Michigan at Penn State, 11/21, Noon, ABC National

[Prime2]

Quick public service announcement regarding Saturday's games:

If UM beats PSU and any Michigan fan roots for MSU to beat OSU, they should be purged from the fanbase immediately and never welcomed back. I doubt that applies to anyone here but my morning commute was filled with this nonsense on the radio. GTFO if you are rooting for Sparty on Saturday.

While I wait at the airport in Panama waiting for my flight back to Miami, I must admit, I've been wrestling with the notion.

Dantonio & Meyer have both has displayed a propensity for coronary heart disease. In case of the former, real and in the later, imagined. So, expect trama teams to be to be well-positioned on both sidelines. Hell I bet, Meyer doesn't even show on the 28th and Fickell ends up taking another beating instead.

[lineygoblue]

Moonlighting again, Prime?
:-)

[Prime2]

No Liney, I'm a Dr. of Love not medicine.

Nothing can be finer than MSU & Ohio A&M beating the shit out of each other this weekend!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Couple of new Monday posts up at mgoblog (after a morning of the web site crashing).

The D only gave up 20 points in regulation. Plenty of DCs out there that, in the modern CFB era, care only about one defensive stat and that is points allowed. (paraphrased)

I guess you'd expect most M homers to agree with that, so, there is that. The one thing that does fly in the face of Mike Leaches face (he said he does not care about TOP) is this:

So Kevin Wilson had a plan, or at least half of a plan. The plan: be on the field forever going fast and get Michigan tired out and then get guys who had never played before locked on the field. Sometimes the other half of the plan consisted of watching Michigan score quick touchdowns, but this quickly devolved into a replay of that one Denard-vs-Indiana game. You know, the one where Indiana went on Ishtar-length scoring drives. After those drives Michigan would get the ball back and Denard would immediately run 75 yards. Repeat until dizzy. Continue repeating until vomiting. Implement yet further repeating until unconscious.

Michigan did have a ten play touchdown drive at the beginning of the second quarter, but the rest of their drives before the one-minute drill lasted 4, 3, 2, and 3 plays. Two of those were touchdowns, so hooray for that, but as that was going on this is what Indiana was doing:

• 9 plays, 29 yards
• 11 plays, 53 yards
• 17(!) plays, 71 yards
• 8 plays, 41 yards
• 5 plays, 24 yards
• 7 plays, 61 yards

None of those drives took as long as the Michigan 10 plays drive; Indiana got that 17 play drive off in just 5:22 of clock time.

The pace and inability to get off the field murdered the beat-up Michigan defensive line. Wilson's decision to go for three separate fourth down attempts, two of which succeeded, contributed to the downward spiral of the Michigan defense and directly led to Michigan's punch-drunk second half. On the third, Wilson threw a screen on third and ten with every intention of going for it on the ensuing fourth and short.

Fire Kevin Wilson immediately, please.

Possessing the ball and running a lot of plays is a good thing irrespective of TOP ...... as long as your scoring points. I think Rodriquez has a problem in this regard as well.

When you get right down to it, despite a significant, what I would call strategic gambit by IU's Kevin Wilson in this game, at the tactical level, DJ Durkin won the battle. He's gotten his defense to do that twice now in games played against prolific offenses and QBs and RBs that made his defense look shaky at best. The key here is making big plays when they count. M's D has done that, none bigger than Hill's PBU to win the game.

I feel better.

Back to PSU ...... what does this mean? It means that the D is going to face another good QB/RB combo in Happy Valley but the Glasgowless front 7, even when it's going to get rode hard and put away wet, most likely isn't going to allow PSU to score a lot of points.

I also think that the we'll see more of Hurst and Henry at NT and a whole lot less of Stroble and Poggi (Oracle, you were right about Poggi practicing with the DL during the pre-game; I was right that he should have been kept on the bench as a TE - he was awful wherever they stuck him on the DL). Another failed DJD experiment (like not putting RJS at Buck and putting Ross there instead) although one of necessity I guess.

The only problem with that is the short rotation Durkin has at his disposal. I guess the offense could scheme to eat up some clock with nice 13+ play drives that take 6-8 minutes and ALWAYS end up with a TD but it seems a shame to waste Jake's new Tom Brady capability.

[iam416]

When you get right down to it, despite a significant, what I would call strategic gambit by IU's Kevin Wilson in this game, at the tactical level, DJ Durkin won the battle. He's gotten his defense to do that twice now in games played against prolific offenses and QBs and RBs that made his defense look shaky at best. The key here is making big plays when they count. M's D has done that, none bigger than Hill's PBU to win the game.

That strikes me as remarkably fucking daft. That's like crediting Fickell with "winning the battle" in 2013 because OSU stopped M on the 2pt conversion after 59 minutes of a fucking clownshow.

And IU ain't prolific. Sorry. And I have no clue who the other prolific offense he won against. MSU?

The only problem with that is the short rotation Durkin has at his disposal. I guess the offense could scheme to eat up some clock with nice 13+ play drives that take 6-8 minutes and ALWAYS end up with a TD but it seems a shame to waste Jake's new Tom Brady capability.

This has to be tongue-in-cheek.

[WM Wolverine]

Great point on the fatigue of M's defensive line. I assumed it was a factor though it might've been a much larger factor than I thought...

IMO a larger failing then that of the M defense was M's offense inability to sustain drives against a truly awful Indiana defense. In the second half M had just 3 points till the game tying TD in the last seconds. If M doesn't curl up into a ball and play so conservatively, maybe the defensive line doesn't get worn out and is able to slow down the Hoosiers a couple more times.

[Jeff Buchanan]

That strikes me as remarkably fucking daft

Maybe I didn't make this clear. I'd rather have a MF run stopping INT and turnover generating defense that got turnovers first and baring that, 3-&-outs on every opponent possession. That's not going to happen.

What I'm saying here is that when you can't do that, and clearly, I believe DJD thought he was going to have problems with the entire range of IU offensive weapons at Wilson's disposal, you have to rely on big plays that usually are going to and should happen in the red zone. This concept involves taking bigger risks as the field shortens.

First, that happens as a matter of physical geography (the Ss can play up closer to the LOS). Second, you do what you can scheme wise, adjusting play in through play out, not strategic pregame scheme planning, to put your players in position for big plays.

Hill being in position to make the play he did on Paige was not only great athleticism but it was showing Hill what keys to watch and how to defend THAT play when he's in-game and on the sidelines.

So, what I mean is if you're going to have happen what happened to M v. IU, then help your players make the big plays at times that count. I'd have to say, the M defense has done that and I have to credit it to DJD based on what kinds of things I hear players say after the game.

And IU ain't prolific. Sorry. And I have no clue who the other prolific offense he won against. MSU?

What I'm talking about here is the prolific offensive numbers run up in back to back games against M's D by both the Minny and IU games. Totally out of character for the Gophers on their side of the ball and to a lesser degree but still out of character on IU's and totally out of character for M's D.

This has to be tongue-in-cheek.

Nope. Rudock just set the M record for TDs in a game, albeit aided by OT. But still pretty remarkable. And, what has he done in the last two games? 750 yards of pin-point passing and a TD to INT ration of 8-1. I also think he's completing better than 70% with a >10ypp average. I'd say he is definitely if not right with, better than Brady at his stage in his college career.

I'd also have to point out that as frustrating as it was to watch the M offense bang into IU's 10 man fronts, I was surprised to see that Harbaugh sent in something like 46 pass plays out of 74 during the game. IOW, Harbaugh clearly was taking what the IU defense was giving him and that was the long ball. I haven't seen a stat on how many there were, say > 20 yards downfield, but my sense is that it was at least a 1/3 of them ...... and who of all QBs noted for not being able to throw the long ball or any ball accurately for that matter came through with big throw after big throw.

Yeah, Tom Brady would be mighty happy with young Jake's performance in the last two games. Who was it that said passing is better than running, every day, all day? It wasn't Bo or his prot?g? Jim Harbaugh, that much I know.

[WM Wolverine]

[pre]
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1996 Michigan Big Ten QB 2 3 5 60.0 26 5.2 -3.8 0 1 63.7
1997 Michigan Big Ten QB 4 12 15 80.0 103 6.9 6.9 0 0 137.7
1998 Michigan Big Ten QB 12 200 323 61.9 2427 7.5 7.0 14 10 133.1
*1999 Michigan Big Ten QB 11 180 295 61.0 2217 7.5 7.7 16 6 138.0
Career Michigan 395 638 61.9 4773 7.5 7.2 30 17 134.9[/pre]

[WM Wolverine]

Relative to the era of when they played, Brady comes out ahead but it's much closer than I would've guessed.

[iam416]

So, what I mean is if you're going to have happen what happened to M v. IU, then help your players make the big plays at times that count. I'd have to say, the M defense has done that and I have to credit it to DJD based on what kinds of things I hear players say after the game.

It's all contingent, right? I mean, DJD's defense got its shit pushed in with the game on the line and then gave up a 2pt conversion. If M doesn't convert on 4th and 5 then he lost. Then with the game on the line in the first OT, same thing. Agan, the offense bails him out. Finally he stopped them -- mostly because IU didn't give the ball to Howard.

As I said, I don't really credit Fickell -- in any way -- with his defensive effort against M in 2013...even though, hey, they made the big play!!!!

And, I'm sorry, Minnesota is not a prolific offense. No explanation will change that.

I'd say he is definitely if not right with, better than Brady at his stage in his college career.

You can't be serious. First, JR is a enior ... so there is not "at this stage in his college career" -- you're saying he's flat out better than Brady. The Tom Brady who was fantastic at Penn State against a real defense. The Tom Brady who was fantastic in the Orange Bowl against a real defense. Jesus.

I can only imagine how great you'd think your QB is if he played in the B12. Seth Russell put up video game numbers for Baylor until he was got hurt. That makes him great if you ignore the opponents.

But, in any event, with a M defense that always makes the clutch plays and Tom Brady, Jr. playing QB, I gotta say, my CFP prediction looks really, really, really good.

[iam416]

I'll also note that JTB's career numbers destroy Brady's. I mean, shit, he threw for more TDs as a redshirt frosh than Brady did in his entire career. And we're not even talking running! Total blowout. Not even comparable. JTB >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Brady

By time it's all said and done, JTB will have numbers that probably surpass everyone in the entire history of the B10. He's currently at 42/13 (TD/Int) with another 19 rushing TDs. 3400 yards passing, 1300 yards rushing...with 2 more full seasons left (barring injury). He could end up with 100 TD passes, 40 TDs running, 10,000 yards passing and 3000 yards rushing.

[Jeff Buchanan]

..... But, in any event, with a M defense that always makes the clutch plays and Tom Brady, Jr. playing QB, I gotta say, my CFP prediction looks really, really, really good.

I really, really, really hope I have the opportunity to post this after the conclusion of the osu game.

WM ..... thanks for those numbers. Did I miss Jake's QBR in the last two games? I can't find it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'll also note that JTB's career numbers destroy Brady's. I mean, shit, he threw for more TDs as a redshirt frosh than Brady did in his entire career. And we're not even talking running! Total blowout. Not even comparable. JTB >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Brady

By time it's all said and done, JTB will have numbers that probably surpass everyone in the entire history of the B10. He's currently at 42/13 (TD/Int) with another 19 rushing TDs. 3400 yards passing, 1300 yards rushing...with 2 more full seasons left (barring injury). He could end up with 100 TD passes, 40 TDs running, 10,000 yards passing and 3000 yards rushing.

As WM stated, different era.

I won't try to argue with you one v. one (JTB v. JR or TB) and it is a stretch to compare Jake with Brady but it's close given M's style of play in 96-99 and there style of play now.

[iam416]

it is a stretch to compare Jake with Brady but it's close

Either it's a stretch or it's close. :-)

Smart move avoiding JTB comparisons.

[WingsFan]

Neither player played another football down. Caution (Hoke has some comments about the hit)


[ame]https://youtu.be/z0jMWdL4ZR8[/ame]