Michigan @ Indiana, 11/14, 3:30p EST, ABC - ESPN/ESPN2 Mirror.

[iam416]

Here's the problem with your prediction, v. mine (M by 6).

The unpredictable.

Ummm. Didn't I say:

If the game plays out in the fat part of the bell curve, M wins by 17. Some quirky shit could happen that could turn this into a game, but that's far less likely.

Your prediction is that the less likely will occur (the "unpredictable"), fair enough. My prediction is that the most likely (IMO) will occur. I don't view that as a "problem" with my prediction, but rather as a strength.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... Trust Harbaugh in this one.

The evidence suggests that JH and his staff have done a remarkable job with Team 136. I thought the offensive play calling in the Rutgers game was astoundingly good and did, indeed, optimize what M does well and minimize what it does not do well. But ...... Rutgers.

Aside from getting too conservative toward the end in the MSU win ..... er, loss .... M did a great job in minimizing the impact of Cook to Burbridge while protecting Rudock (optimizing I guess) and had that game won until, that.

So, yeah, I get what you are saying here but I don't like the impact of shit happens. I can see that being a problem on the road in Bloomington.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... Your prediction is that the less likely will occur (the "unpredictable"), fair enough. My prediction is that the most likely (IMO) will occur. I don't view that as a "problem" with my prediction, but rather as a strength.

Black Swan Theory.

[Prime2]

Indiana is 4-5, (0-5) in conference play. They have clearly demonstrated that they are an inferior team and clearly so.

Sure they lost a few close ones to superior teams but their record can't be any clearer.

Michigan cruises in the 4th thanks to superior coaching, superior Talent and common fucking sense.

[klondike]

I think UM should win but once again the match up isn't good. Michigan likes to run the ball and can't consistently pass but we face a defense that actually can stop the run a bit but has a horrible secondary. I just think the physicality of UM will wear out video game Indiana.

[iam416]

Yeah, it's interesting. M's run game is statistically not good. They're 66th in yards/game and 71st in yards/attempt. And the stats, in this case, aren't lying. It's not a particularly good running game.

Indiana is meh against the run -- roughly same spots that M's run offense is -- but they definitely have "not IU" talent on the DL. But IU is god awful against the pass. Only KU gives up more passing yards per game.

This is actually a game where Rudock can have lots of success.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.....This is actually a game where Rudock can have lots of success.

Which Jake Rudock are you talking about?

The guy had a career day v. Rutgers. BFD ..... Rutgers.

I like JR. Fine guy, team player, loyal, hard worker, all that stuff but he is NOT a play maker. M's coaches have to plan around his deficiencies and did a fine job of it, against Rutgers. ONE GAME having done not so great a job in the previous 8.

If I'm IU's DC, I use that "not IU" DL and blitz the crap out of him reminding your LBs and Ss about the screen. If you pressure Jake, if you beat the screens, you beat M's offense because they sure as shit can't run the ball or throw it well enough to back the Ss out and give a chance for the run game to work ..... even then, I'm not sure it's going to work as it didn't look very good at all against Rutgers.

So, there are plenty of chances for not only the Black Swan theory to apply but for the offense to lay the kind of egg they laid at Minny, on the road.

Look, I'm an optimist, glass half full and all that. I'm an M homer. I'm also a practical analyst and a believer in match-ups, unit v. unit. In those two aspects, practicality and unit match-ups, I don't see things as favorably as some with regard to M's win probabilities.

[Prime2]

The Hoosiers rank No. 120 nationally in total defense, allowing 504 yards per game -- including a ridiculous 330 passing yards per contest.

[THE_WIZARD_]

M rolls 34-13

[SeattleLionsFan]

I like how Jeff leaves out BYU and Northwestern as anomalys because they don't fit with his hypothesis.

.

[Prime2]

504 yards per game!

That's like Tipping the Toledos at 504 lbs, of course that was way before Hack joined the Jared Fogle Sandwich Club!

[Mike]

Only 504 yards per game!? RichRod might try to poach their DC.

[The Oracle]

I like how Jeff leaves out BYU and Northwestern as anomalys because they don't fit with his hypothesis.

.

Jeff Buchannibal.

[The Oracle]

The evidence suggests that JH and his staff have done a remarkable job with Team 136. I thought the offensive play calling in the Rutgers game was astoundingly good and did, indeed, optimize what M does well and minimize what it does not do well. But ...... Rutgers.

Indiana is worse than Rutgers.

[iam416]

No. IU melted down against Rutgers. I also don't think Ole Miss is better than Alabama.

But even if you did think Rutgers was better, the Rutgers team that rallied to beat IU had Leonte Carroo and his 150+ yards and 3 TDs. He's a big deal for that offense. Rutgers without Carroo is just fucking awful.That's the Rutgers that played M.