's receivers block on these quick outs like the one's that wer big chunk plays against PSU.

If you want to understand why I've put this stuff out here or what kind of D osu runs, why it has a schematic disadvantage on the edges and why I think JR will be pretty good at finding his open receivers in it, look here:

http://breakdownsports.blogspot.com/2015/11/the-game-ohio-state-michigan-2015.html#more

STs: Probably a wash. I have no clue about osu's place kicker. TBH, and I'll admit this is just a gut feeling, it's not going to come down to a FG, a big punt or a kick-off return. I file that kind of thing into the fluky, roughly 15% of the game that, if you do well in the other 85%, this is usually, or shouldn't be, a big part of the outcome.

The intangibles: as much as we fans like to think there is some sort of psychological edge gained by this or that team that contributes to a win, that is fundamentally BS. Forget about an M advantage because osu lost to MSU and is down or osu's team chemistry sucks right now. The game's outcome boils down to execution and effort and will boil down further to a couple of really well or poorly executed plays.

Unfortunately, officiating is likely to be a factor in this game. Hate it but BT officiating is what it is. Good teams play though that kind of crap and the one that does that the best is going to come out on top.

Michigan 27, osu 16.

[klondike]

Agree about the refs. Why do I feel like one of teams will be crying about the officiating after this game.

[Hannibal]

I'd be okay with that if it's them. The refs owe us big time.

[Pasadena Blue]

I have a bad feeling about this game.
I am ignoring Talent's emotional post-loss sandbagger.

O-state massively out-talents us. Zeke is a stud, and our depleted D-Line has progressively become very susceptible (don't get fooled by the PSU game). Meyer won't make the same mistake two weeks in a row and I worry we will get gashed. JTB also has the hops to avoid the sack that Sackenberg did not have. To make matters worse opponents have figured out that they can just throw to the non-Jourdan Lewis side of the field and Stribling/Clark are pretty suspect. Miller and Marshall could have a field day.

On offense, we know we can't run the ball, and an impressive O-state D-line should be able to tee off on Jake. With Chesson likely out (or at least significantly hampered) we are that much more impaired.

The wildcard for the O is Jabrill. I do expect the Bucks will get a big dose of him, but that's not a surprise and they will be expecting.

Bucks have been the dominant favorites all year and have come out flat. For the first time people are questioning their desire --- if that is not motivation enough, it is the The Game.

I would not be surprised if we get blown out which would be damaging with all the recruits we have coming to the game.

Hope I'm wrong, but I am not feeling all that rosy.

[lineygoblue]

I'm thinking along those same lines, PB. OSU has a tremendous talent advantage.

Ohio didn't do what they did last year with smoke and mirrors. They went out and absolutely laid to waste two of the better teams in college football. Made it look easy. Most of the guys from that team are back, and I don't think a departed OC means that they can't reach those heights again. Especially on a November Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor.

One thing consistent about OSU, is that they gear every season toward playing Michigan. Its what their entire program exists for, and what their entire state puts their hopes into.

Urban Meyer knows this. He knows that an absolute multitude of sins can be forgiven, by getting "scoreboard" on the "team up north". He's not a stupid man. He knows which side his bread is buttered on, and that's the side where he beats Michigan.

So, I think Meyer and his staff have taken a look at every possible weapon they can utilize against Michigan on Saturday, and they will use every one extensively. I don't care how "unimaginative" their offense has been recently, that's yesterday's news. A victory against Michigan is on the line, and Meyer knows he's got to pull out all the stops.

I expect to see Braxton Miller used in many situations. I will not be surprised if he lines up in the wildcat spot, and I won't be surprised if he lines up at RB behind Jones. I wouldn't be surprised by anything.

Meyer pulls out all the stops on Saturday. I'm not predicting a score, but I have a hard time seeing a Michigan win. Maybe next year once OSU graduates more of the talent advantage that they have.

I wish I could feel better about our chances.