Michigan at Penn State, 11/21, Noon, ABC National

[iam416]

Throw Army out.

The teams that ran the ball against PSU were very much read-option teams with QBs that could run the ball. Maryland with Hills, NW with Thorson and OSU with JTB. Hell, the OSU game is a microcosm of this -- OSU was ineffective running the ball with Cardale Jones a QB and piled up the rushing yards with JTB.

PSU has been pretty good against more straight-forward running attacks (Note, the IU game was basically against IU's 3rd QB -- I think Diamont was hurt in that game).

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yes ...... my take has more to do with a straight ahead power game where the interior OL beats the opponents NT including any double teams.

I'm not sayng M is going to win this battle. I'm saying watch this early as it is going to tell you whether they are or are not going to win it.

What I think has a decent chance of happening is that the light bulb suddenly goes on for Kalis-Galsgow-Braden like it did for Jake to Chesson and his other two targets in Darbo and Butt. Maybe that's wishful thinking as trends don't seem to indicate that. But, I like Harbaugh and his staff in making things happen pre and in game...... and I suppose you'd expect me to say that.

The bottom line is that winning this battle is key to winning the game. Lose it and M has to count on ANOTHER miracle performance from Rudock and I think that bag-o-tricks is about empty.

[iam416]

I don't think M's offense will have to score too many points. I'm far more optimistic that M can right its DL issues and stifle Barkley and put tons of pressure on Suckenberg. I really don' see M running the ball effectively, but I think they will still win.

I'll say 27-13.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't think M's offense will have to score too many points.

Definitely agree with this and I think there's a good chance JH will play it that way and fans are going to be quibbling about not going for the throat.

I could be wrong as there is a smaller chance he will uncork Jake in the bottle and he certainly has demonstrated that kind of killer instinct. Win with character, cruelty and such.

I'm far more optimistic that M can right its DL issues and stifle Barkley and put tons of pressure on Suckenberg. I really don' see M running the ball effectively, but I think they will still win.

I'll say 27-13.

Your score pick is right with the betting line. Certainly not telling you anything you don't know. That score is by far the most frequent pick from what I've seen.

I think what you're saying is that DJD has a better chance of fixing the front 7 problems on D than Drevno has on fixing the interior OL problems?

That's a fair assessment based on trends. Here's the downside of the DJD over Drevno pick:

The Glasgow loss is huge for several reasons, the most pertinent is depth at the NT position. I can guarantee you Franklin is going to run right at the gaping hole his loss creates up front and keep doing it until M wears out. Sure, we're not going to see 94 plays out of PSU like we did against IU but you could see the cost of KW's approach by the 3rd quarter and early in it at that. I don't think you can fix that despite what some are saying that it can be fixed.

Given that, I'm putting my emphasis in game prep on getting the interior offensive line to execute bread and butter plays. That's because I want as many 14 play, 7 minute drives that end in TDs that I can manage to produce. The alternative if that doesn't work is, of course letting Rudock lose to see if he can replicate his last two performances. However, I'd be for sure telling him if his deep receiver is not wide open, throw to the outlet guys to keep the chains moving ..... slowly. Not that I think Sackenberg is any good, I don't. I just want PSU to have the ball as little as possible exposing the weaknesses in the DL. When you're doing that, it keeps the D fresh as well as PSU can't score. That's my strategic game plan in this one.

[iam416]

I think what you're saying is that DJD has a better chance of fixing the front 7 problems on D than Drevno has on fixing the interior OL problems?

Yes, by a longshot. The OL is what it is. The DL was in a state of flux. DJD has an opportunity to respond to what he saw and adjust scheme to cover potential weaknesses. It won't be a perfect fix, but I think it ought to work for now. Next week could be problematic.

[Jeff Buchanan]

OK ...... then you believe the trio of Ross, Bolden and Morgan at the LB spots are good. Right?

No, they are not. When you say the OL is what it is, I can say the LBs are what they are. It is here that DJD has to fine tune his D to get them to fill gaps correctly. That is something two of them at least, have not been able to do very well.

I will say that I think Durkin will play plenty of press-man at the corners, bring a S up a couple of yards and play a lot of 4 man fronts that flexes to 8 quickly. He'll also be very aggressive with his blitzes. I will be pissed off if we see Zone at all. I don't think there is that much more he can do and that kind of D is a risk/benefit proposition when you have LBs that are what they are.

I think Harbaugh will have something to say about a high risk D choosing to see how the O does first and therefore putting fixing that as his priority. But that's just me, your view definitely has merit. We'll see how it goes.

[The Oracle]

The line is 4, so Talent's prediction blows the spread out of the water. i think it'll be a lot closer than that. 23-17 type.

[WM Wolverine]

M 20, PSU 17.

[froot loops]

Talent is too pessimistic for the Wolverine chances if anything. Don't get caught up too much in the weeds of stats. Harbaugh versus Franklin is the only thing you need to consider. I don't think much of Franklin.

To me, the way to beat the the Michigan defense is some sort of no huddle that limits the defensive looks or if you run a read option . PSU does neither.

[WM Wolverine]

PSU shouldn't have too much trouble shutting down M offense either, unless JR suddenly turned into Tom Brady.

[jaadam4]

U of M 70 - PSU 6

[maxreturn]

I don't like our chances in this game unless we can get the running game going and Harbaugh can find a way to contain their running game. While their rush defense gives up an average of 5 yards per rush we haven't been able to establish the run against any decent defense. Meanwhile PSU averages 5 yards per rush. In addition, their pass defense ranks very high in yards per pass and in sacks/hurries.

[lineygoblue]

[Jeff Buchanan]

..... While their rush defense gives up an average of 5 yards per rush we haven't been able to establish the run against any decent defense......

I think its a lower number than that but, true, not by much. Their big fails on D have been against read option teams. They did poorly against NW, Army (albeit triple Option) and got ripped by osu manly because jtb is one more guy you have to account for in the run game. There's a post I made in this thread showing the game-by-game run stats.

Against power teams (straight ahead types), they do well. JH's WCO, if you can call it that and I think you can, is a little more creative in the run game so, I'm in the group that thinks M has to have a run game to win this one. As good as Rudock has looked in the last two games, I don't think that's sustainable.

[The Oracle]

I think we'll run like crap(for the most part), will be able to move the ball in the air and throw in enough Peppers to get the job done on offense. I think 20+ gets us the win.