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Here's the problem with your prediction, v. mine (M by 6).
The unpredictable.
Ummm. Didn't I say:
If the game plays out in the fat part of the bell curve, M wins by 17. Some quirky shit could happen that could turn this into a game, but that's far less likely.
Your prediction is that the less likely will occur (the "unpredictable"), fair enough. My prediction is that the most likely (IMO) will occur. I don't view that as a "problem" with my prediction, but rather as a strength.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
The evidence suggests that JH and his staff have done a remarkable job with Team 136. I thought the offensive play calling in the Rutgers game was astoundingly good and did, indeed, optimize what M does well and minimize what it does not do well. But ...... Rutgers.
Aside from getting too conservative toward the end in the MSU win ..... er, loss .... M did a great job in minimizing the impact of Cook to Burbridge while protecting Rudock (optimizing I guess) and had that game won until, that.
So, yeah, I get what you are saying here but I don't like the impact of shit happens. I can see that being a problem on the road in Bloomington.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
....... Your prediction is that the less likely will occur (the "unpredictable"), fair enough. My prediction is that the most likely (IMO) will occur. I don't view that as a "problem" with my prediction, but rather as a strength.
Black Swan Theory.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
I think UM should win but once again the match up isn't good. Michigan likes to run the ball and can't consistently pass but we face a defense that actually can stop the run a bit but has a horrible secondary. I just think the physicality of UM will wear out video game Indiana.
Yeah, it's interesting. M's run game is statistically not good. They're 66th in yards/game and 71st in yards/attempt. And the stats, in this case, aren't lying. It's not a particularly good running game.
Indiana is meh against the run -- roughly same spots that M's run offense is -- but they definitely have "not IU" talent on the DL. But IU is god awful against the pass. Only KU gives up more passing yards per game.
This is actually a game where Rudock can have lots of success.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
.....This is actually a game where Rudock can have lots of success.
Which Jake Rudock are you talking about?
The guy had a career day v. Rutgers. BFD ..... Rutgers.
I like JR. Fine guy, team player, loyal, hard worker, all that stuff but he is NOT a play maker. M's coaches have to plan around his deficiencies and did a fine job of it, against Rutgers. ONE GAME having done not so great a job in the previous 8.
If I'm IU's DC, I use that "not IU" DL and blitz the crap out of him reminding your LBs and Ss about the screen. If you pressure Jake, if you beat the screens, you beat M's offense because they sure as shit can't run the ball or throw it well enough to back the Ss out and give a chance for the run game to work ..... even then, I'm not sure it's going to work as it didn't look very good at all against Rutgers.
So, there are plenty of chances for not only the Black Swan theory to apply but for the offense to lay the kind of egg they laid at Minny, on the road.
Look, I'm an optimist, glass half full and all that. I'm an M homer. I'm also a practical analyst and a believer in match-ups, unit v. unit. In those two aspects, practicality and unit match-ups, I don't see things as favorably as some with regard to M's win probabilities.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
The evidence suggests that JH and his staff have done a remarkable job with Team 136. I thought the offensive play calling in the Rutgers game was astoundingly good and did, indeed, optimize what M does well and minimize what it does not do well. But ...... Rutgers.
No. IU melted down against Rutgers. I also don't think Ole Miss is better than Alabama.
But even if you did think Rutgers was better, the Rutgers team that rallied to beat IU had Leonte Carroo and his 150+ yards and 3 TDs. He's a big deal for that offense. Rutgers without Carroo is just fucking awful.That's the Rutgers that played M.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
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