Michigan at Penn State, 11/21, Noon, ABC National

[WM Wolverine]

If the M defense that showed up for much of the season, they should be able to find enough points to win regardless of the running game...

M matches up against PSU much better than Indiana plus were at home. I'm optimistic but this game isn't that far from a coin flip. A few big plays (or lately, calls) in one team's favor can certainly tilt the balance to either team.

[Jeff Buchanan]

^^^^^

The defensive UFR is up at mgoblog. It's the only thing that applies to PSU and osu so, I could care less about Ruddock's success as impressive as it was.

I'm going to give my take on the D, not mgoblog's and I'm using Steve Sharik's Diary as a starting point.

Durkin blew it using the defense he deployed to cover up for the Glascow injury/loss. That's how I read things. While he used 4 defenders up front, he kept a S deep (like he usually does and that works when Glasgow is in there), Wilson consistently ran plays where M had 7 guys in the box v. 8 guys for IU.

Moreover, M has a known weakness against stretch zone run plays. The Gophers used it 25 times and IU used it 50 ++times. Both games were incredible wins against all odds and a miserable defensive performance.

The principle problem in this particular play (the Zone Stretch) is that defenders playing on the LOS are getting reached by both the opponent C or G as the case may be based on play design. Brian points out in his UFR that if a defender playing up front gets reached it is doom because the leading blocker for the runner, in this case Howard, is going to have a great angle on the LB trying to fill.

....... and never mind that Bolden is not going to be anywhere close to challenging the runner, thereby limiting the play to 4 yards, most of the time and a 20+ yard chunk play is going to result. There was a lot of talk about missed tackles v. IU. I have always held that missed tackles are usually a result of not being in the right place, shoulders square to the ball carrier. That was a player some but more times than not, the LBs were exposed because the guys playing the interior on the 4 man defensive fronts were getting handled. IOW without Glasgow there to make those plays and instead having and in particularly, Stroble and Poggi and to a lesser extent Hurst or Henry there just exposed the weakness of the LBs, in particular Bolden.

My bet is you won't see this defense again when Glasgow is out. We might see a 40 front but Durkin will not make the mistake of having 7 hats v. 8. He is going to either have the deep S playing closer or more likely he is going to deploy a 30 front as depicted in this diary post:

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/rps-hey-theres-p-and-s-you-can-use

[iam416]

It's going to be easy to load the box against PSU. Hopefully OSU will make that a harder decision.

[The Oracle]

We'll see how the game goes, but I bet that's how they start it. Have to make OSU WR win 1-1 battles and do our best to take Elliot away. But that's for another day....

[Tslisher]

The bottom line is that winning this battle is key to winning the game. Lose it and M has to count on ANOTHER miracle performance from Rudock and I think that bag-o-tricks is about empty.

I don't know about that empty bag of tricks. I think Rudock has really gotten more comfortable with the offense and his connection with receivers has improved. Yes, I know against Rutgers and Indiana..... but he wasn't making those type of throws earlier in the year. Go to Brian's UFR and look at the clips of some of those passes and look at the coverage downfield. He's finally throwing his receivers open, or in some cases tossing the jump ball in single coverage and counting on his guys to go get it. That wasn't happening earlier in the year.

So I think Rudock performs well in this game - not amazing, but certainly better. I really like his passes to Butt. High, where only Butt can go and get them against smaller corners/linebackers. I think this will continue, even with stouter defenses.

[lineygoblue]

I'm staying with my policy of not making score predictions this year. Don't want to mess up now.

Just get the "w" guys ...

Concerned a bit about the PSU pass rush. They're strong.

I hope Harbaugh and his staff got the run defense problems sorted out.

Can't cheer for OlieO or MSU. Just can't do it. Whatever helps Michigan, I guess I'm for that. But, I can't root for either team.

I need to take back a criticism of Derek Green from last week. Apparently, the reason he didn't travel to Indiana last week, was because he's nursing an injured foot. But I still wish he'd live up to his hype.

Its still been a great season, no matter how this game goes.

[Prime2]

Green tweaked his hamstring late in the Rutgers game and limped off. Frankly he has been either injured or overweight and out of shape most of his career.

Just imagine how fat you have to actually be in order to be labeled as such in Hoke's system?

You just can't count on the guy, no use to the team.